Looking ahead to the 2017 draft

[bkeich]

All points are true, but there have been some pitchers that really could hit over the years. Carlos Zambrano, Dontrelle Wilis, Ken Brett [probably the best], Mike Hampton and the one I remember best, Don Robinson of the Pirates who served as their #1/#2 PH for a few years (although his stats as a PH are actually pretty bad).

Robinson put up .700 OPS in 4 of 6 seasons in his prime, his career numbers arent really that impressive, but in his prime he was a threat with the bat, not just as a pitcher but just as much as a hitter.

Steve Carlton, who was just a great athlete, was also a serious threat with the bat for parts of his career. (oddly enough his age 33 and 34 seasons where when he was really dangerous)

Our current Vince Velasquez is no slouch with the bat and has plus speed to make that even better. This year in particular he has only struck out 1 time in 18 PA with a 0.333 BA (small sample size of course).

It will be interesting to see if the player from Japan who is almost certainly coming over soon and has stated he will only do it if he can also hit / play OF will break this silly idea.

[andyb]

MLB Trade Rumors did an extensive scouting report on Otani last week. He is definitely better as a pitcher.

Scouting Shohei Otani

I think he'll get a shot to DH from somebody. Outfield is more doubtful.

[Squire]

The bats have been really good. Our last drafts have generally focused on bats. Our last several international classes have been heavy on bats. I'm ready for some arms I think. Gore, Bukauskas, or Baz. I'm ok with Peterson at 8 with a discount to get another top 40 arm at 45

[andyb]

More from BA on two-way players:

To Pitch, Or Not To Pitch? That Is The Question | BaseballAmerica.com

[Philsmania]

More from BA on two-way players:

To Pitch, Or Not To Pitch? That Is The Question | BaseballAmerica.com

I wonder if at some point Aaron Brown will transition back to pitching. Weren't the Phillies the only team to have him on the board as a position player? Phormer Phillies prospect Kyle Drabek tried switching to third base in the Giants system last year with little success. He's now pitching (and not very well) for Sugar Land in the Atlantic League.

[allentown]

Like Jiwan James, it's too late -- at least too late to benefit the Phillies. It will take him years to become an MLB quality pitcher, assuming he has the requisite skills. The Phillies can't carry him on the 40-man while he develops, so he'll be lost in Rule 5 or as a minor league FA. An MLB organization has to make the pitcher/position decision early in a player's career. Assuming our scouts know what they're doing, the fact they assigned a guy with as poor offensive skills as Aaron Brown to the OF, means his pitching skill was marginal. They know he used to pitch and they watched him flounder as a hitter in recent years. It's safe to assume they don't believe he has the talent to reach the majors as a pitcher.

[Squire]

Minorleagueball.com doing their annual fan mock draft on Saturday 6/3. I am not the Phillies scouting director but will try to update the board as to who the Phillies end up with just to spark discussion.

With regard to the actual Phillies and the 2017 draft my current thoughts are:

1. The only players I am certain are gone by 8 are Wright, Greene and McKay. I still hold out small hope that Gore might slide to us though that is probably less than 10 percent.

2. Highest likelihood for us at 8 are Smith, Bukauskas, Baz and Beck. In that order.

3. Would be really ok with Peterson, Warmouth or Burger at varying degrees of discount.

[phillychuck]

Hoping McKay stupidly drops.

[fish]

Highest likelihood for us at 8 are Smith, Bukauskas, Baz and Beck. In that order.
Would be really ok with Peterson, Warmouth or Burger at varying degrees of discount.

I'm a little leery on Baz, but even he would be a nice add to the system- if they come away with any of those four i'll have a happy start to the draft. Guys that would bum me out a little- Faedo and Halesley (and even they aren't bad- i just think Faedo is going to break down quickly, and I don't know how much power is in Halesely's profile).

I like Peterson- he's got some mechanical stuff that needs to be corrected, but it looks fixable. For my taste there is not enough athleticism in the body for Burger - that profile never works out.

