Phillies 2016-2017 offseason Discussion

[bkeich]

Glad they are putting Herrrera on the market. I think he is at peak value.

Using the eye test, Herrera at times does some bonehead things. Plus, whether or not one approves of the comments that Mackanin made about him, they may raise questions about Herrera's "coachability". Having said that, he handled the position change very well last season. And, it's always possible that he and Mackanin are just an oil and water combination.

True, but I think much of this is overblown at this point. Herrera has been our best player for 2 years, I think we all hoped that Franco would be "the guy" but he really came up a little short of that last season. Our Manager is not exactly the best manager out there, he is actually probably in the bottom third, so I am not too concerned about whether the players are working well with him as he is not long for the job. Herrera has outplayed any reasonable expectation, so I am not too concerned about his coachability, it can't be that bad.

There is no way I would trade him at this point to be honest. He is our only OF that is a sure bet to start, with Altherr probable and then who knows.

Trading Herrera to me would be a step towards becoming the Montreal Expos, the team that "grew" players until they were ready to graduate to solid Major League teams. The return would have to be astronomical to even consider it.

[EDmuch]

I don't see how trading Herrera is a step backward until we see what we get for him. If we don't get something of great value, we keep him. Personally I think the Phils are going to turn CF over to Quinn and Herrera does not have enough power for corner OF position.

[andyb]

I don't see how trading Herrera is a step backward until we see what we get for him. If we don't get something of great value, we keep him. Personally I think the Phils are going to turn CF over to Quinn and Herrera does not have enough power for corner OF position.

Quinn is the reason trading Herrera is not necessarily a step backward. Same with Rupp and Galvis. The reason is we might be replacing them with prospects who could be better. Trading Franco and Velasquez are potentially backward steps since we don't necessarily have other prospects near ready that can do what they do. Big difference.

[Slinging_Southpaw]

Glad they are putting Herrrera on the market. I think he is at peak value.

I don't think we've scratched the surface.
If you could drill in the same message they did with Galvis last season(STOP TAP DANCING IN THE BATTERS BOX!!), I think you'd see a consistent All-Star. Right now, he gets himself out too much.

[julio]

In the Rule 5 Draft Considerations thread, Slinging Southpaw wrote:

Ruf is under team control through the 2019 season.

Well...only if he's on the 25-man active roster. Ruf is out of options, so he either sticks on the major-league active roster, or he has to be waived; if he were to clear outright waivers, he has the service time to become a minor-league free agent.

Furthermore, 2017-2019 will be Ruf's age 30-32 seasons. If Ruf were to make the Opening Day roster, as of now, he would be the oldest position player on the roster, and the second-oldest player overall (after Pat Neshek). At best, you're talking about a space holder for a younger player. Given that we have Tommy Joseph, who is five years younger, at the only position Ruf can really play, it really doesn't make much sense to me to even think about Ruf's making the Opening Day roster...maybe if Joseph somehow winds up on the DL, but other than that?

[Slinging_Southpaw]

In the Rule 5 Draft Considerations thread, Slinging Southpaw wrote:

Ruf is under team control through the 2019 season.

Well...only if he's on the 25-man active roster. Ruf is out of options, so he either sticks on the major-league active roster, or he has to be waived; if he were to clear outright waivers, he has the service time to become a minor-league free agent.

Furthermore, 2017-2019 will be Ruf's age 30-32 seasons. If Ruf were to make the Opening Day roster, as of now, he would be the oldest position player on the roster, and the second-oldest player overall (after Pat Neshek). At best, you're talking about a space holder for a younger player. Given that we have Tommy Joseph, who is five years younger, at the only position Ruf can really play, it really doesn't make much sense to me to even think about Ruf's making the Opening Day roster...maybe if Joseph somehow winds up on the DL, but other than that?

I would put him in Left Field. I know he's not a gazelle like Brandon Moss, who others have suggested, but with Quinn, Williams and Cozens at AAA, what we be the point of paying a free agent to fill that spot?
I would also carry Asche, playing back-up at 3B/1B/OF.

[BostonRoss]

A couple of years ago, I thought the Phillies should give Ruf a shot in LF. He is bad out there, but most of the good Phillies teams in my lifetime had defensively deficient left fielders. Given the need to rebuild, I thought it was worth giving him a shot to see if he could hit enough to make it worthwhile.

But I think his time has past now. He'll be 31 in July, and while not given a lot of playing time the past couple of seasons, he has been mediocre at the plate, and downright poor against RHP. The odds of him becoming a good player may never have been that high, but at this point they are pretty bad. I'd find someone with more upside now, preferably with more defensive flexibility.

