Looking ahead to the 2017 draft

[teabag259]

Maybe it's just me but I don't view Smith and Hasely as "sexy" enough picks with upside to be worthy at #8. I hope we go with upside there.

[phillychuck]

Would Baz be the upside pick on that board?

[allentown]

He might be. If you want to go pitcher and believe in Howard-like draftitis and the ability of our coaches to clean up delivery, .Faedo might also fit the bill

[Squire]

Faedo has a 2.80 ERA and 113ks in 96 innings. I don't think he had draftitis

[allentown]

Yes, but apart from ERA and HR/9, he was better last year and expected to move to the top of the pile this season. For him to be ranked #10 is a disappointment. He seems like a guy worth gambling on, although his body of work makes it not a big gamble. Admittedly, he'd be more intriguing if he were a lefty, but he does have the size the Phillies look for in a RHSP. He could be in Philly in late 2019.

[Squire]

I'm ok with Beck. Just seems like HS OF is the type of pick we've made most in the top 5 rounds with the absolute worst success. I'm coming around to the notion that the thing to do first and foremost in the first round is not waste your pick completely

[Purduke]

Have been thinking about Phillies draft trends under Almaraz:

1. California players (Moniak, Gowdy, Dyer, Quinn, Williams, Falter, Gilbert, Stephen, Miller, Brown)

1. HS pitchers in NY (Fanti, Young)

1. Hit tool (Randolph, Kingery, Moniak, Stephen)

1. Some Arizona (Kingery, Romero)

1. Lefthanded pitching (Romero, Irvin, Falter, Gilbert)

Definitely see 1 and 3, but I think I might amend the first point to focus on Cal HS with premium picks. Not sure I see CA college picks being that disproportionate, there's always going to be a funnel there, but the Falter and Williams picks made me think that the CA scout seemed to have more juice suddenly, then with picks 11 to 13 (the "gamble rounds") all being CA HS last year, along with Moniak up top, I do believe there is a focus on CA HS that wasn't nearly as strong pre-Almaraz. Likewise, Phils old fascination up in the NW is substantially lessened.

Re: NY HS pitchers. I might stretch that a bit to be some late signability gambles in long shot NE areas. You mention Young and Fanti, but if you add Baldelli and Jacob Stevens I think each of those kids had mid-level college commits and seemed to be leaning that way. Each looked like they were blooming late and could use the college reps, but it seemed the Phils took a little gamble that they could talk them out of the commit without breaking the bank and made serious runs. I thought each was a legit roll of the dice; hit on two, missed on two.

Items 4 and 5 I'm not so sure are trends or disproportionate. Although, being a BIG fan of Holland in Arizona, I wouldn't mind seeing more action coming out of his zone.

Couple other things that have caught my attention the last two years would be: Basketball height on the mound late -- namely Young, Kinzer from Indiana, the 6'9 kid from Duke etc. Can't think of all the names right now but I remember thinking they could have had a pretty good BB team touring South Jersey to play the local Fire and Police departments during last summer (do they still run those "outreach" tours?)

Last observation is Ithink Phils maybe fall in love a little more than the old regime, and overpay more in the middle rounds. Irvin still bugs me -- maybe an extra $50k for Baldelli or $100k for the Davidson kid now at Clemson? Also seemed to stuff Williams' and Falters' pockets pretty readily in 2015, given that each seemed to be an overdraft to begin with.

[flyers19rw]

How does MLB.com get these rankings? I can't see organizations releasing their rankings to the public. So how reliable are these?

[Squire]

As reliable as Todd McShays or Mel Kipers or Chad Fords or etc.

[phillychuck]

Most of these ranking lists are pretty decent near the top of the draft.

[Squire]

UNC eliminated. Kinda makes Bukauskas more attractive to me as a pick

[allentown]

Agreed, I think it's awful that college pitchers get drafted and then over-worked in CWS.

[fish]

Fingers crossed that his last two bad starts could nudge him down to the Phils.

[Squire]

I think I could make an argument to talk myself into almost anyone at 8 at this point. I mean even Faedo feels like he would be close to a guaranteed Major League Starter. Assuming that Wright-McKay-Greene-Lewis-Gore are gone, I'd probably rank them:

1. Bukauskas
2. Baz
3. Beck
4. Smith
5. Haseley
6. Kendall

[andyb]

Fangraphs mock has Smith to the Phillies:

FanGraphs’ 2017 Mock Draft | FanGraphs Baseball

[bigegypt0417]

SO other than Moniak last year when was the last time these guys got our pick right? I'm just asking because I don't really know the answer...

[Squire]

Longenhagen had this to say:

Scouting director Johnny Almaraz and advisor/hitting genius Charlie Manuel were at the ACC Tournament and GM Matt Klentak has seen the UVA kids. I also think there’s a chance they cut a deal here to try to move Trevor Rogers back to their second pick, or they could just take Rogers here.

[Squire]

Not sure anything prior to Randolph is relevant since its a new regime but here's the last 3

2015: Randolph - Almaraz's first year - most experts were saying C Tyler Stephenson fairly consistently for us at #10.

2014 - Nola - Wolever's last year - I think Nola was mocked to us fairly consistently for about a month prior to the draft. We took him at 6

2013 - Crawford - we were associated with Crawford and Dominic Smith alot as I recall.

2012 - we didn't have a first round pick

2011 - we didn't have a first round pick

[fish]

There was some consensus that they would take Nola.

Randolph was a bit of a surprise, though many acknowledged his hit tool was worthy of going where he was picked (his position profile probably pushed him down in some people's opinions- maybe rightfully so looking back).

The Phils were on Crawford from the year before when they were scouting Watson (BA had him picked in one of their 4 mocks).

Once you get off the first couple of picks, I think the best you can hope for in accuracy is to at least have a guy linked to a team because of potential variability.

[Squire]

New BA rankings drop Smith all the way to 15.