July 2019 Phils Trade Deadline Speculation/Rumors

[EDmuch]

Freddy Galvis has turned into a pretty decent SS and appears to be doing well in Toronto.

[Austinfan]

All I did was post his FIPs, which suggest that his current ERA is a mirage (FIP is a better predictor of future ERA than current ERA). They're OK for a #3/#4, but you'd have to take a leap of faith to value Minor as a #2.

Minor is better than Eflin right now, but really, you're going to give up a young SP for a guy who might be worth 1-2 wins this year and next season, which isn't going to make us a WS contender. Doesn't make sense. And throwing in Medina from a thin farm system makes even less sense.

Giving up real assets to increase the still long chances of being a wildcard team and then a 50/50 shot in a one game playoff? That would only make sense for a veteran team that was underachieving, with the window closing, and the hope that lightning could strike in the playoffs if they got there (the last gasp before we rebuild strategy).

[andyb]

Except you posted Eflin's best FIP and compared it to Minor's worst. That is being selective. Minor is also pitching in just about the worst pitching environment and other stats like WAR show him to be much better than Eflin. Guys who K 7/9 generally don't get much better after 3 or 4 years in the majors.

We agree that Minor is better now. Where we disagree is in thinking Eflin is better than a 4th or 5th starter. His value to me is as a back end guy that eats innings and does not embarrass you. He just does not seem to have the stuff to be dramatically better and 3 years beyond his surgery is a little late to think that might be the reason he has not taken a step forward. As I keep saying he has decent trade value now. The other thing is I am a little more willing to make a trade now to position the team for the playoffs. You see little value in that. I see some (though not enough to deal Bohm or Howard).

[andyb]

Freddy Galvis has turned into a pretty decent SS and appears to be doing well in Toronto.

True. But he topped out as a 2 WAR guy (6.7 WAR career) and those guys are just not that scarce in the majors.

I am hoping Garcia can be more than that. If he is plus defensively and can put together an offensive line like 275/330/400 while matching Galvis on defense then he would be more of a 3 WAR type of player, 4 WAR in his peak years. Galvis never had a good enough OBP for him to be a productive offensive player even if he hit 20 HR. Garcia is walking more than Galvis did at Lakewood. Striking out more too unfortunately.

[Austinfan]

I posted both pitchers' last two seasons' FIPs. Before that Minor was injured, then a RP, Eflin was in the minors.

[andyb]

FIP is not park adjusted so that hurts Minor. And you did highlight Eflin's best and Minor's worst. Minor has a much more extensive track record too and other stats like WAR show this. FIP is just not used that often to be the sole comparison of how good players are which is the way you used it. FIP is useful to see if seasonal variations from the same pitcher in the same park are meaningful or just a small sample size/BABIP variation. It is less good the way you used it.

Minor also was a reliever for only 1 year. He had 6 years of starts in Atlanta with a 3.90 FIP if that is where you are going with your comparison. He is just better than Eflin. Eflin is still decent. He just does not really have the stuff to be much better than he has already been.

[David_Criss]

https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/1154817502200979456

Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
Phillies are among teams looking at Tanner Roark. As always they prefer pitchers with team control beyond 2019, but there are few of those available.

[Taudawg]

Hopefully marginal improvements, such as a Roark, mean the Phils hold on to what farm they have. They really need to be measured on their approach with this squad.

[mdougherty12]

I would have guessed that Tanner Roark is 29 or so, not ~2 months shy of 33, as I just learned looking him up on Baseball-Reference.

[EDmuch]

The current dilemma is all on the GM. It is bad enough that he did not make a decisive move to improve the pitching in the off-season, But the fact that he let our division rival scoop up Keuchel on a one year deal for chickenfeed money is truly damning to the perception of his competence. Last year he had a first place team to which he made additions that did not factor in clubhouse chemistry and turned that first p[lace team into a dead fish. This year he has a pitching staff that was clearly suffering from a significant amount of injuries and he made no effort to sign a former Cy Young winner to a one year deal. It seems to me that we no longer have the prospects to throw around for a big trade deadline deal. So the best we can hope for is the Moran's of the world to be added.

