2024 Trade Deadline Speculation

[owaistabish]

Randy A and a reunion with Zach Efflin perhaps? Thoughts?

[zambonir]

I really don't think they are in on the starting pitchers. But choosing Walker over Eflin still hurts. Last year they were pretty equal and I really did think Zach would end up getting hurt again. But hard to imagine Walker winning that race over the three years (and losing it even more in the fourth).

I will say that it's kind of interesting that they probably want to go to a six-man on August 2 (the West Coast trip) but don't actually have six pitchers. In the Inquirer today Lauber said Walker is still a "few weeks" away and Turnbull looking at end of August.

[zambonir]

So, Crochet doesn't have a no-trade clause, so he's using a possible innings limit to imply he wouldn't be that eager to join a contender and or go back to the bullpen. A little different from Spencer Turnbull. I don't blame him if he doesn't want to push it (he's already at 111 after pitching just 12 in '22 and '23 combined) but not sure a new contract is a reason to push it either (even if the argument is it insulates him from another injury).

Sources: Trade-target Crochet wants new deal

[bkox]

Full trade, per ESPN sources:

Seattle Mariners receive: outfielder Randy Arozarena

Tampa Bay Rays receive: outfielder Aidan Smith, right-hander Brody Hopkins and a player to be named last.

— Jeff Passan ( @JeffPassan ) July 26, 2024

12 and 22 prospects in Seattle's system.

Full deal:

Arizona Diamondbacks receive: left-handed reliever A.J. Puk.

Miami Marlins receive: CIF Deyvison De Los Santos and CF Andrew Pintar.

Deal is done. Diamondbacks get the bullpen arm they've been seeking.

And trade season is officially on.

— Jeff Passan ( @JeffPassan ) July 26, 2024

De Lo Santos becomes the Marlins #4 prospect. Pintar #19

[BaseballCat]

I might have done a similar first trade, but would never give up that much for Puk. Wow

[phillychuck]

Should have matched for Arozarena.

[zambonir]

That seems like a pretty low price for Randy, but just goes to show you that's not what the Phillies are looking for. We've already heard that Pham might not be a good fit due to lack of playing time so could be a similar situation here.

And he was Nick-like for much of this season. In his case the control wasn't necessarily a plus.

Mariners are actually the team we think the Phillies are when things don't look good. Blew a nine game lead.

[BostonRoss]

Matching doesn’t necessarily get you anything; the Rays could choose either of two equal offers and might well overvalue the Mariners’ package or not prefer the Phillies’. The question is whether the Phillies should have offered more.

[zambonir]

Question is whether they offered anything

[zambonir]

@Matt_Winkelman's Twitter is a good read on the trade

[Matt_Winkelman]

For those that don't want to wade through the quagmire.

• Rays have weird evaluations, and likely have both prospects as fringe top 100 prospects
• Various public rankings are absolute garbage
• The pitcher in particular has some traits (athleticism, new to full time pitching, riding fastball, low release point) that teams like the Rays really value, there isn't really a guy with that collection of traits in the Phillies system
• Rays prefer to get these pre-breakout guys from the low minors who are far away from 40 man implications, the Phillies would prefer to trade from their guys in the mid to high minors who have 40 man implications
• Phillies probably could have beat the deal, but is that cost (I estimated Tait + Klassen + mystery PTBNL, and maybe the Rays don't like those particular guys) worth what the Phillies would actually need from Arozarena

I believe the Phillies had interest, but that price is more than what I believe the Phillies have been shopping for and want.

[andyb]

So Mark Canha might actually fit the OF portion of what they want? Or someone with a similar lesser prospect price?

[Matt_Winkelman]

Canha feels like the fall back of nothing else happening. I think a Ward+Estevez or Thomas+Finnegan deal is the most likely to me, or one of those OF and then a RP from elsewhere. I think they are asking around and keeping their eyes and ears open, but they want things that fit their needs at prices they want to pay.

[phillychuck]

they want things that fit their needs at prices they want to pay.

Don't we all?

[nycphils]

I think I would have done Tait/Klassen and some 100mph throwing reliever with control issues but big upside for Arozarena. I think he was the best fit out there for the LF spot.

[phillychuck]

I agree NYC...I'm sorry we missed that, but maybe DD has something on the back burner that is not public that is better.

[zambonir]

Arozarena has certainly gotten hot the past couple of months, but trading for him would have meant a lot less Rojas, not a LF platoon or Arozarena and Marsh. Certainly there's a case to be made for that but still doesn't seem like what the Phillies really want.

And what if he doesn't stay hot? I think his playoff performance is also probably overrated (just inasmuch as those things are inherently small samples and streaks).

[Callison]

Regardinhg Mason Miller, fractured non-throwing pinkie. Scribe says he can throw in a cast and will shortly. After watching recent meltdowns in the Phils pen, this guy is way attractive. Like a Ferarri with a scratch, the price and demand remain unaffected. Of all the players the Phils are considering, this one is a difference maker and I hope they somehow get him.

OTOH, hard to see where the OF search is going. Stated no interest in Chisolm, Rooker. Huge approach/avoidance on Robert - seems the Phils would be unlikely to gamble on him unless the price is right. Could be that's what we're waiting for. Saw some scribe even included Bellinger's name - like the Phils want a $27M/yr player hitting .275.

[zambonir]

The OF search is over. They just acquired a 2023 All-Star who makes $6.3 million and does exactly what they needed, Plus he can still be on the team next year and isn't even
unplayable against RHP in his career.

Like andy says, they could still go upgrade the Dahl/Clemens spot for a LHB bench bat.

Always figured they might do better shipping out Seranthony or Soto vs. simply dropping Ruiz or Marte if they went for a higher-end reliever. Clearly they are going to shop on that shelf. They got their OF without trading a single prospect.

[andyb]

Luis Robert does not really make sense any more as a right-handed bat.

Focus is definitely on the bullpen now though without Seranthony. I was never huge on Finnegan, but he might put Hoffman back in the 7th to 8th inning role where he is best. We'll mix and match the 3 LHPs as we see how they pitch. I am less concerned with Alvarado than I was with Seranthony ever claiming a major role though.