July 2019 Phils Trade Deadline Speculation/Rumors

[California_Dreamin]

Greinke has nixed a move to the Phillies, he will not waive his no trade to come to Philadelphia. Frankly, can you blame him? We had better get used to the fact that NO pitcher is coming to the Phillies unless they way overpay, I had to laugh when I read that Kapler said that he was really concerned about his clubhouse and how bringing in anyone would have to have a positive influence.

I laughed because my immediate reaction was to think..."good, then why don't you be the first one out!" I think Kapler is a terrible manager who speaks in trite and unserious gibberish that the players don't believe for one moment.

But I have felt that way since last year so that's not new. What I have recently come to conclude is that Klentak is wayyyyyy too conservative for my tastes, ditto McPhail. I find it highly unlikely that a management team of an aggressive Middleton and ultra conservatives like Klentak/McPhail can be successful. The best teams have GM's who know when to strike on a big deal and I simply see Klentak as another Wade...only spending on overpaid and under producing relievers.

And I detest the Three True Outcomes...it is a lie and will end up in the ash heap of baseball history. With a runner on third and less than two outs you MUST be able to put the ball in play and get the runner home.

Like the team has been ever since the 90's they are always two steps behind the progressive teams [Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs, Red Sox, Astros] and as they are perfecting this new philosophy the Phillies continue to lag behind the times.

Study these two Braves games closely, my fellow Phillie friends. This shows in painful detail just how far behind the Braves the Phils are. And its going to only get worse as the Braves farm system is way better than the Phils.

I pray the Phils don't move one valuable pharm piece in the next 4 days because there is no one out there that will close the gap now.

[EDmuch]

And I doubt that McFail and Matty will ever see that the first step out of this mess is to pay Cole whatever he wants to be No. 2 behind Nola. In my view a healed and healthy Arrieta should be able to give one good year next year as No. 3. Then let Elfin, Pivetta, Velasquez and whoever else (Howard?) fight it our for No. 4 & 5.

[EDmuch]

CD, I think I detest Klentak as much as you detest Kapler.

[andyb]

I find it highly unlikely that a management team of an aggressive Middleton and ultra conservatives like Klentak/McPhail can be successful

I think you might have hit the nail on the head there. One of the problems may be that Middleton and Klentak are not really on the same page. Was Klentak forced into doing the Segura trade? The re-making of the team with Santana as the first big free agent move was seen as a Klentak mistake because it forced Hoskins into the OF. But there was probably a good player evaluation of Santana built into that move too. Trading Santana and Crawford, two players who epitomize Klentak's preferred offensive approach, really seems like a move forced onto him to "clean up his mistake".

This is a front office with conflicted goals. Yes Santana was the wrong move because it forced Hoskins into the OF. But he may not have been the wrong player for our offense. The best move with Santana might have been to put him at 3B this year and make the best of it. We could still have signed Cutch if we wanted to. Or we should have found a way to flip Santana for another productive player with a big contract.

The Santana/Segura trade was good only when you factored in moving Hoskins. Beyond that it was neutral to potentially negative if Crawford developed. A front office on the same page probably does not make this sequence of moves.

[Austinfan]

I hope this season chastised Middleton, men with money think they can buy their way into success in sports, we see this all the time, and it rarely works.

Phillies were finally starting to rebuild, and I think Klentak was on the right track, what was needed was a total organizational overhaul, not some cosmetic changes at the ML level. He's done that, but I suspect it'll take 3-5 years to bear fruit, the bump in the minor league system was strictly due to RA's "going out the door" trades, which haven't look so great in hindsight - though some bad luck with injuries as well. The ten bad years of drafting and not spending in LA have come back to bite this team. That can't be reversed overnight.

The Segura trade wasn't awful, Santana really was traded for Cutch (salary for salary) which was a good move, but Segura for Crawford reeks of a push to win now, and this team wasn't ready, which is why I never got excited about signing Harper - the good thing is his $26M a year will not hinder a long-term rebuild.

We can go overspend for Cole, and it won't make a lick of difference until the farm system is rebuilt. You MUST have a steady supply of talent, both to fill holes, provide depth and cannon fodder for trades. Top organizations build a surplus of talent and trade the #2s at every spot and keep the best players.

