Phillies 2016-2017 offseason Discussion

Philsmania 2016-11-07 15:34:03 UTC #381

It just so happens that they are the team's most valuable "assets" at present, especially considering the premium that teams pay to acquire young, cost-controlled talent. Obviously, trading any of them would bring back a significant number of assets in exchange. Trading them might turn out to be right if they feel that one of them has pretty much reached his potential (like Cosart when the Astros traded him) or if one of them is somewhat fungible (Neris?). Having said that, the riskiest one to trade since he has the most upside is probably Velasquez, unless his arm really is a ticking time bomb.

bigegypt0417 2016-11-07 15:42:33 UTC #382

VV has a very scary arm in terms of ability and risk. If you can get back that one offensive thumper for the middle of the line-up you have to think about it. By that I mean a major offensive prospect. I would see if there is any possibility the red sox would move Moncada or Benintendi. It would have to be a top 10 prospect plus other pieces.

zambonir 2016-11-07 15:46:57 UTC #383

Yup, the key to Velasquez would be either, A) you're so certain he's going to miss two years at some point (one of the surgery, one to bounce back) that he's more valuable to a team that needs him more right this minute or B) you get back a surefire future everyday position player (which is easier said than done) as well a few younger arms.

Probably still a little early to trade Herrera. Anyway, of course they are listening.

andyb 2016-11-07 15:58:46 UTC #384

With Neris I definitely listen. He may have pitched better than his true talent level this year. A little divided on Herrera. It might depend on their feelings about whether Quinn can start now. They would still have Altherr as a backup and remember that Altherr could be a plus CF with his defense even if he hits .230.

VV is high risk/high reward. As BE said the return needs to be extremely high. He could grow into a Max Scherzer. Or he could get hurt constantly and never reach his potential. He does not seem to be the guy that settles into 200 IP of consistent 3rd starter status. In my mind he is a 1/2 if healthy or more of a back end guy that always gets hurt. I don't want to deal him but I certainly listen.

flyers19rw 2016-11-07 16:26:19 UTC #385

Opposing GMs might still be enthralled with VV's April 14th start against San Diego. If a Moncada, Schwarber, Benintendi type could be had for him in return, it could be a doable transaction.
The system has players at all other positions that could be more than adequate major leaguers. My concern is that the big hole in the Phillies' roster looks to be front end starters. How does moving VV for another bat resolve that problem?

Austinfan 2016-11-07 16:39:14 UTC #386

You listen to offers for anyone, "make me an offer I can't refuse."

I think there may be some players who aren't good in the lockerroom or who aren't coachable that they might sell high before the grapevine makes those flaws common knowledge. Not suggesting that applies to those three, just that at times there are issues that don't surface until later.

However, when you're rebuilding, there's no reason to make a trade just to make a trade when it involves players with upside, in effect you're just trading one gamble for another. Trading Herrera is unlikely simply because you'd have to get an OF back, Quinn and Cozens are unknowns, and Moniak, Ortiz and Randolph are a long time coming.

One reason I don't expect much to happen this winter is the performance at Lehigh next year will answer a lot of questions, and make it easier for Klentak to figure out who to include in a "blockbuster" trade. If Joseph and Hoskins both hit well, one will be included in a trade package, if Altherr rebounds, Cozens steps up, etc. If the young pitchesr improve, there will be an excess arm or two that can be included in a package. It'll be much easier next winter to project the 2018 lineup, know who is blocked, and where they need an upgrade.

zambonir 2016-11-07 16:41:43 UTC #387

It's just hard for me to imagine the Phillies in April with Altherr and Quinn as two of the three starters. Alther could be your CF for a while but you'd still have to fill those corners. Though,I suppose Herrera could get you back someone who was more advanced than Quinn or Williams.

Ultimately, the front end starters probably come via trades or free agency. Seems to me you never know where they are going to come from internally anyway. Sure, there are obviously differences in stuff, but the next Kluber/Arrieta/Keuchel isn't necessarily an obvious "ace" (maybe it's Eickhoff).

bigegypt0417 2016-11-07 16:42:11 UTC #388

Austinfan:

You listen to offers for anyone, "make me an offer I can't refuse."

I think there may be some players who aren't good in the lockerroom or who aren't coachable that they might sell high before the grapevine makes those flaws common knowledge. Not suggesting that applies to those three, just that at times there are issues that don't surface until later.

However, when you're rebuilding, there's no reason to make a trade just to make a trade when it involves players with upside, in effect you're just trading one gamble for another. Trading Herrera is unlikely simply because you'd have to get an OF back, Quinn and Cozens are unknowns, and Moniak, Ortiz and Randolph are a long time coming.

