Looking ahead to the 2017 draft

[bigegypt0417]

2017 Phillies Draft Preview: Austin Beck, OF

I'll continue to hope he's there and we pick him

[Squire]

Feels like there is somewhat of a consensus of a Top 5 growing:

Hunter Greene, RHP
Brendan McKay, LHP/1B
Royce Lewis, SS/OF
MacKenzie Gore, LHP
Kyle Wright, RHP

[Squire]

My current projection:

1. Twins - Kyle Wright, RHP
2. Reds - Brendan McKay, 1B
3. Padres - Hunter Greene, RHP
4. Rays - Royce Lewis, SS/OF
5. Braves - MacKenzie Gore, LHP
6. Athletics - Austin Beck, OF
7. DBacks - J.B. Bukauskas, RHP
8. PHILLIES - Shane Baz, RHP
9. Brewers - D.L. Hall, LHP
10. Angels - Jordan Adell, OF
11. White Sox - Jeren Kendall, OF
12. Pirates - Pavin Smith, 1B
13. Marlins - Trevor Rogers, LHP
14. Royals - Jake Burger, 3B
15. Astros - Alex Faedo, RHP

[Squire]

Sickels had them taking Bukauskas in his mock this morning.

Updated BA mock/projection coming later today.

[Squire]

BA Mock a little funky:

1. Twins - Kyle Wright, RHP
2. Reds - Brendan McKay, LHP
3. Padres - Hunter Greene, RHP (though also whispers of underslot discussion on Trevor Rogers)
4. Rays - Royce Lewis, SS/OF
5. Braves - Shane Baz, RHP
6. Athletics - MacKenzie Gore, LHP
7. DBacks - Adam Haseley, OF
8. PHILLIES - Pavin Smith, 1B
9. Brewers - Austin Beck, OF
10. Angels - J.B. Bukauskas, RHP
11. White Sox - Alex Faedo, RHP
12. Pirates - Keston Hiura, 2B/OF
13. Marlins - D.L. Hall, LHP
14. Royals - Trevor Rogers, LHP
15. Astros - Jeren Kendall, OF

[Squire]

Random thoughts:

1. Pavin Smith limping towards the finish line as of late. That being said, I've heard that UVA's stadium depresses power and the players play to that. Almaraz has always been a hit tool first with respect to position players so I do think Pavin Smith is a consideration.

2. I would take any of Wright, McKay and Bukauskas at 8. I just think that there is something about knowing that a pitcher will retain their stuff as they grow through their 18-20 years.

3. After first round (and maybe even including first round). think it's a heavy dose of HS arms. They've spent more in Latin America on position players than pitchers. The keep repeating the grow arms, buy bats mantra. And there are no glaring holes in the system.

4. We don't really have premium many if any LHPs in the system IMO.

5. I'm always interested in how the Phillies manipulate the money system if at all. Last year was the first year we saved money on a first round pick and that was a no brainer. My gut tells me they don't manipulate that much but rather sign #8 for sloes to slot.

6. I'm ok with Baz at 8.

[fish]

I wasn't too hot on Beck earlier- I am now. I like Smith, but I think Beck is a better fit.

[rkeden]

I think that 3rd base is a glaring hole. Batting averages of the prospects are lower than their weights!

[Squire]

Oh I didn't see that Mayo did a mock update last night.

1. Twins - Hunter Greene, RHP
2. Reds - Brendan McKay, LHP
3. Padres - Royce Lewis, SS/OF
4. Rays - Kyle Wright, RHP
5. Braves - Nick Pratto, 1B (underslot)
6. A's - MacKenzie Gore, LHP
7. DBacks - Pavin Smith, 1B
8. PHILLIES - J.B. Bukauskas, RHP
9. Brewers - Jordan Adell, OF
10. Angels - Adam Haseley, OF
11. White Sox - Alex Faedo, RHP
12. Pirates - Jeren Kendall, OF
13. Marlins - Griffin Canning, RHP
14. Royals - Trevor Rogers, LHP
15. Astros - Shane Baz, RHP

His comments on the Phillies were:

"The debate over high school ceiling vs. college floor will likely continue up until Draft day, with names like Beck, Baz and Rogers in the prep column and the Virginia hitters and Bukauskus, should he not go in the two picks in front, on the college side of the ledger."

With regard to Baz...in the Astros writeup he comments that Baz could go as high as 8 to the Phillies.

[allentown]

Beck not making top 15 seems a little odd.

[Squire]

They had Beck to the Yankees at 16.

[teabag259]

A Baz evaluation...

[Squire]

Winkelman made a comment that he thought that in general HS players were over-represented in the Mock Drafts at the top and then teams tend to pick more college at the top. So I looked at the last 5 drafts and the Top 10 picks:

2016: HS = 5/College = 5
2015: HS = 3/College = 7
2014: HS = 4/College = 6
2013: HS = 5/College = 5
2012: HS = 5/College = 5

So in average there is 4.4 HS players taken and 5.6 college players taken in the Top 10.

For the HS players rumored as Top 10 possibilities you've got Greene, Lewis, Gore, Baz, Beck, Adell and now Rogers
For the College players you've got McKay, Wright, Bukauskas, Smith, Haseley, Faedo, Kendall

[Squire]

Pavin Smith with quite the final regular season weekend at GaTech. 5-12, 2HRs, 2B, 9RBI, 4BB, 0K

[Austinfan]

Problem is if Smith can't play LF, what's the point of drafting a college kid who is 2-3 years away with two players ahead of him who might be more talented (given that Hoskins is tearing up AAA and Joseph has .800+ OPS in the Show).
And Cozens and Ortiz may move to 1B down the road.

[fish]

His value if you believe in Smith more than any other option. Even if that value is to someone else.

[schooldoc]

So now the Phils have the 3rd worst record in baseball. Too early for a 2018 draft thread???

The run to the 2018 #1: HOLD OUR BEER
(Get it?)

[teabag259]

I like Beer.

[Austinfan]

The darkest hour is just before dawn. Or something like that (since it isn't true, the darkest hour is the middle of the night).
Phillies should bounce back at some point, but you don't strip your farm system for a decade and expect an instant turnaround.
Picking in the top 5 next summer isn't the worst that can happen, along with a bigger LA allocation.
Though I think instead of looking for an overpriced FA, Klentak should "Hinkie" some of the salary room and trade for salary in return for prospects, i.e., I'll take your stiff if you throw in so and so.

[LoneStarPhan]

I always root for a win, ever game, but a high draft slot in 2018 would be great. I do really expect a turn around in W-L numbers later in this season, however.