[zambonir]

Greinke has nixed a move to the Phillies, he will not waive his no trade to come to Philadelphia.

Source?

[California_Dreamin]

andyb...yes, if you look at successful baseball management teams the ownership and management are in synche, they have similar philosophies on how to build. This Phillie organization couldn't be more polar opposites. In fact, it may be the most polar opposite top end in my lifetime.

Carpenter/Owens were glued at the hip philosophically, as were Green/Owens. Monty/Giles/Wade were also, much to our chagrin mostly. Gillick was the one autonomous figure but even he and Monty were not that dissimilar. Amaro did Monty's bidding and I believe Arbuckle didn't get the GM position because he was philosophically different than Monty/Giles.

Now we have Middleton, a man the guns, take no prisoners type owner, teamed with very conservative guys like Klentak and McPhail. Each in their own may be skilled but they form a very odd team.

My guess, and its only a guess...Klentak?McPhail wanted Machado and Middleton wanted Harper. When the GM/President gave in on Harper they were given a wink wink acknowledgement that they could now form their team around Harper since they had given in on the mega star choice.

And we are seeing the painful results of their choices...bad manager, too expensive relievers, no starting pitching and a top heavy roster.

IMHO, the worst thing that could happen to the Phils is to somehow squeeze into the playoffs and lose the one game. This will be viewed as a win for Klentak and likely diminish the chances of using the one resource the Phils have...lots of money.

[zambonir]

I think you might have hit the nail on the head there. One of the problems may be that Middleton and Klentak are not really on the same page. Was Klentak forced into doing the Segura trade? The re-making of the team with Santana as the first big free agent move was seen as a Klentak mistake because it forced Hoskins into the OF. But there was probably a good player evaluation of Santana built into that move too. Trading Santana and Crawford, two players who epitomize Klentak's preferred offensive approach, really seems like a move forced onto him to "clean up his mistake".

This is a front office with conflicted goals. Yes Santana was the wrong move because it forced Hoskins into the OF. But he may not have been the wrong player for our offense. The best move with Santana might have been to put him at 3B this year and make the best of it. We could still have signed Cutch if we wanted to. Or we should have found a way to flip Santana for another productive player with a big contract.

Most people (you included) thought the Santana to 3B thing was empty rhetoric and a huge stretch. Heck, Crawford could have played 3B!. The Segura trade is mysterious. I think the Phillies originally soured on Crawford 'cause in their minds they were getting Machado and planned to let him be the SS. Then they either worried they couldn't get Machado or someone (MIddleton) soured on Machado because of all the bad publicity. From all appearances Klentak still preferred Machado and of course they still could have signed him to play 3B but once they got Segura it made less sense.

This season still could have gone right though. The offense was supposed to outscore people (and still has, enough that we're in the playoff mix despite a horrible rotation and decimated, even overachieving, bullpen). I think 30 GMs probably would have acquired Realmuto, Segura and Harper, and with or without McCutchen this offense should be producing more. You actually can be a winner, but not indefinitely (and not without spending to the tax).

[California_Dreamin]

zambonir...Gammons wrote about it on The Athletic a couple of days ago. I was not surprised when I read it.

[zambonir]

Sorry, whatever Gammons said, I don't believe that's actually the case, nor do I trust you to paraphrase (so feel free to prove me wrong). This is a game every player plays with his no-trade clause until there's actually a deal. It's all meaningless gossip just like the free agent rumors until then. If the Phillies make AZ the best offer and there isn't another viable trade on the table on deadline day, he will probably go.

I will grant you that it is Greinke, and given his history and anxiety issues, he may not enjoy playing in a bigger media market, but that would eliminate nearly every team that could afford him too. And he did already go to LA.

[Austinfan]

Thing is, Dodgers are a conservative organization, they didn't get into a bidding war for Harper, they let Grienke walk, etc. You can have a lot of money but use it wisely, and in some ways Klentak has done so, increased the scouting and coaching staff, stuck with their commitment to Venezuela, etc.