[teabag259]

Mayo's latest mock has the Phils taking Haseley at 8. He has Beck at 16.

[flyers19rw]

I understand that the BPA is the call when drafting. However the organization has hitting prospects. What they don't have so far is a potential top of the rotation starter who is close to getting to Philly. If Bukauskas or Faedo is available at eight, they should be the pick. I believe that Bukauskas will be there. His lack of stature seems to be working against him right now. However he has had a good season; next to McKay and Wright perhaps the best available collegiate pitcher. I will be disappointed if he is passed over for a "toolsy" H.S. option.

[Austinfan]

Is anyone in this draft available at #8 more talented than Sanchez?
Just go BPA, though I'd always take a position player over a pitcher.
At the top of the draft, position players are a safer bet.
Later on, pitchers have more upside, that is, are more likely to exceed their draft position (and more likely to break down).

[allentown]

I don't think we're over-flowing with position prospects. We have a ton of middling position prospects (and a ton of middling pitching prospects, as well). It looks like Franco is in the process of failing. Odubel is struggling. Altherr has looked great, but recent history warns us not to award him RF long term until he has shown he can repeat his performance next season, after the pitchers have adjusted to him. Joseph has picked it up, but started slow enough to sink a contender before the season is truly under way. Who are the great position prospects on the farm, the guys who can be stars? Crawford is said to be our #1 position prospect, but has slipped this year and although he has rebounded of late, his bat has not been good and wasn't good last year either. Hoskins has shown a terrific bat, but plays the same position as Joseph. Kingery is looking very good, but plays the same position as Hernandez. How much can we get in trade for Joseph and Hernandez? Pullin is hitting very well, but is limited to LF and hasn't made it past Reading, where hitting stats must be taken with a grain of salt. Alfaro started very strong with the bat, but has cooled off and he has trouble blocking pitches. I think he can be a solid starting catcher, but he has yet to show star quality. Williams is very streaky and I don't think he has shown yet that he can be an average MLB starter. Quinn's numbers aren't great and he still has difficulty staying on the field. Cozens has the HRs flowing now and is getting more hits, but his BA and OBP for the season aren't at all good. I think Perkins is a respectable 4th/5th OF. There is no 3B in the system. We'll see what happens when the SS leagues start playing, but our power LA guys, Encarnacion and Ortiz, haven't come close to impressing yet. Brito started great with the bat this season, but has seriously faded amidst talk of no plate control. Tocci doing a lot better, but he needs to be a better base runner with his lack of power. Canelo has looked surprisingly good, but probably develops into 2016 Galvis. I think C should not be in A+ ball and will repeat CLW next season. I still have faith in Moniak as our future CF. Stobbe not making Lakewood shows what the Phillies think of him. He may make it, but the Phillies must think he'll have to move slowly. He was supposed to be an advanced, mature H.S. kid and those guys normally start their first full season in Lakewood. Given how bare the farm is of 3B, holding him back is darning. In short, name just about any position on the diamond and we can badly use a draftee with a solid hope to be a star or non-star. At just about any position, our #1 will rise to the top of the future position chart at that position. I agree with AF tahat position players are safer #1s than pitchers. Nola was a finished prospect with an effortless delivery and... I think our coaching did him no favors, but he looks like a lesser guy than he did in his draft year. We haven't signed and developed a #1/2 pitcher since Hamels and it might be argued that we haven't developed a solid #3. I think Nola was that guy, before our coaches messed with his delivery.

[Austinfan]

Pullin has hit better on the road than Reading, so in his case you can throw the "bandbox stadium" effect out the window, The kid can flat out hit.

Nola is an example of overexpectations, he had an elbow problem last year, back problem this year, but his velocity has ticked up a couple MPH.
But ilke most young pitchers he needs to master all three pitches before he'll be effective on a regular basis. However the raw stuff is there to be a #1 pitcher, 94-95 four seamer, 90-93 two seamer and a change and curve both with plus potential.