[EDmuch]

I seriously question whether we have the prospects to obtain a Tanner Roark.

[allentown]

I seriously question whether we have the prospects to obtain a Tanner Roark.

We certainly do, but it would be dumb to squander them in this way. The Braves are significantly better than the Phillies. This is a gap which can't be closed by adding Tanner Roark and sacrifices future years of contention, where we will have a better shot at progressing in the playoffs.

Given the situation the Phillies have been in, I think a very bad approach by Klentak is his unwillingness to spend for FAs. He'd rather trade young talent and get a 'bargain $' price, when the $ are the resource we are fattest in. We have Harper, because Middleton insisted. We have Arrietta, because Middleton insisted. Like RAJ and Wade, Klentak is much more comfortable overpaying for relief pitchers, since the price is low compared to a SP or plus position player. Yes, we should have signed Keuchel if we could have gotten him for what the Braves paid --- but, we might also have tried and Keuchel naturally saw the Braves as a better chance to win.

We got Segura and Realmuto for prospects and younger MLB guys. That was quite enough subtraction of young talent for one season. We have seen enough of this season to know it should not be 'all in; time.

[andyb]

I seriously question whether we have the prospects to obtain a Tanner Roark.

I don't think it would cost much. 3rd tier prospect plus picking up the remainder of his salary this year (like $4 million). Someone like Conor Seabold or Austin Listi would probably get it done.

[Austinfan]

"Yes, we should have signed Keuchel if we could have gotten him for what the Braves paid --- but, we might also have tried and Keuchel naturally saw the Braves as a better chance to win."

My suspicion is that this was the case.

Fans like to assume you can sign anyone, but the reality is that money is so good that unless you grossly overpay players go where they want to go for their personal reasons.

[andyb]

Diekman to the A's so he is off the board.

https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/1155188823657189376

[montanaphil]

With the Diamondbacks supposedly willing to trade Greinke, do you think that if a team offered to take Yasmany Tomas and his contract with him do you think that you could make a trade without having to have a top 50 prospect?

[allentown]

If you're talking a straight-up trade, with the Diamondbacks not sending $, you could get a top 50 prospect back and just send whatever eyewash lower prospects, sort of major leaguers you don't want as eyewash for the commish. Greinke is having a very good year, but he is 35 and in addition to the residue of this year's $35 million salary, is also owed $35 million for his age 36 and 37 season = not a good bet. Tomas is the trifecta of hasn't been very good, isn't playing, and owed $17 million for next season. AZ wants to shed $.

[fish]

Greinke is having a very good year, but he is 35 and in addition to the residue of this year's $35 million salary, is also owed $35 million for his age 36 and 37 season = not a good bet.

Agreed. The appealing thing about Greinke has been his durability and production- much like McCutchen and Robertson. If you get him and he breaks down, the logical evaluation is “well, he’s 35, pitchers will break down eventually”. Paying an older guy for past durability has to be the big lesson learned from this year.

Nothing would be more crippling to your roster than having 2 starting pitchers making 60 million that stink. Luckily it wouldn’t happen the same time as having 4 relievers making 40 million that stink.

[zambonir]

Greinke is the Tomas in any trade. You don't need a sweetener. If I were the Phillies and everyone was healthy I'd be looking to send back Nicasio or Hunter (assuming they acquired some other bullpen help) to make the DBacks take on a little salary temporarily too but that's obviously not an option anymore.

I'm open to getting Greinke but Arizona has to pay some of it. If the alternative is giving up prospects for Robbie Ray or giving 6 years to Gerrit Cole (and outbidding everyone else) you have to consider it.

[andyb]

Agree on Grienke. I don't think AZ can trade him without getting some prospects back. That means AZ needs to pay down 30%-50% of that contract. To me that would mean it might be worth the risk if we had a team 2-3 games behind the Braves. The risk is having a couple more years at $20 million or so with an age 36 or 37 pitcher. That risk might be worth it if we could see a path to the division. Unfortunately I can't at this point.

We are a team where Vince Velazquez might be our number 2 starter. Hard to bet on that team at the moment.