Looking ahead to the 2017 draft

[andyb]

Hasely seems to be rising in lots of these mock drafts and the Phillies did seem to pay lots of attention at the ACC tournament. It is possible they like him as much as Smith.

Not sure what to make of the Trevor Rogers note there. Might not be the worst thing if he would sign significantly under slot, though the player we get in the 2nd round would need to be good enough to make it worth it.

[Squire]

One week away. For what its worth, in the Longehagen mock where he mentions the Phillies trying to float Rogers down, he has the Yankees taking Rogers at #16. I just don't see how the Phillies who only have the #8 pick to work with and a 37 pick game between 1st and 2nd rounds will be able to push a guy down. Not enough picks or muscle ($).

[andyb]

I was thinking the Phillies were going to sound out Rogers to see if he might sign for something like $3 million. That would be a strategy if they don't think the choices at 8 are worth the #8 slot ($4.78 million or realistically most of these players would likely sign for $4 million).

Hard throwing left-handed starting pitching is legitimately something we have none of in the system. Lots of risk in Rogers to me though even if the tools are kind of a poor man's AJ Puk. Could see him taking a while to develop. Not worried that he is already 19 if the raw stuff is there.

[Squire]

Yup. That strategy is way more likely to work than trying to push Rogers down to 45.

[Squire]

Just curious as to people's opinion on this....does the success or lack of success in connection with recently drafted UVA hitters affect the decision one way or the other. Looking at Derek Fisher, Mike Papi, Matt Thaiss, Joe McCarthy

[Purduke]

I'm glad to read this about Rogers; it was a thought I had when it first surfaced re: a major undersign with the Padres. But then it seemed as if Rogers stock seemed to start slipping into the 20\30's.

Couple reasons that I would like it if we can bank some money for later upside picks. First, I believe that NM is part of Brad Holland's territory (AZ, NM, CO and UT, I believe) and I have voiced my faith in Holland's eye several times in the past. If the Phils are looking to overdraft a toolsy kid at 1.8 he had the credibility with me to do something like that. But I would also be OK with Baz, but I really want some top rotation type projection at that pick.

Second, I can't get comfortable with the fit and\or upside of the college kids we seem to be most aligned with. To me Bakauskas is a right handed Brandon Finnegan, who I liked at TCU a lot for his polish, but mostly as a 2nd round type prospect. I just have a strong bias against 6'0 kids being projected as starters, and that gets doubled with an early first round slot.

[Purduke]

Zac Lowther lhp from Xavier is interesting. The idea of drafting a kid from Xavier 8th overall isn't that appealing, but Lowther really came on in the Cape striking out something like 55 guys in 35 innings with a power curve that sometimes looks like Kershaw.

Pulling this out from the beginning of this thread but was wondering what your current thinking on Lowther is. Realize he had an inconsistent year but some of his power numbers were up. See he moved back into the bottom of the BA100 a week ago, so I wonder if there might be some interest in the 3rd\4th round. His best game this year was at Villanova; shut down stats that night. Wonder if any of the Phil's desk jockeys might have pulled an Andy Reid and went out to watch him that night.

[flyers19rw]

Right now, the adjective of "toolsy" when describing a potential draftee put me off. If it's a collegiate player, I'm interested in production not tools. If it a H. S. Player, forget about it. Jackson, Hewitt, etc. not interested. At eight in the draft, the player selected should be someone that can easily be projected to be an impact player not a project.

[schooldoc]

UVA's season is now over, at the hands of Dallas Baptist, whose cupboard obviously wasn't left bare with the departure of Darick Hall and David Martinelli after last year.

Smith's last at-bat at UVA; a 3-run HR. He had 5 RBI in the 11-8 defeat.

[fish]

UVA's season is now over, at the hands of Dallas Baptist, whose cupboard obviously wasn't left bare with the departure of Darick Hall and David Martinelli after last year.

Smith's last at-bat at UVA; a 3-run HR. He had 5 RBI in the 11-8 defeat.

Smith looks as good as advertised. Halesey on the other hand- his stats are great, my gosh his swing is awful. I know they call it an inside out swing- but it looks like it needs an overhaul, not just a tweak. I don't know how he can be ranked so high.

[Purduke]

It is true that "toolsy" has a bad rep these days on this site, but it is not per se a bad word. Execution is everything. If we were the Astros or Rangers or a half dozen other teams ... Hit on a Springer or Tucker, or even a Brett Phillips with the trade value he had a year ago and we'd think differently. Besides, a "toolsy" LHP is a little different than an OF, and it does look like the Phils have managed to improve minor league pitching prospect performance the last couple years, so it is not completely the same scene as with the prior admin trying to teach the hitting tool.

[Austinfan]

"Toolsy" has value in that the player can handle premium positions and thus has more value. You need speed at CF and SS/2B, arm strength for RF, 3B and SS.
But the key tool for a position player is hitting, and that is first of all bat speed, and then "vision" (see the spin on the ball, follow the ball to the bat).
So I'd eliminate all position players with serious hitting flaws and not assume I can fix them.

Where tools should come in is ranking players with the minimum hit tool, the more tools the better if the player can hit.