If Ruf has a role on a MLB team, it's probably on a decent AL team who can use him against LHP as a DH, PH, and sometimes 1B.

[Slinging_Southpaw]

A couple of years ago, I thought the Phillies should give Ruf a shot in LF. He is bad out there, but most of the good Phillies teams in my lifetime had defensively deficient left fielders. Given the need to rebuild, I thought it was worth giving him a shot to see if he could hit enough to make it worthwhile.

But I think his time has past now. He'll be 31 in July, and while not given a lot of playing time the past couple of seasons, he has been mediocre at the plate, and downright poor against RHP. The odds of him becoming a good player may never have been that high, but at this point they are pretty bad. I'd find someone with more upside now, preferably with more defensive flexibility.

If Ruf has a role on a MLB team, it's probably on a decent AL team who can use him against LHP as a DH, PH, and sometimes 1B.

Yes, he'll be 31 and pretty much everyone on the Free Agent market is older and will cost more.
(I'll use my inner CD) Look, I don't expect Ruf to become an All-Star, but I have little doubt that he'd give us as much or more than any of the Free Agents that won't cost you 4 years/60 million.
Maybe, given a chance, his value increases enough that we can flip him for a prospect, he's certainly inexpensive enough for any teams budget.

[zambonir]

A couple of years ago, I thought the Phillies should give Ruf a shot in LF. He is bad out there, but most of the good Phillies teams in my lifetime had defensively deficient left fielders. Given the need to rebuild, I thought it was worth giving him a shot to see if he could hit enough to make it worthwhile.

But I think his time has past now. He'll be 31 in July, and while not given a lot of playing time the past couple of seasons, he has been mediocre at the plate, and downright poor against RHP. The odds of him becoming a good player may never have been that high, but at this point they are pretty bad. I'd find someone with more upside now, preferably with more defensive flexibility.

If Ruf has a role on a MLB team, it's probably on a decent AL team who can use him against LHP as a DH, PH, and sometimes 1B.

Yes, he'll be 31 and pretty much everyone on the Free Agent market is older and will cost more.
(I'll use my inner CD) Look, I don't expect Ruf to become an All-Star, but I have little doubt that he'd give us as much or more than any of the Free Agents that won't cost you 4 years/60 million.
Maybe, given a chance, his value increases enough that we can flip him for a prospect, he's certainly inexpensive enough for any teams budget.

Ruf barely had trade value when he was AA MVP. Yes, the Phillies kept him as Howard injury insurance, but mostly they kept him because nobody ever offered anything for him.

It's not really true he'd give you as much or more as an unexciting FA; you could put Bourjos in LF again and get about the same WAR, it would just come from defense rather than offense.

[zambonir]

MLBTR predicting Desmond to Phillies (but they mention like 10 teams). Also Volquez.

mlbtraderumors.com/2016/11/2 ... tions.html

[LoneStarPhan]

MLBTR predicting Desmond to Phillies (but they mention like 10 teams). Also Volquez.

mlbtraderumors.com/2016/11/2 ... tions.html

He has QO. I don't think the Phillies gain by signing him.

[zambonir]

MLBTR predicting Desmond to Phillies (but they mention like 10 teams). Also Volquez.

mlbtraderumors.com/2016/11/2 ... tions.html

He has QO. I don't think the Phillies gain by signing him.

Well, the whole article is mostly for entertainment purposes. But if the Phillies truly really love him, he only costs a second-rounder, and they get that back from Hellickson pick. I don't really see it though, both because of the draft pick (I think they want their full pool, never mind the position of the actual picks) and his position(s).

[tom81]

The name on that list associated with the Phillies that most excites me is Greg Holland. baseball-reference.com/playe ... gr01.shtml

[bigegypt0417]

The name on that list associated with the Phillies that most excites me is Greg Holland. baseball-reference.com/playe ... gr01.shtml

Had his workout yesterday and it seems he has a little ways to go but if you can get him and he's healthy, he's the kind of guy you get a good haul for at the deadline...

[julio]

MLBTR predicting Desmond to Phillies (but they mention like 10 teams). Also Volquez.

mlbtraderumors.com/2016/11/2 ... tions.html

He has QO. I don't think the Phillies gain by signing him.

Well, the whole article is mostly for entertainment purposes. But if the Phillies truly really love him, he only costs a second-rounder, and they get that back from Hellickson pick. I don't really see it though, both because of the draft pick (I think they want their full pool, never mind the position of the actual picks) and his position(s).