One reason I don't expect much to happen this winter is the performance at Lehigh next year will answer a lot of questions, and make it easier for Klentak to figure out who to include in a "blockbuster" trade. If Joseph and Hoskins both hit well, one will be included in a trade package, if Altherr rebounds, Cozens steps up, etc. If the young pitchesr improve, there will be an excess arm or two that can be included in a package. It'll be much easier next winter to project the 2018 lineup, know who is blocked, and where they need an upgrade.

I think you're building a scenario based on how the old fashioned GM did things. You don't wait to see how things go at AAA for a year to decide if you need to make moves or not. also, no one is advocating making deals for the sake of making deals.

I expect the leadership of this team to make moves that make us better even if that means trading guys we may think should stay.

donaldorc 2016-11-07 16:43:20 UTC #389

I don't want to trade any of them. Even if I agree with the rationale presented above.

julio 2016-11-07 16:43:43 UTC #390

schooldoc 2016-11-07 16:52:19 UTC #391

Non-Phillies at this point, but of interest: Chooch to Seattle? Ugh.

philly.com/philly/sports/LA- ... iners.html

schooldoc 2016-11-07 16:55:48 UTC #392

Keith Law has posted his top 50 free agents column over at ESPN, behind the Insider pay wall.

He ranks Hellickson #12, thinks Phils should offer QO, and estimates a possible 3-year/$42-45 million deal as his market value. I tend to agree on all counts. I do think JH gets that deal elsewhere.

The market looks thin, of course. But it does have quite a few options for a platoon/4th OF type, which the Phils may well be looking for. Some names:

Josh Reddick (probably a little high-end)
Carlos Gomez
Jon Jay
Michael Saunders
Colby Rasmus

The market for starters is really thin. If the Phils want a vet starter, they may well have to trade for one. But there may be a reliever or two in the FA market that they'll look at. Possibilities:

Brett Cecil
Andrew Cashner (if you convert him from starter's role)
Greg Holland

I also think Charlie Morton remains a possibility. Law really spoke well of what he saw in Morton's limited time with the Phils.

donaldorc 2016-11-07 17:35:27 UTC #393

The fact that the market for starters is thin really works in Hellickson's favor. In spite of the fact that I hope he will accept the QO, he's more than likely out of here.

andyb 2016-11-07 18:01:58 UTC #394

Saunders clearly interests me though the dropoff in his defense is a concern. I'd probably want him over Reddick and Rasmus though not sure what the dollar amount will be.

I think Hellickson gets more than that estimate. It is just a thin market and Hellickson is young enough and the type of pitcher that should age fairly well (reasonably athletic, does not rely too much on velocity, young for a FA). I think he gets at least 4 years, maybe an option on top of that.

EDmuch 2016-11-07 19:57:02 UTC #395

I would take Rasmus.

EDmuch 2016-11-07 20:00:36 UTC #396

Glad they are putting Herrrera on the market. I think he is at peak value.

olgrandad 2016-11-07 20:07:50 UTC #397

I'm leaning in that direction, too.

Squire 2016-11-07 21:05:56 UTC #398

Salisbury confirms that Hellickson has received the QO from the Phillies.
Glad.

Philsmania 2016-11-07 21:24:02 UTC #399

Using the eye test, Herrera at times does some bonehead things. Plus, whether or not one approves of the comments that Mackanin made about him, they may raise questions about Herrera's "coachability". Having said that, he handled the position change very well last season. And, it's always possible that he and Mackanin are just an oil and water combination.

Austinfan 2016-11-07 21:36:15 UTC #400

Herrera is a perfect example why it's hard to get full value for young players with upside.
The first half he was a hands down allstar, the second half he regressed, then bounced back at the end of the season.
The problem is he became selective, pitchers then stopped nibbling and attacked the inside of the plate, he eventually adjusted but wasn't the same as the first half.
So who is the real Herrera?
Rebuilding teams needs patience because they're looking to develop top performers, not just adequate starters.

Kluber is a perfect example, if you have a bunch of solid arms, don't panic if they struggle for a couple years in the high minors, or their first shot in the Show, they often need to refine their mechanics and their stuff, then make a quantum leap to the next level - or not. The judgment call comes in deciding when they've exhausted their talent, and intangibles may factor into that call, a hard working kid who works on his weaknesses is probably more likely to have a long career than a talented but uncoachable kid who'd rather party. Buth then there's Asche, who from all reports has the intangibles but they've never shown up on the field.

What Klentak needs is a first rate crystal ball!