[allentown]

I agree that we need to distinguish 1) raw tools vs not-yet-fully-developed-tools-for-a-H.S.-kid level tools and 2) the misuse of 'tools' by the Phillies scouting department. AF said much of what I would say about the importance of particular tools. I would add that some of the Phillies worst 'toolsy' picks didn't actually have much by way of tools. Hewitt basically was fast, but wasn't a good defender at any position. He was almost a full year older than the average H.S. draftee. He played in the NE. LGJ excelled at 'raw power', i.e. batting practice power. He did not excel at in-game power and he lacked the hit tool necessary to turn raw power into real power. He also was not a physical fitness afficianado and arrived in CLW looking like a blimp. His ONLY 'tool' was 'raw power'. He did not even have athleticism. Phillies scouts, and I guess TPTB, really wanted to add power to the system and made a huge reach with LGJ. When Atlanta is not in the hunt for a GA H.S. hitter, that should be a flashing red warning sign. Taylor goeo

[fish]

A lot of really interesting guys potentially available in the second round if BA's rankings are close to accurate. My favorites are:

Luke Heimlich- Oregon State lefty. I only saw him during the tournament, but he was painting 90-93 with good deception and average to better change and curve. Unless he was running on adrenaline that was bumping up his stuff, that's a pretty good get in the second round.

Ryan Villade- Oklahoma high school 3B, son of a former minor league coach and current college coach, he has a good arm and power projection, looks polished with wood and at least his batting practice swings look like he has the kind of tall, easy, balanced power stroke like Bryant. He might be my favorite.

Garret Mitchell - California high school OF. Speed, bat speed, power, good makeup- he's got a build like high school Mike Trout. I gather there are questions about his hit tool, but that's a pretty good set of skills for the second round.

Brent Rooker - Mississippi State OF/1B. He's 22, but he sure looks like a man at the plate. If he's 23 starting at Reading next year that's ok right?

Jeter Downs- Florida high school SS. He looks like he has polish and the same balance with power in his swing like Villade, just in a smaller package that plays well at short.

In the 3rd round I like:

David Banuelos Long Beach State Catcher- defensively, the way he moves and throws (60% cs) he just wows when you watch him. His hitting may not be spectacular, but I think he'd be a strong add to the system.

Zac Lowther Xavier lhp - not great velocity (88-93) or command, but I like the delivery and nasty curve.

[bigegypt0417]

We're talking about players judged to have potential future tools vs. those who are already showing those tools. It also matters where you are drafting. Drafting Hewitt was essentially seeing something that may develop but the odds are low. Looking at a player in this draft like Beck, he has already started to show those tools.

Being toolsy and having a toolshed in my opinion are different things.

[Austinfan]

Pickett was a good power pick b/c he was an 8th rd HS player.
So it's a long shot, but he has the plus plus tool you could gamble on.
I though Martin was overdrafted due to his age, whereas Hall was a great pick in the 14th round.

Once you get past the first three rounds, you can start to gamble, past the first five rounds, roll the dice.
But the first hundred players or so is where you need a high batting average. Can't miss on all these guys on a regular basis.

[Philsmania]

I agree that we need to distinguish 1) raw tools vs not-yet-fully-developed-tools-for-a-H.S.-kid level tools and 2) the misuse of 'tools' by the Phillies scouting department. AF said much of what I would say about the importance of particular tools. I would add that some of the Phillies worst 'toolsy' picks didn't actually have much by way of tools. Hewitt basically was fast, but wasn't a good defender at any position. He was almost a full year older than the average H.S. draftee. He played in the NE. LGJ excelled at 'raw power', i.e. batting practice power. He did not excel at in-game power and he lacked the hit tool necessary to turn raw power into real power. He also was not a physical fitness afficianado and arrived in CLW looking like a blimp. His ONLY 'tool' was 'raw power'. He did not even have athleticism. Phillies scouts, and I guess TPTB, really wanted to add power to the system and made a huge reach with LGJ. When Atlanta is not in the hunt for a GA H.S. hitter, that should be a flashing red warning sign. Taylor goeo

Notwithstanding LGJ, "tools" came to mean "athletes" during the Wolever era. Hewitt, Collier, Golson and, D.Brown who actually looked for a while like he would be a hit. They put stock into the ability to catch a lot of touchdown passes and/or slam-dunk a basketball, but little into actual baseball skills.

[andyb]

Though it is very possible that a pick like Cornelius Randolph is just as much a failure as someone like Golson. Randolph does not have the defensive or baserunning tools that let him add value outside the bat. And he may not have enough power to be a really good LF.

Tools go both ways. Value is not simply OPS or how many walks one draws. LGJ and Hewitt were mistakes. They were not especially high picks though. The sentiment of going for some tools at those picks is still good. They just mis-judged those tools with those picks.

[flyers19rw]

So I'd eliminate all position players with serious hitting flaws and not assume I can fix them.

This is where I am with "toolsy" guys. The Phillies have fallen into a rut with looking for athletes that they assume that they can turn into baseball players. The keep drafting H.S. kids (eight out of their last ten first round selections) while thinking that they can provide a magic wand with which to hit a kid and have a player. Jackson, Hewitt, Golson, LGJ were all players that fell into this category. When an organization is picking in the top the of the first round, the selection that they make had better have at least one tool that translates to being able to be used at the major league level. Teams that bomb out with selections in this range become the Phillies of 2017.
As for Randolph, I'm not as down on him as others are. He's young for his level and, from what I've seen on his twitter posts, perhaps young in other ways as well. At least he showed an ability to put the bat on the ball before they selected him. Right now, how often and how hard he can do that is open to speculation. Recently he has shown some nice improvement.

[Squire]

Assuming that the first five come off the board the way everyone expects (Wright- Greene-Lewis-McKay-Gore) here's my current rest of the board:

1. J.B Bukauskas, RHP
2. Pavin Smith, 1B
3. Austin Beck, OF
4. Alex Faedo, RHP
5. Adam Haseley, OF
6. Trevor Rogers, LHP
7. Shane Baz, RHP
8. David Peterson, LHP