If the Phils were to sign a qualified FA - Desmond or other - they would forfeit their highest unprotected pick. If Hellickson signs somewhere else, the pick that the Phils forfeit would be their compensation pick - somewhere in the mid-20s - not their second-round pick (currently #45, likely to wind up at more like #50).

[saycheese]

I'd be shocked if they signed anyone who has a QO. I am thinking they may wind up trading for a corner outfielder and starting pitcher. A little like they did with Hellickson and Morton last year.

[julio]

Phils' press release on new hires in baseball operations:

Tuesday, November 8, 2016

PHILLIES ANNOUNCE PROMOTIONS/NEW HIRES IN BASEBALL OPERATIONS

The Phillies today announced a series of promotions and hires within the Baseball Operations department.

Two new Special Assistants to the General Manager have been added for 2017, as the club has hired Bryan Minniti from the Diamondbacks and promoted Jorge Velandia from his prior position of Special Assistant, Player Personnel. Both positions will report directly to General Manager Matt Klentak. In addition, the club has hired Geoff Miller to serve as Mental Skills Coach and Natan Weinberger to serve as Analyst, Baseball Research & Development.

The club has also expanded its international Baseball Operations efforts. Greg McMillin has been hired to serve as Coordinator of International Scouting, while Rafael Alvarez has joined the staff as an International Scout. Both will operate under the supervision of International Scouting Director Sal Agostinelli. Additionally, Ray Robles has been promoted to Assistant Director, International Operations and Elvis Fernandez has been promoted to Manager, Dominican Academy Operations, while the club has added Orlando Munoz (Manager), Jose Betancourt (Athletic Trainer), Feliberto Sanchez (Assistant Pitching Coach) and Samuel Hiciano (Hitting Coach) to the DSL staff.

In Amateur Scouting, the club has hired four new scouts. Greg Schilz, formerly of the Pirates, has been named National Scouting Coordinator, while Will Brunson (South Texas), Justin Morganstern (Great Lakes) and Justin Munson (Central Plains) have all been added as Area Scouts to Johnny Almaraz’ staff.

In Player Development, the following individuals have earned promotions: Frank Cacciatore (Assistant Hitting Coordinator), Michael Hefta (Clearwater Athletic Trainer), Mickey Kozack (Reading Athletic Trainer), Greg Legg (Reading Manager), John Mizerock (Reading Coach), Dusty Wathan (Lehigh Valley Manager) and Shawn Williams (Clearwater Manager). In addition, the club has added Charlie Hayes (GCL Coach), Tyler Henson (Williamsport Coach), Marty Malloy (Lakewood Manager) and Jose Salas (GCL Strength & Conditioning Coach) to Joe Jordan’s Player Development staff.

• 30 -

[Austinfan]

Looks like they're investing another million or so in scouting and development, 6 scouts/executives, including 2 international plus 4 international coaches. Plus 4 more guys in the personnel department.

Smart, these sorts of investments don't count against the draft or LA caps, but if it helps find/develop one additional player per year, the payoff is huge.

[bkeich]

I assume that Charlie Hayes is the former 3rd baseman??

Could be the next managerial candidate.

[BostonRoss]

A couple of years ago, I thought the Phillies should give Ruf a shot in LF. He is bad out there, but most of the good Phillies teams in my lifetime had defensively deficient left fielders. Given the need to rebuild, I thought it was worth giving him a shot to see if he could hit enough to make it worthwhile.

But I think his time has past now. He'll be 31 in July, and while not given a lot of playing time the past couple of seasons, he has been mediocre at the plate, and downright poor against RHP. The odds of him becoming a good player may never have been that high, but at this point they are pretty bad. I'd find someone with more upside now, preferably with more defensive flexibility.

If Ruf has a role on a MLB team, it's probably on a decent AL team who can use him against LHP as a DH, PH, and sometimes 1B.

Yes, he'll be 31 and pretty much everyone on the Free Agent market is older and will cost more.
(I'll use my inner CD) Look, I don't expect Ruf to become an All-Star, but I have little doubt that he'd give us as much or more than any of the Free Agents that won't cost you 4 years/60 million.
Maybe, given a chance, his value increases enough that we can flip him for a prospect, he's certainly inexpensive enough for any teams budget.

I think it's a false choice that it's either Ruf or a $60M free agent (although you can't really believe that Ruf would give as much as, say, Ian Desmond). The choice is between Ruf and younger players with upside. Given Ruf's lack of value for the last three years, his futility against RHP, and his age, he has no upside for the Phillies.