Looking ahead to the 2017 draft

[Squire]

1. I'd prefer Bukauskas over Smith.
2. I'm not exactly sure why Smith is favored over Haseley since Haseley has better numbers (other than BB/K) than Smith and plays OF. Though Smith has a longer track record.
3. I would have Zero problem taking Smith. First of all, Smith bats lefthanded (and Joseph/hoskins are not) which is beneficial when 75% of ML ABs are still against RHPs. Plus, he seems like the kind of guy with a really high floor and I do think that the draft is about maximizing value. I love Hoskins but if Smith is the best player on the board then you don't not take Smith because of Hoskins. Also, maybe Smith can play LF.

[teabag259]

I look at Pavin Smith as a clone of Mets prospect Dominic Smith. Great bat control. Hits for average. average power. My only issue there is taking a first baseman only so early when the Phils have multiple young first basemen who they think can play.

[Squire]

MLB.com has Smith with a 55 grade on power. I am struggling to find any hitter in this class with a higher power grade than that. Kyle Lewis had a 60 last year.

[bigegypt0417]

Is beck close?

I saw him somewhere with a future 70 for power...

Yep, I still want him.

[Squire]

Beck has the same power grade 55 per mlb.com. Not saying that's right. I'm definitely Ok with Beck though I think he is the riskiest play of our reasonable choices at 8 and also literally nobody has connected us with him at all.

[bigegypt0417]

Mayo did on MLB.com in early may but that's the only one so far.

[Austinfan]

So we'd draft a 1B with #8 so we can trade Joseph for someone at the back end of the top 100?
Or we can just draft a player better than the one we'd trade for.

"Defensively, Smith is an asset at first base, with plus mobility, field awareness, soft hands, and (as befits a former pitcher) a strong throwing arm. He lacks running speed and is not a threat to steal, although he’s a good enough athlete that some scouts think he can play left or right field."

That to me is the key, he's 21, probably 2 years away from the majors, but it doesn't make sense for the Phillies unless their scouts think he can handle a corner OF position.
If so, he becomes an upgrade over Stassi, and insurance at 1B as well as with Randolph and the AA and AAA OFs.

He's going to be a good hitter, but I don't think he has the same upside as Hoskins as a hitter, although he may end up a better fielder.

If he's clearly the BPA, you have to take him, but if it's close, I'd go another direction.

[bigegypt0417]

If so, he becomes an upgrade over Stassi, and insurance at 1B as well as with Randolph and the AA and AAA OFs.

Stassi?

I'm almost positive that isn't even a thought. You are drafting him as your 1B of the future at #8.

[andyb]

If they draft a first baseman at #8 we can be pretty sure they think he has more upside than their existing first basemen.

Also, rarely does a team draft position in baseball. You accumulate assets (i.e. best player available) and then several years down the road when many things change you figure out how they fit into your roster. We have no sure things at first base. Or any position really. Which is the problem with a system that has lots of depth but little star quality. Any player that is an average starter can easily be traded if you have something better.

[Squire]

WARD: Mock Draft 3.0

This guy at scout mocked Pavin Smith to us (Greene-McKay-Lewis-Wright-Gore-Bukauskas-Haseley 1-7). Once again the comments noted the Phillies debating the surity of a college player v. a HS arm. Don't know how much of this is just repeating what other people are saying at this point.

[Austinfan]

I don't think Klentak wants a HS arm, for good reason.
For one thing, if I were to list a strength of our farm system, it's finding and developing LA pitchers.
What are the odds of drafting a HS pitcher better than Kilome, Sanchez or Medina?
On the other hand, we haven't done well with LA position players other than middle infield.

So I'd think a college pitcher or a position player is more likely than a HS arm, especially since the "can't miss" (though no HS pitcher qualifies) pitchers will be off the board.

[fish]

Klentak's hires and his non-moves are about the only things he's provided to make any kind of judgement about what he wants. It's not much to go on.

