Looking ahead to the 2017 draft

[teabag259]

After 3 games 1-1 looks like a much greater possibility than I thought...

[zambonir]

Well, they've opened a nice lead on the Reds, anyway.

[el-pietro]

It's going to be a long year, and there are good players on their way. The first half might be tough but I think we'll be seeing a lot more wins from June to the end of the season.

[Squire]

Hopefully there is a prototypical college hitter who's a sophomore this year.

[allentown]

It's going to be a long year, and there are good players on their way. The first half might be tough but I think we'll be seeing a lot more wins from June to the end of the season.

I agree for this. As of today, those in media who predicted we were better than the Reds seem wrong. We may pass them in 2nd half. I think we draft in top 5, but not 1.1 -- I'm going to predict that we are 1.3, which should still get us a very good player.

[teabag259]

I am absolutely excited by the young talent on the farm. But I don't see how we fix the bullpen at all this year. That alone may ensure 1-1 again. Is Seth Beers a 2017 draft eligible kid?

[allentown]

I am absolutely excited by the young talent on the farm. But I don't see how we fix the bullpen at all this year. That alone may ensure 1-1 again. Is Seth Beers a 2017 draft eligible kid?

We're going to be a bad team, especially in the first half, but we aren't the only bad team. Last year we were in a class of our own, I don't think/hope we'll be a bit better than that his year, mainly in the second half. There are relievers (and starters who likely come up as relievers) in the upper farm. A lot of guys will get their chance in the pen. I don't make a judgment on anyone until the weather warms up. I imagine it must be incredibly tough to come up from FL and play well on a cold spring day/night in Ohio/PA.

[the_fish]

I am absolutely excited by the young talent on the farm. But I don't see how we fix the bullpen at all this year. That alone may ensure 1-1 again. Is Seth Beers a 2017 draft eligible kid?

Sadly, not until 2018.

[Austinfan]

We'll have solid starting pitching, with Morgan and Thompson in the wings, if Morton continues to stink he'll be in the bullpen in a month or two or the waiver wire.

The bullpen will be an extended tryout, but eventually they'll find a group of guys who can be mediocre, and maybe a kid or two will emerge (who predicted Giles before his breakout year, he was Cordero/Tirado).

The hitting will be a problem until players like Williams, Knapp, Hoskins et al start pushing for jobs.

[schooldoc]

Soph RHP Alex Lange out of LSU looks really good facing Vandy tonight. Has given up 2 solo HR (one to likely 2016 first-rounder Bryan Reynolds), but otherwise rolling along.

[Purduke]

I am absolutely excited by the young talent on the farm. But I don't see how we fix the bullpen at all this year. That alone may ensure 1-1 again. Is Seth Beers a 2017 draft eligible kid?

Sadly, not until 2018.

If he has a big enough year this year, might he decide to transfer to JUCO in order to get a jump on the 2017 draft? He's already skipped a HS year, and with a major like Parks and recreation I imagine it wasn't to get to Med school a year earlier. Think there are a couple JUCO programs where he wouldn't get slammed too bad for doing so. No worse than leaving a place like IMG to pitch in a cold, small Northeastern HS your senior year just so you can go to your senior prom with your girlfriend, I would imagine.

[baseballoldie]

I thought the same thing when i saw the intended major. Phil Bickford did the 1 year at Fullerton and then left for JUCO to become eligible for the draft his 2nd year. It worked for Bickford and with the kind of year Beer is having, I would think he is going to strongly consider it.

[Squire]

I searched but couldn't find an existing thread on this. If there is then a moderator can just drop this in there I guess.

[Mod's comment: Done! I didn't [i]expect to find a thread on this topic from so long ago...but the search function found one. -J]

We ended up with the 8th pick in the first round.

Last year the comp picks started at #24 but this year's FA class looks down to me so maybe they start at like 28 or so. Figure we might get something like 30-32 if we QO Hellickson and he declines and signs elsewhere. Figure our second round pick ends up around 48-ish and our third round pick 85-ish.

