Looking ahead to the 2017 draft

[allentown]

Picking in the top 5 next summer isn't the worst that can happen, along with a bigger LA allocation

Under the new CBA, where the Phillies finish this season will have zilch impact on their LA allocation -- it is all based upon market size and we are in the bottom grouping. That's why not buying more allocation this season, when we had the highest allocation and could spend the most without penalty was such a lost opportunity. It is a chance which will never come again to us, unless the next CBA changes the rules. Similarly, not choosing to be players in the over-23 international market is a missed opportunity, which also will never come again, because the new CBA ups the age limit for players to fall outside the allocation.

[teabag259]

Getting Seth Beer would be worth 60 win season.

[Austinfan]

Meh, that ship had sailed.
Roberts was a gross overpay, I didn't see anything about him that said "Cuban star."
No point whining about spilled milk.

.

[allentown]

Yes, the Phillies TPTB have allowed a lot of ships to sail without them. It's spilt milk, but it's also how the Phillies operate and a big part of why we are where we are. Yes, LA players cost more than they once did, but we are rolling in money and don't need to spend with your concept of maximum efficiency to use our money to improve the system.

[kmc1019]

This team was not going to be a playoff team this year regardless, I'd rather draft in the top 5 than 10 to 15 range - though May has been awful to watch.

For this June's draft, I would not let Bukauskas or Pavin Smith get by us if either were there.

[bigegypt0417]

Problem is if Smith can't play LF, what's the point of drafting a college kid who is 2-3 years away with two players ahead of him who might be more talented (given that Hoskins is tearing up AAA and Joseph has .800+ OPS in the Show).
And Cozens and Ortiz may move to 1B down the road.

Then you trade people for other needs?

[Austinfan]

But how much trade value do 1B have?
The other issue I have with 1B is career longevity, look at the FA flops, dominated by 1B.
I think because they're overall less athletic, and therefore generally decline faster.

Whereas if a guy like Cozens can play OF in his 20s, if you move him to 1B in his 30s he may decline slower b/c he was a better athlete.
It's one of the things I'd want my staff to study going into the draft.

The other factor is simply value to the team, one reason Phillies probably sign so many LA SSs is you're looking at good athletes with eye/hand coordination and arm strength - it's a gamble built around athleticism, if they have a growth spurt they have potential at almost every position on the field.
For me to take Smith, I'd have to be convinced he's an exceptional, not just good hitter, someone I can realistically project to .900 OPS, unless he's also an exceptional fielding 1B.

[bigegypt0417]

But how much trade value do 1B have?
The other issue I have with 1B is career longevity, look at the FA flops, dominated by 1B.
I think because they're overall less athletic, and therefore generally decline faster.

1B have value based on how good they are...I have no idea what you mean with that question...

[Austinfan]

Because 1B are "inflexible," they have less instrinc value as trade chips, i.e., they have to be very good hitters to have significant trade value.
That is, given two hitters, the one that can also a credible corner OF or 3B has more value than a 1B only player.

[andyb]

The free agent 1B flops generally involve first basemen in their 30s. Not sure what they have to do with draft value. Obviously a 1B you draft needs to be a superior hitter because there is less defensive value in the position, but I also don't think there is any reason to shy away from a good hitter just because they are a first baseman.

I do think we will trade Joseph or Hoskins by next offseason to clear the immediate logjam. In general I want the best player available with high ceiling tools out of this pick and that probably means pitching to me.

[allentown]

And generally not 'they were in their 30s' as 30 or even 32. First basemen have value precisely because it is the bottom of the defensive spectrum and thus requires a big bat. The easiest and cheapest way to upgrade an offense if you have a poor offensive 1B is to upgrade to a plus offensive 1B. You might find an equally good bat from a SS or 2B or CF, but they are going to cost a lot more if they are good defenders at their position. Both Joseph and Hoskins have extra trade value because they are cheap with remaining to 6 years of team control. If they keep hitting like they are, one will be traded and with a good return -- better return than sign and flips like Saunders and Kendrick. That is just one benefit of always feeding the farm.

[bigegypt0417]

And generally not 'they were in their 30s' as 30 or even 32. First basemen have value precisely because it is the bottom of the defensive spectrum and thus requires a big bat. The easiest and cheapest way to upgrade an offense if you have a poor offensive 1B is to upgrade to a plus offensive 1B. You might find an equally good bat from a SS or 2B or CF, but they are going to cost a lot more if they are good defenders at their position. Both Joseph and Hoskins have extra trade value because they are cheap with remaining to 6 years of team control. If they keep hitting like they are, one will be traded and with a good return -- better return than sign and flips like Saunders and Kendrick. That is just one benefit of always feeding the farm.

