Looking ahead to the 2017 draft

[bigegypt0417]

I don't want a high school kid who will likely take 4 years minimum. I want either a college bat a la Benintendi (Pavin Smith) or a potential # 1 or 2 starter out of college like Bukauskas or Wright.

I don't really care how long they take to get to the majors. Taking lesser talent for the sake of a faster return isn't something we need to do.

[fish]

I've never been in favor of drafting an older player, but I have to admit I'm still intrigued by Brent Rooker. He is basically doing what Bennintendi did, albeit playing first base. What i can't seem to find out is what his holes are.

[Squire]

Keith Law just posted his first mock but I don't have insider at ESPN.com. He usually has good info on who the Phillies are connected to. I remember him being the first guy who connected the Phillies with Jason Knapp, with Mitch Gueller and with Kevin Gowdy.

[xogfog]

Here is Law's Mock for the first 10 picks:

1. McKay
2. Greene
3. Lewis
4. Wright
5. Gore
6. Bukauskas
7. Haseley
8. Baz
9. Beck
10. Adell

[kmc1019]

Baz seems like high risk/high reward from the little I know. Would be consistent with Phillies stated strategy of "grow arms, buy bats".

[Squire]

Still a month to go but I wouldn't bet against Baz being the guy given Law's track record.

Baz would be the first true first round HS pitcher the Phillies would have selected since Jesse Biddle in 2010. Though it used to happen all the time (Kyle Drabek, Cole Hamels, Gavin Floyd, Brett Myers).

If it broke like that I'd take Pavin Smth and then Austin Beck before Baz.

Baz is rated #12 by both BA and MLB.com

[teabag259]

Perfect Game just released their first mock. It has the Phils taking Smith at 8.

2017 MLB Mock Draft Version 1

[Squire]

In his chat today, Keith Law didn't mention the Phillies specifically but did mention Pavin Smith a bit and noted that the historical track record of drafted College first basemen who don't have other positions is really, really bad which is why he has bumped him out of the first 10 picks. Which struck me as an interesting perspective.

[schooldoc]

Law says Baz has "touched 98 with a good slider. But there are concerns about his delivery and how well hitters seem to see his fastball."

Seems like correctable stuff to me, if they want to bet on his arm.

[Squire]

Callis did a full first round projection today. Again gave Baz to the Phillies but also mentioned that Baz might be out of play if he is dead set on going to TCU. Callis's Top 10 were

1. Twins - McKay
2. Reds - Greene
3. Padres - Gore
4. Rays - Lewis
5. Braves - Wright
6. Athletics - Bukauskas
7. DBacks - Smith
8. PHILLIES - BAZ (says could also look at a college bat or UFlorida RHP Alex Faedo
9. Brewers - Beck
10. Angels - Adell

[fish]

I'd put Baz in the Brett Myers category of pitcher/prospect, though the reports suggest he's better than that.

As for Smith, the track record of college third baseman is also similarly poor. The one skill that seems to overcome is defensive aptitude (which i guess may have something to do with athleticism or reaction that leads those type guys to have a better chance of becoming big leaguers). I know Smith is regarded as a good first basemen, but i'm not sure he's considered 'elite' in that regard.

[teabag259]

These guys are really good with their evaluations of pitchers. Hopefully the Phils steer clear of Faedo. It is interesting how they talk about Nola about halfway through.

[flyers19rw]

These guys comments on Nola are ridiculous. Nola was seen as having as sound mechanics and body as any pitcher had when he was coming out of LSU. Most of the reports echoed this one:

Aaron Nola: Prospect Profile for Philadelphia Phillies' 1st-Round Pick

"Nola has good strength and athleticism to his 6’2”, 196-pound frame; some room for physical projection; delivery is clean and efficient; works from incredibly deceptive three-quarters arm slot; ability to repeat release point is both advanced and impressive; very durable despite wiry frame and arm angle."

[teabag259]

Is Brent Rooker a guy who wouldn't be s reach at #8? He seemingly has it all. As of now hitting .408 with 20 HRs and 69 RBI and second in the SEC in stolen bases with 17. As much as I like Smiths bat at 8 it kind of seems like Rooker would be a more rounded prospect with more tools to utilize than a guy who is a first baseman only.

[fish]

Rooker is a bit of a stretch, but seemingly only because of his age (22) and position (1b). I think someone with extra picks in the first round is going to get him before too long- reallly interesting guy.

[LoneStarPhan]

Phillies blow another 4 run lead as the Nationals score 4 in the 5th with two outs. This is getting to be repetitious.

Again, it looks like there is no game thread for tonight.

[zambonir]

And yet somehow we had a rain-out thread last night. Maybe we should just have a series thread?

[Squire]

Disappointing weekends for Pavin Smith, Adam Haseley, Jeren Kendall and J.B. Bukauskas. Great start by Kyle Wright.

[Squire]

Jeff Ellis of Scouting Baseball posted his only mock today.

1. Twins - Hunter Greene, RHP
2. Reds - Brendan McKay, 1B
3. Padres - Royce Lewis, SS/OF
4. Rays - Austin Beck, OF
5. Braves - Kyle Wright, RHP
6. Athletics - J.B. Bukauskas, RHP
7. Diamondbacks - MacKenzie Gore, LHP
8. PHILLIES - PAVIN SMITH, 1B
9. Brewers - Alex Faedo, RHP
10. Angels - Adam Haseley, OF

[flyers19rw]

On May 11, LSU's Alex Lange threw a CG five hit SO versus Auburn. No walks and nine strikeouts. His season era is down to 2.57.