[andyb]

Klentak drafted HS arms last year and does not seem to shy away from that. Just because he shied away from using the #1 pick on a HS arm is very different than saying he does not like HS arms in general. We invested a whole lot of money in Gowdy last year to disprove that notion. There is probably more evidence that Klentak shys away from COLLEGE arms with high picks than HS arms. We waited till rounds 4 and 5 last year and Romero was really a JC arm anyway. Most of our larger investments went towards HS arms or position players.

[Austinfan]

Klentak thinks all pitchers are bigger gambles than position players, which I agree is true.
It doesn't mean he won't draft them, but it's a huge difference using a 2nd rd pick and some extra signing money than using a high 1st rd pick.
I'd always go for the top position player in the first round unless the pitcher is a tier above.

If you hit on a position player, a team like the Phillies have the money to extend that player well into FA, so you're looking at a pretty certain 6-10 years of return.
With a pitcher, no matter how good, it's year to year (look at the Mets).
So build a core of position players and trade the surplus for young arms and veterans with 2-3 years left on their deals.

[andyb]

We paid Gowdy a $3.5 million bonus last year. That is a little more than a 2nd round pick and extra bonus money. It is the equivalent of a pick in the middle of the first round.

Of course pitchers are riskier than position players because of injury. There is just no evidence that Klentak shies away from pitching more than any other GM. He seems to have an open mind and is looking for a combination of high ceiling (TOOLS!!!!!) and value.

[Squire]

Hard to tell because we've only had 2 draft classes under Almaraz and one under Klentak. The HS pitchers drafted and signed in 2015 and 2016 were:

2016: Gowdy (2nd) (3.5M), Miller (12)(100K), Brown (13)(100k), Young (22)(225K).
2015: Falter (5th) (420k), Stewart (22)(100k), Fanti (31)(100k)

[zambonir]

Supposedly MacPhail's "mantra" is "Grow the pitching, buy the bats."

Phillies president Andy MacPhail talks pitching injuries, how they will impact...

[Austinfan]

You grow pitching through "safety in numbers."
Once you get past the 2nt round, position players decline sharply in the probability that they'll ever be starters.
So it makes sense to focus on pitching the rest of the top 10 picks, with a smattering of upside HS position players and fill out your minor league rosters with college hitters.
Once you get past the tenth round, I think the best bets are college starting pitchers who might uptick in the bullpen, or who only have two pitches.

The kind of picks I don't like are guys like Martin, who I thought was a mistake at the time.
If you're going college in the top ten rounds, go "young," guys with upside left. Especially at a position like 1B.
Martin turned 23 November of his draft year, Hoskins turned 21 March of his draft year - 16 month difference.
Darrick Hall turned 20 July of his draft year and they got him in the 14th round.

[andyb]

3 or 4 HS pitchers each draft class is about right because it is hard to get them playing time and you don't want too much risk.

Almaraz in 2015 had a less toolsy draft than in 2016 though we were still going for a good mix of HS signings.

The record clearly favors HS in top rounds with our top 3 choices in each year adding up to 5 HS and 1 College (Kingery). Only 1 pitcher there but it was the second highest bonus and one can easily see the benefit in avoiding a HS pitcher for the 1-1 pitch which is a special case.

From these tendencies I think the only thing we can say for sure is that the Phillies would prefer a HS player if all things were equal but are open to college players if they think that player is the best. I don't think there is enough evidence to say they are anti HS pitcher. It just was not a fit for the 1-1 pick and then we did spend $3.5 million on HS pitching right after that.

[Squire]

My current draft board

1. Hunter Greene, RHP
2. Brendan McKay, LHP
3. Kyle Wright, RHP
4. MacKenzie Gore, LHP
5. J.B Bukauskas, RHP
6. Pavin Smith, 1B
7. Shane Baz, RHP
8. Austin Beck, OF
9. Royce Lewis, SS/OF
10. Adam Haseley, OF