Looking ahead to the 2017 draft

[Squire]

I hope its OK with everyone if I continue to talk about the 2017 draft in the 2017 draft thread.

Anyway, as noted above Mayo's latest mock is one of my least favorite play outs I think:

1. Twins - Wright RHP
2. Reds - Greene RHP
3. Padres - Lewis SS/OF
4. Rays - McKay LHP
5. Braves - Gore LHP
6. Athletics - Smith 1B
7. DBacks - Bukauskas RHP
8. PHILLIES - Haseley OF
9. Brewers - Faedo RHP
10. Angels - Adell OF
11. White Sox - Kendall OF
12. Pirates - Rogers LHP
13. Marlins - Hall LHP
14. Royals - Baz RHP
15. Astros - Peterson LHP
16. Yankees - Beck OF

[phillychuck]

Squire, I'm fine with how Mayo's draft played out up until our pick...just take Baz or Beck or even Faedo or go for a discount signing at that point rather than choosing Haseley.

[fish]

Really feels like the media has Faedo over-ranked. Numbers, velocity and size are great- but anyone scouting arm action and delivery can see the problems.

Kiley McDaniel used to have the most reliable insight into the industry's opinions. Eric Longenhagen seems to maybe be close as his successor. He had Peterson, Hiura and Warmouth as sleeper options- while acknowledging that the phils has a large presence watching the Virginia guys.

[bigegypt0417]

It seems mayo's mocks are a little bit different than others.

Haseley seems like a bit of a stretch IMO and plays a position we are deep in.

[teabag259]

Haseley is like a poor mans Benintendi. Not worthy of #8 imo. I'd much rather take Beck or even Adell over Haseley.

[flyers19rw]

David Peterson's name came up as a possible draft target. SEC and ACC players seem more attention to the detriment of Left Coast ones. Peterson's draft status may be suffering from that. There is a lot of good ball being played out there. Peterson's growth during three years at Oregon is impressive. He has improved his mechanics during that time. A 6'6", 235# left hander with 100 IPs this season who had 140 Ks versus 15 BBs deserves some consideration. He has four pitches-FB,slider, change, curve and throws in the mid to low 90's.

[teabag259]

I think I will pass on Bukauskas.

[teabag259]

Latest Perfect Game mock has us taking Smith. They have McKay going #1.

2017 MLB Mock Draft Version 2

[fish]

Looks like Virginia is on espn u at 3 today for a look at Smith and Halesey.

[Squire]

Bukauskas really limping down the stretch. Yet up until his last 2 starts his era was under 2 so I don't know how affected I am by 2 starts. One of the UVA hitters is going to be there at 8 and that seems like the buzz now. Smith seems to get the Bette power grade but Haseley outslugged him this year. Also there is the thought that Haseley might get even better when he gives up pitching. Such a shame there is no college 3B worthy of the pick. Peterson growing on me too.

So I think at this point more and more it seems like the first five picks are in. O particular order: Wright, Greene, McKay, Lewis and Gore. So that puts Oakland on the board at 6 (linked to Bukauskas, Smith, Beck) and then Arizona (linked to Haseley, Bukauskas) and then us at 8.

Then again, there are at least two teams in the top 5 who love the overdraft at a discount strategy and horde your money for later (Atlanta, San Diego).

[allentown]

Latest Perfect Game mock has us taking Smith

I'd rather have any of the 5 guys he has going right after us, although I think Smith is a good pick for a team in need of a 1B. Yes, we can trade Joseph and Hoskins, but that is only a good idea if we assume the Phillies can get fair value at another position back for them. I don't trust that we can. It would be just a talent dump to clear a spot for Smith. We have so many other needs at positions of more value than 1B. I don't think the odds would be in our favor in assuming that Smith develops into a better player than both Joseph and Hoskins. I know Faedo needs some improvements on his delivery, but he has sufficient talent/results that I prefer him to Smith. With the rebuild looking like it can't be finished in just a few more years, I'm more willing to go with the H.S. talents of Adell and Beck, both of which seem far superior to our misguided gambles on Hewitt and LGJ. That's the benefit of picking 8. There are good H.S. talents, but the surer high ceiling guys don't last into the 20s.and 30s.

