Phillies 2016-2017 offseason Discussion

zambonir 2016-11-14 20:36:42 UTC #461

It's certainly better than bringing back Morton or another "B" option. If they don't try to sign him hopefully the deadline deal will work out for everyone - Phillies get a good return, Hellickson gets to be in the postseason, and he's free of the QO system.

I wonder if they will try to trade one of the second-tier young starters, perhaps even as soon as Friday (if the 40 space is tight).

Philsmania 2016-11-14 20:57:50 UTC #462

Yes, 40 man roster space is now a big problem between Hellickson staying and the acquisition of Kendrick for Ruf who was going to be non-tendered. Two less spots. In the end, the QO attached to Hellickson cost us both prospects we could have acquired in exchange for him and a prospect we will probably lose in the Rule 5. Good riddance to the QO in the next CBA. Maybe they'll non-tender Gomez? Mackanin wold probably have to be dragged kicking and screaming to that one.

zambonir 2016-11-14 21:35:24 UTC #463

I don't think the QO is going anywhere. The owners like it. It will just get tweaked again, unless the players make a big concession in some other way (which is certainly possible). But no compensation at all is a slippery slope to truly unrestricted free agency (which I have no problem with, but I'm not an owner).

David_Criss 2016-11-14 21:48:34 UTC #464

The Phillies have seven spots on the 40-man. Luis Garcia, J. Gomez, C. Asche, Mariot and Klein can all easily be non-tendered. We know they were going to add an established starter and they did with Hellickson. I'd rather trade Ruf for Kendrick than give up a draft pick and a ton of years and money for Desmond.

julio 2016-11-14 21:56:30 UTC #465

Add David Buchanan to the list of "see ya laters." He's out of options, and he's not going to make the Opening Day roster - so he's going to be outrighted; might as well do it in November as in March.

zambonir 2016-11-14 22:35:39 UTC #466

Asche will be interesting.Gomez too. I don't think they'll let Gomez go for nothing though. He'll end up signing a deal before arbitration that is manageable or tradeable.

Remember, they aren't going to actually lose most of the players they don't protect.

Philsmania 2016-11-14 22:44:59 UTC #467

If they outright all of them, that would get them down to 27, enough room to protect all of the guys they need to protect and perhaps have a spot to spare for their own annual Rule 5 selection (they pick someone pretty much every year). I would be surprised if they non-tender Gomez, though. Mackanin loves him and he was good for about 2/3 of a season, very good in April, May, stumbled in June, very good in July, began to fade in August and the wheels completely came off in September (19.13 ERA, 3.250 WHIP).

EDmuch 2016-11-15 03:37:10 UTC #468

For the love of Ty Cobb, why would we waste a 40 man roster spot on Asche. No one is going to claim him.

zambonir 2016-11-15 06:20:52 UTC #469

I don't think that's true. It's probably more likely Cody Asche would get claimed then it is some of the potential Rule V guys will get taken. But it doesn't matter. If they aren't planning to tender him, no reason to keep him (it's also possible he wouldn't get claimed because teams know they could have another shot at him as a non-tender). However, it's seems possible - probable, even - that they value him as a bench player, especially because he'll have an option left.

He could also still be a trade asset. Heck, they got something for Darin Ruf.

Squire 2016-11-15 12:56:22 UTC #470

Its not that I don't like Hellickson I just would have preferred that comp pick by a multiple of 3 for the flight path of the organization. Never have any extra comp picks. Exceptionally timid in Latin America. Its hard to be that much better than your competitors at amateur talent acquisition.

Anyway, we now have a ton of B to B+ pitching it seems at the major league level for next year.

Hellickson
Nola
Velasquez
Eickhoff
Eflin
Thompson
Asher

Followed by
Appel
Lively
Pivetta

That's a ton. If only this team could hit a little we'd win a few games. Altherr has to be better than last year coming off the injury, right?

saycheese 2016-11-15 13:15:34 UTC #471

Sounds like nobody was willing to sign him long term and give up the pick. Reasonable considering his past. I personally would think about dealing one or two of those B type arms for either a legit young everyday player or the other way for a younger arm or two that does not need to be on the 40 man

andyb 2016-11-15 13:21:52 UTC #472

Altherr should be better, but I do think they need to go after a LH bat with some power. This MLBTR article projecting the top 50 free agents has Josh Reddick at 3/36 and Michael Saunders at 3/33. If we could have either at that contract length I might be interested. No reason they could not play a little 1B too if Joseph struggled or Altherr worked out. They both have power even if their defense is slipping though they are not too old so potentially the defense can be stabilized. Of course that article predicts signing Desmond where I am just not all that interested. Great guy. Not a great fit for the club. And the comp pick of course makes it a non-starter for me.

mlbtraderumors.com/2016/11/2 ... tions.html

bigegypt0417 2016-11-15 13:26:16 UTC #473

I'm not sure how this makes sense while we've also gone from one of the 5 or 6 worst systems in baseball to easily one of the top 10 in a span of 2 years? It's almost as if this narrative flies in the face of the situation on the ground. It's possible that it's time to just come to grips with the fact the team doesn't believe in spending tons of money on a few players and spends to bring in players that fit what they're looking for.

