Looking ahead to the 2017 draft

[Austinfan]

I think the best bet is to load up on big SS, like Stobbe, and hope you hit paydirt with one of them.

[fish]

BA updated their draft- they say the Phils are scouting college talent hard early, and have them going Faedo. I'm just not a believer in his mechanics and lack of athleticism.

[Squire]

It weird. Faedo was the pre-season 1.1 leader and now taking him would feel unexciting. I'd be OK with it though. At least we'd get a guy who'd be a major leaguer I'm pretty sure.

Anyway. Unless Gore or Bukauskas gets to us, I do think I'm of the mind to cut a deal with Burger for no more than 4 million and then use the excess in the next 2 rounds.

[Squire]

Keith Law updating his mock on Tuesday. He seems to have the best Philly info

[Squire]

Here's my latest mock:

1. Twins - Kyle Wright, RHP
2. Reds - Hunter Greene, RHP
3. Padres - Royce Lewis, SS/OF
4. Rays - Brendan McKay, LHP
5. Braves - MacKenzie Gore, LHP
6. Athletics - J.B. Bukauskas, RHP
7. DBacks - Adam Haseley, OF
8. PHILLIES - Shane Baz, RHP
9. Brewers - Jordan Adell, OF
10. Angels - Alex Faedo, RHP
11. White Sox - Pavin Smith, 1B
12. Pirates - Jeren Kendall, OF
13. Marlins - D.L. Hall. LHP
14. Royals - Jake Burger 3B
15. Astros - Nick Pratto, 1B

[phillychuck]

Squire, do you like Adell at all?

[teabag259]

Not squire...but I don't want him. That kid is far too risky and the epitome of "toolsy outfielder".

[tom81]

Maybe the Braves shake things up and maybe Gore or Bukauskas become available at 8?

Braves reportedly focusing draft on North Carolina high school star

[fish]

Not squire...but I don't want him. That kid is far too risky and the epitome of "toolsy outfielder".

A lot of risk, but more upside than anybody they have except maybe Cozens. We're all gun-shy over toolsy guys based on the Phils past, but one thing we have now that we didn't then is the information from the summer circuit and showcase events. Adell has shown pretty well against the top talent, and his development as a player has by all accounts been remarkable over the last 2 years. We don't have many guys with '7' grade tools - I'd certainly rather have Adell than a 'solid' guy like Haseley- the Phils are reaching the point where they need star power more than depth. Of guys with the potential to be there at 8, I'd rank my preferences as Bukauskas, Smith, and Adell.

[Squire]

Thanks to psuphilliesphan over at BSG for the update on Keith Law's new mock.

Law now says that he believes that the earlier rumors that they were focused on HS pitching at pick 8 is false. Has heard that they are "in" on at least the following - Pavin Smith, 1B, Adam Haseley OF, Austin Beck, OF (there you go bigegypt), Shane Baz, RHP, Griffin Canning, RHP, and even David Peterson LHP. He eventually gives us Austin Beck at 8. Unless Canning or Peterson come at $$ discounts I would not be in favor of taking them at 8. Too much of a projected reach. Of those two, I like Peterson way more than Canning.

[bigegypt0417]

Thanks to psuphilliesphan over at BSG for the update on Keith Law's new mock.

Law now says that he believes that the earlier rumors that they were focused on HS pitching at pick 8 is false. Has heard that they are "in" on at least the following - Pavin Smith, 1B, Adam Haseley OF, Austin Beck, OF (there you go bigegypt), Shane Baz, RHP, Griffin Canning, RHP, and even David Peterson LHP. He eventually gives us Austin Beck at 8. Unless Canning or Peterson come at $$ discounts I would not be in favor of taking them at 8. Too much of a projected reach. Of those two, I like Peterson way more than Canning.

I tend to fall in love with one guy every year. The year we took Crawford I really was hoping we could get Dominic Smith. Austin Beck is this years Dominic Smith.

[teabag259]

Interesting that he didn't mention Adell.