[Squire]

Phillies scouting director didn't show up at minirleagueball. Sickles gave us Pavin Smith.

Give me names for 45 and 3rd round and 4th round please and I'll see what I can do

[phillychuck]

Squire, I trust you know the depth picks better than I do!

Would you have taken Smith given who was on the board?

[Austinfan]

Another reason I don't want Smith is that Pullin and/or Ortiz are good bets to move to 1B, and maybe even Cozens.

And since Smith would probably start in A ball and be up in 3 years, you have to trade two 1B in a two year period, and that's tough to do.
If he was off the charts, you'd find room, but he sounds like a solid gap hitter, which is good at 1B, but not heads and shoulders above the other options in the organization (Ortiz is 18 and will be at Williamsport, so he'll be 19 in Lakewood next year, putting him on a similar schedule with Smith, and while he's higher risk, he's also higher upside).

The only way you take Smith is he's clearly the BPA by a sizeable margin, if it's close, go pitching or OF (since there are no 3B or big SS prospects available at that point in the draft).

[Squire]

The Phillies scouting director showed up. The Phillies draft so far is

1. Pavin Smith, 1B, UVA
2. Connor Uselton, OF, Stillwater HS, OK
3. Jake Gonzalez, 3B, Chapparal HS, AZ
4. Seth Corry, LHP, Lone Peak HS, UT

I stepped in to make this last pick

[Squire]

Have been thinking about Phillies draft trends under Almaraz:

1. California players (Moniak, Gowdy, Dyer, Quinn, Williams, Falter, Gilbert, Stephen, Miller, Brown)

2. HS pitchers in NY (Fanti, Young)

3. Hit tool (Randolph, Kingery, Moniak, Stephen)

4. Some Arizona (Kingery, Romero)

5. Lefthanded pitching (Romero, Irvin, Falter, Gilbert)

[Squire]

MLB.com updated their player rankings:

1. Greene
2. McKay
3. Wright
4. Gore
5. Lewis
6. Kendall
7. Bukauskas
8. Smith
9. Beck
10. Haseley
11. Faedo
12. Baz
13. Pratto
14. Hall
15. Carlson
16. Burger
17. Canning
18. White
19. Peterson
20. Houck
21. Adell
22. Hiura

Starting to feel like we are going to go college Position player at 8 (Smith or Haseley maybe Kendall) so I would like to go HS at 45. Some guys who I like around there are Chris Seise SS, Tanner Burns RHP, Steven Jennings RHP, Hagen Danner RHP, Quentin Holmes OF, James Marinan, RHP, Alex Scherf RHP

[bkeich]

I don't know much about Pavin Smith, but I am always suspect of spending capital (in this case draft position, which is a form of capital) on a 1B. That position is very limiting and the bar for average offense is very high. I would always rather reserve 1B for an older player that is just on a contract that isnt worth dumping (i.e. a player that was once worth the value, but is now at the end of a contract and doesnt have the fielding ability he once had) or a true stud hitter. A young 1B needs to be about 130 OPS+ or so to be worth the loss of that opportunity.

[Austinfan]

Notice that Beck is rising, to me he's a better bet than Smith.
In today's game, bat speed should be higher valued, b/c of the change in pitching (higher velocity combined with off speed pitches at any point in a count).
And an athletic OF has an edge over a 1B.
Nor do we have much use for a college 1B who'll just clog the position (especially if Randolph, Pullin or Cozens has to move to 1B).

[allentown]

Yes, given that top 7, I'd go Beck. The only way I'd go Smith is if I was absolutely certain that the NL was going to adopt the DH in the next year or so.