Agree 100%!

[Squire]

Exactly 3 weeks out. I forgot that they are going with the odd Monday Night (Rounds 1 and 2) -Tuesday Day (Rounds 3-10) -Wednesday Day (Rounds 11-40) draft schedule

One of the things that always concerns me regarding the Phillies is whether they are prepared with guys with guys who are right now projected to go before their pick. If Royce Lewis or MacKenzie Gore or Kyle Wright or J.B. Bukauskas start to fall to us are we prepared to take them (i.e. have scouted and know their price range) or do we just focus on a handful of guys in our general pick area and thus are forced to pick among them.

[Austinfan]

Problem is that's not really true any more.

Quick check RC+ > 120 (130) (arbitrary, but any measure should provide similar results)
2016: 2015: 2014
1B: 11 (9) - 12 (10) - 13 (6)
2B: 10 (5) - 4 (0) - 3 (3)
SS: 3 (1) - 0 (0) - 2 (1)
3B: 10 (5) - 6 (4) - 6 (4)
LF: 7 (4) - 4 (3) - 10 (7)
CF: 4 (3) - 4 (3) - 7 (6)
RF: 7 (3) - 7 (6) - 8 (6)
1B, as would be expected, is the premier hitting position
RF hits as well or better than LF, which is a surprise b/c you'd think weak armed OFs would be more common
3B is a power position, but 2B emerged last year, that may be a one year fluke
SS and C are the good field, no hit positions

Franco is 2015 is the only Phillies regular to post a RC+ > 120 the last three years
Utley, D Brown and Ruf in 2013
Ruiz in 2012
Victorino and Howard (Pence and Mayberry part-time) in 2011
Utley, Werth, Howard and Ruiz in 2010
Utley, Werth, Howard and Ibanez in 2009
Utley, Werth, Howard and Burrell in 2008
Utley, Werth, Howard, Rowand and Burrell in 2007
Utley, Howard, Burrell, Abreu (Delucci and Coste part-time) in 2006

[andyb]

I am not sure what isn't true in your estimation. From your own data it looks like 1B is consistently the position with the most offense. The other positions have more variability. That is all to be expected. It also has little to do with the wisdom of drafting a 1B with a high pick. Offense at a more important defensive position is more valuable, but also harder to get.

Bottom line is we should draft the best player available. We are low enough where there is not much below slot signing benefit so we should seek the best player that will sign for slot or close to that.

[allentown]

This doesn't seem to dispute or even address our comments.

[Austinfan]

At 1B, being a good hitter doesn't have that much value unless you're a plus fielder (and only a couple are), so you have to have much higher standards for a 1B, because he's not going to be able to help you at multiple positions, and he's not going to provide much benefit unless he's a great hitter.

And that's why it's hard to get much value in a trade, because a .800 OPS on a minus fielding 1B (Joseph right now) isn't that hard to find, and no one is going to bet that Smith or Hoskins will be a .900 OPS ML player. Because that's a really high standard even for a top college or AAA ball hitter.

It's different with someone like Crawford, even with his struggles, you just have to project him to .750 OPS or so to have significant value.

[tom81]

and no one is going to bet that Smith or Hoskins will be a .900 OPS ML player

I'd bet that someone would bet that Hoskins will be a .900 OPS ML player, he hit that high since 2015 and a higher OPS at each level.

[bigegypt0417]

At 1B, being a good hitter doesn't have that much value unless you're a plus fielder (and only a couple are), so you have to have much higher standards for a 1B, because he's not going to be able to help you at multiple positions, and he's not going to provide much benefit unless he's a great hitter.

Being a good hitter doesn't have much value?

It seems like you want to keep moving the goalposts on this conversation.

[andyb]

While being a plus fielder is nice at first base, it would not be the category I would look at to determine whether drafting 1B is a good idea with a high pick. First base defense is just not that valuable. The extra 50 points in OPS is valuable, especially if they have a strong OBP.

Would Joseph bring as much in a trade as a Cesar Hernandez? Probably not. But that does not mean he doesn't have significant trade value. He is probably more valuable than Matt Adams because he has more years of control and has been playing better (and been healthier) in recent years. Adams was just traded for a 19-year-old in low A that was a million plus international signing 2 years ago. Would Joseph bring a top 100 prospect back? Probably not at this point but if he continues to hit by the trade deadline (and assuming Hoskins also continues to hit), he might actually bring something close to a top 100 prospect at that point.

BTW Crawford could be a 3+ WAR player with a 675 OPS, but that is a different story since OPS is about the worst stat to use to evaluate his game which is predicated on OBP and defense.