[Austinfan]

Austin Beck

From what I've read, I'd take Beck over Adell, Adell is probably the better athlete, though Beck should regain some speed next year two years removed from ACL surgery.
But Beck sounds like a pure hitter, whereas Adell is an Altherr like gamble, tools that have to be refined, it worked with Altherr but not with Golson or Hewitt, which is why you take these guys later in the draft.

[bigegypt0417]

Austin Beck

From what I've read, I'd take Beck over Adell, Adell is probably the better athlete, though Beck should regain some speed next year two years removed from ACL surgery.
But Beck sounds like a pure hitter, whereas Adell is an Altherr like gamble, tools that have to be refined, it worked with Altherr but not with Golson or Hewitt, which is why you take these guys later in the draft.

Agreed. Beck actually has a hit tool and also some impressive future power grades.

[allentown]

What we have in Altherr and what we almost had in Domonic Brown, show that while the tools which attracted us to Golson (Hewitt really a different story -- he was an old H.S. kid, and lacked any defensive ability) are valuable and a great crap shoot to take, but these guys are available after the 1st and 2nd round and it is better to save the raw toolsy bets for later rounds and take multiple shots. The first and second round are for surer, more well-rounded, more developed skills -- No LGJ wish and a prayer, please, but do continue to bet on the power of a Howard, or the current bash brothers, where they are also available. I still think the hit tool is the most important for a batter, but in the first third of the first round, you don't need to bet on a H.S. kid with limited, very raw tools. We've done too much single-tool over-drafting. I'm a little suspicion of guys who rise in the draft right before draft time. That's how we got Taylor.

[Austinfan]

I like "sure things" in the top 100, but I hate college players with limited ceilings in the top ten rounds, I thought Liebrandt and Martin were bad picks, for example.
Out of the top 100 you have to gamble, whether on raw tools or projection (Gowdy, Fanti) or one or two exceptional skills (power, velocity, speed).
But you shouldn't draft anyone in the top 10 rounds you can't project into a starting role.

You have the rest of the draft to take up college players who can be role players (i.e. starters with two pitches who project to the bullpen) or organizational fodder.

[Austinfan]

I think the other thing we've learned, see A Brown, is when you have a hitter/pitcher, decide which one and analyze him only for that role, don't gush over the fact he can hit as well as pitch.
Adell is a good example, supposedly he throws 95-97, well, is he a top pitching prospect? If not, any velocity over that required to be a credible RF has little value (i.e. how many times a year will that incremental velocity have an impact?).

[bkeich]

I think the other thing we've learned, see A Brown, is when you have a hitter/pitcher, decide which one and analyze him only for that role, don't gush over the fact he can hit as well as pitch.
Adell is a good example, supposedly he throws 95-97, well, is he a top pitching prospect? If not, any velocity over that required to be a credible RF has little value (i.e. how many times a year will that incremental velocity have an impact?).

You are correct, but I still dont really understand why. The guy in Japan hopefully changes this mindset when he comes to the US.

There is no logical reason why a hitter that can pitch can't do both, especially if they are an OF or 1B. The need to practice fielding at those positions is pretty low and low impact, it would take a special player to put in the time to be both a pitcher and a hitter, but it isnt impossible it is just something conventional baseball coaches / management doesnt allow for. We have had guys play baseball and football, surely they can do more than 1 thing in baseball.

[andyb]

While there is nothing that prevents the 2-way player, it would upset many of the throwing regimes that starting pitchers now operate under. For a starter, the throwing between starts is very specific and playing defense (and the warmup needed to make a full strength throw from the outfield) would upset a starter's routine.

For this reason most people think it is only possible with a relief pitcher or if a starter could be used as a DH.

[Austinfan]

The paucity of good hitting pitchers suggests there's self-selection, any pitcher who's a really talented hitter tends to become a position player (because there's more value and less risk). So if you're left with average hitting prospects, do you retard their development as a pitcher to turn them into two way players?

Rick Wise might have made it as a hitter, maybe Baumgartner, but not too many others.
And you can't assume what a pitcher hits as a pitcher can be directly extrapolated to hitting full-time, I suspect pitchers have a natural tendency to relax when throwing to a pitcher, and would bear down more if that pitcher was a full-time hitter.