It's really hard to continue the same narrative as every year we add more and more significant talent.

flyers19rw 2016-11-15 13:45:23 UTC #474

Desmond's splits are pretty concerning. Great first half of the season and then a steep decline. Maybe he wilted playing in the heat of Texas but maybe the league caught up to him and he regressed to his '15 performance. Pass on him.

andyb 2016-11-15 14:01:31 UTC #475

Agree. The part about fit is also that he is right handed. We have near zero left-handed power. Franco, Joseph, Altherr, Rupp. All right handed power. Herrera is really the leading LH power bat and he is more a 10-15 HR guy going forward. Even if Reddick has some platoon issues, we have Altherr. And either one could play well enough to claim a full time job potentially anyway. $36 million is also an amount we can fit on the team pretty easily. The contract would be done before we have major salary concerns for our own players.

Philsmania 2016-11-15 15:27:54 UTC #476

Same here. I think Hellickson is what he is (a middling pitcher) who had a standout season this year and I don't think he will ever be more valuable in terms of getting something in exchange for him or a comp pick in return. The stinking QO is a killer. The only benefit Hellickson will deliver in the end is the innings he eats and the burden on the young pitchers he lessens in 2015 and 2016. The hope that he was a buy low asset who will deliver us many more assets is now the stuff of mice and men.

As for Altherr, I wouldn't say Mark Texeira is the authority on this but he had the same injury and said it took him really a full 18 months to be right again. Unfortunately, if that is true for Altherr as well, this coming season will be a wipeout for him as well.

bigegypt0417 2016-11-15 15:31:56 UTC #477

Philsmania:

Squire:

Its not that I don't like Hellickson I just would have preferred that comp pick by a multiple of 3 for the flight path of the organization.

Altherr has to be better than last year coming off the injury, right?

Same here. I think Hellickson is what he is (a middling pitcher) who had a standout season this year and I don't think he will ever be more valuable in terms of getting something in exchange for him or a comp pick in return. The stinking QO is a killer. The only benefit Hellickson will deliver in the end is the innings he eats and the burden on the young pitchers he lessens in 2015 and 2016. The hope that he was a buy low asset who will deliver us many more assets is now the stuff of mice and men.

As for Altherr, I wouldn't say Mark Texeira is the authority on this but he had the same injury and said it took him really a full 18 months to be right again. Unfortunately, if that is true for Altherr as well, this coming season will be a wipeout for him as well.

If JH is having a similar season this upcoming off season we will still end up with assets for him. the Phillies were not offered anything that they thought matched a sandwich pick so they will keep rolling the dice. It's only money.

Philsmania 2016-11-15 15:33:35 UTC #478

bigegypt0417:

Squire:

Its not that I don't like Hellickson I just would have preferred that comp pick by a multiple of 3 for the flight path of the organization. Never have any extra comp picks. Exceptionally timid in Latin America. Its hard to be that much better than your competitors at amateur talent acquisition.
I'm not sure how this makes sense while we've also gone from one of the 5 or 6 worst systems in baseball to easily one of the top 10 in a span of 2 years? It's almost as if this narrative flies in the face of the situation on the ground. It's possible that it's time to just come to grips with the fact the team doesn't believe in spending tons of money on a few players and spends to bring in players that fit what they're looking for.

It's really hard to continue the same narrative as every year we add more and more significant talent.

The problem with the pharm is that there is exceptional depth but no stars. We'll be looking at a team filled with Polancos, Ruizes, Victorinos and Moyers but no Howards, Rollinses, Utleys or Hamelses and that's a problem. When was the last time MLB had a "whole is greater than the sum of its parts" champion?

bigegypt0417 2016-11-15 15:38:41 UTC #479

Philsmania:

bigegypt0417:

Squire:

Its not that I don't like Hellickson I just would have preferred that comp pick by a multiple of 3 for the flight path of the organization. Never have any extra comp picks. Exceptionally timid in Latin America. Its hard to be that much better than your competitors at amateur talent acquisition.
I'm not sure how this makes sense while we've also gone from one of the 5 or 6 worst systems in baseball to easily one of the top 10 in a span of 2 years? It's almost as if this narrative flies in the face of the situation on the ground. It's possible that it's time to just come to grips with the fact the team doesn't believe in spending tons of money on a few players and spends to bring in players that fit what they're looking for.

It's really hard to continue the same narrative as every year we add more and more significant talent.

The problem with the pharm is that there is exceptional depth but no stars. We'll be looking at a team filled with Polancos, Ruizes, Victorinos and Moyers but no Howards, Rollinses, Utleys or Hamelses and that's a problem. When was the last time MLB had a "whole is greater than the sum of its parts" champion?

and again, that flies in the face of what's happening on the ground. If you are ignoring the level of players making their way through the system I would say its to fit your narrative.

flyers19rw 2016-11-15 15:50:51 UTC #480

Looking at Hellickson's past performance, he did well in '11 and '12 with the Rays. In '13 he developed elbow issues which took him down a bit from his previous seasons. His elbow was operated on in January, '14 and wrecked that season for him. In '15 he was coming back with a bad AZ team and perhaps showing the rust from missing the previous season. Last year he did well. Perhaps last season was a return to his '11 and '12 form with a healthy arm?