Some early Top half of the first round names by category:

College Pitchers
Kyle Wright, RHP Vanderbilt
J.B. Bukauskas, RHP, UNC
Alex Faedo, RHP, Florida
Tanner Houck, RHP, Missouri
Brendan McKay, LHP, Louisville
Alex Lange, RHP, LSU

College Position Players
J.J. Schwarz, C, Florida
Jeren Kendall, OF, Vanderbilt
Brendan McKay, 1B, Louisville
KJ Harrison, C, Oregon State
Jake Burger, 3B, Missouri State

HS Pitchers
Jordan Adell, RHP
Hagen Danner, RHP
Hunter Greene, RHP
Alex Scherff, RHP

HS Position Players
Jordan Adell, OF
Hunter Greene, SS
Mark Vientos, SS
Alejandro Toral, 1B
Quentin Holmes, OF

[julio]

Just to provide some framework for Squire's estimates: Before any changes due to free agent signings/comp picks, the Phils have the #8 pick (first round), the #44 pick (second round), then #80, #110, #140, etc. There are six "competitive balance" picks between rounds 1 and 2, and six more between rounds 2 and 3... all assuming that the draft structure next June is unchanged under the new CBA.

[Philsmania]

Some early Top half of the first round names by category:

College Pitchers
Kyle Wright, RHP Vanderbilt
J.B. Bukauskas, RHP, UNC
Alex Faedo, RHP, Florida
Tanner Houck, RHP, Missouri
Brendan McKay, LHP, Louisville
Alex Lange, RHP, LSU

College Position Players
J.J. Schwarz, C, Florida
Jeren Kendall, OF, Vanderbilt
Brendan McKay, 1B, Louisville
KJ Harrison, C, Oregon State
Jake Burger, 3B, Missouri State

HS Pitchers
Jordan Adell, RHP
Hagen Danner, RHP
Hunter Greene, RHP
Alex Scherff, RHP

HS Position Players
Jordan Adell, OF
Hunter Greene, SS
Mark Vientos, SS
Alejandro Toral, 1B
Quentin Holmes, OF

Louisville's McKay is both a pitching and position playing prospect (unless they have two guys with the same name). Which way do the draftniks think he'll go? Aaron Brown was a pre-draft prospect as both and the Phillies seemed to surprise a few people by taking him as an outfielder. Years ago, John Olerud profiled as both a lefty pitcher and a firstbaseman at Washington State and I remember some debate as to which way he should go.

[fish]

Zac Lowther lhp from Xavier is interesting. The idea of drafting a kid from Xavier 8th overall isn't that appealing, but Lowther really came on in the Cape striking out something like 55 guys in 35 innings with a power curve that sometimes looks like Kershaw.

[julio]

Cespedes' re-signing with the Mets means our second-round pick will be no worse than #52. This assumes compensation picks for all seven remaining "qualified" free agents, but no forfeited draft picks above our 2nd round pick. I believe this can only happen if all seven remaining "qualified" FA sign with either the Brewers or the Angels (protected first round, second round after the Phils' pick). Realistically, it will be better than #52.

[julio]

Ian Desmond signed with the Rockies, who will forfeit the #11 pick overall. The Phils' 2nd round pick just improved by one place; worst it can be is now #51.

[julio]

With Kanley Jansen re-signing with the Dodgers, and the Desmond and Fowler signings, the worst our 2nd round pick could be is now #49.

Reports are that Justin Turner is also close to re-signing with LA - that would improve our #2 pick by one more slot.

[Squire]

MLB.com came out with its first 2017 Top 50 Draft Prospect list today:

1. Hunter Greene, RHP, HS
2. Jeren Kendall, OF, Vanderbilt
3. Royce Lewis, SS, HS
4. Alex Faedo, RHP, Florida
5. Kyle Wright, RHP, Vanderbilt
6. J.B. Bukauskas, RHP, UNC
7. Brendan McKay, LHP, Louisville
8. Tanner Houck, RHP, Missouri
9. D.L. Hall, LHP, HS
10. Alex Lange, RHP, LSU
11. Jordan Adell, OF, HS
12. Brady McConnell, SS, HS
13. Tristan Beck, RHP, Stanford
14. Pavin Smith, 1B, UVA
15. Blayne Enlow, RHP, HS

College Pitchers ranked at 4,5,6,7,8.
We pick 8th