I think the bullpen was partially bad luck, I think they've been stockpiling young arms and were hoping to spend money on veterans they could flip if the kids emerged and get some assets back (maybe retain some money). It wasn't like the guys they signed had a Lidge type injury history. Same with the Morton move, sometimes you're snakebite.

While $200M sounds like a lot, Nola, Harper, Cutch, Hoskins at some point, resigning Realmuto? Even when they clear out the bullpen salaries and dump Arrieta, they're not going to have unlimited resources to buy their way into contention. And I doubt they can get the top guys to come for just money unless they get stupid (Harper would have taken the Dodgers in a heartbeat if they were in the same ballpark with the Phillies offer, Phillies were lucky LA was committing its funds elsewhere).

The two things they need to focus on is the farm and doing a better job of adding second and third tier FAs and finding some diamonds in the rough. Phillies never get to the WS without Victorino and Werth. Klentak needs to hit a couple HRs along the way.

[California_Dreamin]

zambonr..you can chose to believe what you want. And maybe Gammons is wrong. But he wrote it a couple of days ago when discussing where various players would end up at the trading deadline. He said Greinke would NOT waive his no trad clause to come to Philadelphia as they are one of the teams on his no trade list.

I believe it. Greinke has always indicated he gets nervous in high pressure cities and Philadelphia is certainly one of them. Plus, Gammons indicated that Greinke liked it in Arizona, is now approaching potential Hall of Fame status, and had little interest in leaving the desert.

As for whether you trust me to paraphrase me or not, that is your prerogative But Gammons wrote, I read it, and I believe it.

[Taudawg]

For what it's worth, Zach Greinke has solid career numbers pithing in Philadelphia. If he's nervous playing there, he doesn't show it as the opposing pitcher.

[allentown]

What this verbiage often means is that the player wants to be bought out of his no-trade for several $million. They often stack their no-trade list not with teams they don't want to play for, but with the teams they believe are most likely to want to acquire them.

[zambonir]

I would genuinely like to see the article! (And I would like you to be a better member of this community and post links, but that's nothing new).

Usually when you do this I find the link myself and post it here but I only see two Gammons articles on the Athletic from July, one about Tatis and one from before the all-star break.

Ah, I found it. One anonymous source, from who knows where, in a tweet. An opinion/prediction, not a fact. It is 100% inaccurate to say (or to even interpret this statement as) "Greinke has nixed a move to the Phillies."

https://twitter.com/pgammo/status/1154140347984953344?s=20

(Meanwhile, yeah, are we no longer going to get dynamic tweets or will that eventually work itself out?) [Mod's note: See my comment in the Tech Support section - J]

[California_Dreamin]

allentown...I know this. Gammons was VERY specific about the Phillies and Greinke. It was talking about the Phils inquiring about Greinke [ low level prospects, pay off most of his salary] and was very clear...Greinke told the D'backs he did not want to come to the Phillies. It didn't say Yankees, it didn't say Dodgers, it didn't say Cubs, it didn't say Bad News Bears. It said Phillies.

Now we can certainly dismiss Hall of Famer Gammons has a rumor monger. We can continue to put our heads in the sand and sing Philadelphia Freedom till we are overwhelmed with pride.

Or we can come to the reality that right now the Phillies are not a preferred destination. Players talk. And I believe they are talking about Kapler. And I do not believe the talk is flattering. I believe he is a phony and they know it.

[California_Dreamin]

zambonir....thanks for the tweet but that was not what I read. I read it on The Athletic and it was not a tweet. As I indicated before, it was discussing Greinke getting close to HOF status and being quite content in Arizona. It did say he would nix all deals. It said he would nix the Phillies.

[California_Dreamin]

Meant he did not nix all trades but did nix the Phils.

[Taudawg]

Well MLB.com isn't in agreement Greinke won't waive his NTC to Phillies -

Zack Greinke trade rumors: Diamondbacks to trade pitcher to Phillies, prediction...

[California_Dreamin]

Look, I hope it happens. Greinke makes great sense and would immediately upgrade the rotation immensely, thus allowing Arrieta to have his surgery. I also have to wonder though how Arizona could justify to its paying customers trading their ace to a team that has the exact same chance of making the playoffs as they do.