I think we're just so frustrated becaus the rebuild was delayed that we want to complete it in three years, well, it usually takes five, and this is merely year 3.

[flyers19rw]

One has to believe that out of Altherr, Herrera, Quinn, Cozens, Pullin, Williams, Moniak and Tocci that there is a decent OF somewhere. Alfaro is one of, if not the best, catching prospect in baseball. With Hernandez looking good in the IF and the possibility of Kingery pushing him over to SS or 3B, the MIF will be in good stead. Joseph and Hoskins will take care of 1B. So I stick with my statement that the organization does have an adequate supply of position players that will come up and produce a quality performance.
Some might say that there is no standout star. We'll just have to wait and see. Hoskins could well be that type of player. He's putting up numbers that surpass those of Aaron Judge so he may be a special player. The system just does not have a crying need for a position player in the first round.
Its on the mound where the problem lies. Lots of middle to end of the rotation guys. The starting pitching needs to be upgraded and that's why I believe that Bukauskas or Faedo should be the selection since Wright and McKay will be gone by eight. Both of these guys have #1 starter potential and could be in town by the start of the '19 season or earlier. Its wishful thinking to consider that a team will trade a #1 to the Phillies unless that pitcher is past the apex of their career. Even then the price would be prohibitive. Two years ago the Phillies could have nabbed Allard but chose instead to take Randolph. It was a major mistake and one that shouldn't be replicated.

[Austinfan]

My experience with pitchers over the year is they're too erratic, you have to go with safety in numbers.
And they're harder to project, Fanti in the 5th round could be a 3rd/4th starter, or if he add velocity the next 2-3 years, move up the food chain. Gowdy was also a projection pick.

If you have extra position players, you can get a big haul of young pitchers and build up your pitching depth with 21-22 year olds.
Rollins got us Eflin, Papelbon, Pivetta, if Joseph hits 25-30 HRs this year he should get us a couple good arms.

To me, the best strategy, unless you are getting an elite pitching prospect, is to load up at the A ball level with live arms and develop them.

[allentown]

Hernandez is 2B or LF only. There is no pushing him over to SS or 3B. He doesn't have sufficient arm strength to handle either position. If we want a new SS it is going to be Crawford or Canelo. Unfortunately, we don't have a new 3B possibility in full-season ball.

[phillychuck]

Hernandez is 2B or LF only. There is no pushing him over to SS or 3B. He doesn't have sufficient arm strength to handle either position. If we want a new SS it is going to be Crawford or Canelo. Unfortunately, we don't have a new 3B possibility in full-season ball.

I don't know that I agree with this. Hernandez has 25 MLB games at 3B and 10 or so at SS. He has 56 minor league games at 3B, and has played a few games at SS every year he's been in baseball. Besides, if you have a below average arm for 3B you just play in a bit, at the bag instead of well behind it. If you have quick reactions you can play pretty well at that depth, and there are some advantages getting to bunts and topped balls.

[Squire]

Salisbury article on csnphilly:

1. Says the vibe is a college player will be the pick.

2. Unless Greene or Lewis fall.

3. Really like McKay if he falls.

4. Mentions college hitters: Smith, Haseley, Kendall, Hiura

5. Mentions college pitchers: Faedo, Canning, Peterson

[zambonir]

Galvis is actually the guy who could play 3B, for a little while, through one last bad season. But if they are ready to give up on Franco next season they'll probably find another 3B, even if Machado (who some say would rather be a SS again) is on their radar.

I think they could also hold on to both Kingery and Hernandez until next July, or later. I mean, we're talking about all these future line-up locks at the same time we are worrying about two guys who were the only locks on the big league team a year ago. But if they are lucky enough to hit on multiple redundances, trades are going to be better than position moves (and if any of these guys move to LF that means a lot of other OFs have failed).