2024 Trade Deadline Speculation

[andyb]

Bowden's latest suggestion is Robert for Crawford and Abel. More realistic than the last one though I hate trading Abel for a discount (and teams may not want him now anyway).

[zambonir]

Well, maybe trading a tarnished top three prospect saves you from trading two other top 10 pitchers instead. But that, on the one hand, still seems like a lot for a player with some flaws, and not enough if other teams want him or the Sox are content to keep him one more season.

[VoteForKalas]

Ughh, I dislike that trade

[zambonir]

I wouldn't worry about it. Just another Bowden fantasy baseball column. Gelb says the Phillies have little interest in trading Crawford, Painter or Miller, which also pretty much means they aren't in the market for an "impact-type" player. Platoon LF and pen remain priority; he dismisses ("according to multiple major league sources") any talk of starting pitchers.

Phillies takeaways: Latest on trade deadline aims, bullpen letdowns and more

[andyb]

Our two top picks in the draft this year probably do increase the possibility of dealing Crawford. Much depends I think on whether the decision-makers think Rojas will ever hit enough and the book is still very unclear on that. I think Crawford will hit enough to be a starting CF. The question for him is whether he will ever have enough power to be a good starting CF.

[Austinfan]

Crawford will develop power with that frame.
If he's a plus fielding CF with elite speed, OBP would be more important than OPS anyway.
Same holds for Caba.

[julio]

If he's a plus fielding CF with elite speed, OBP would be more important than OPS anyway.

This is really a key. If a player with speed and defense brings a high enough OBP, SLG really does become a luxury. If you have both, you're a superstar. We want superstars, of course, but we don't need eight of them in the lineup.

[Austinfan]

If Crawford and Caba can give you OPB > .350 at the top of the lineup with the speed to pressure pitchers, that a great table setter.

I think the guy under the radar right now is Ricones, who seems to be finally healthy, He could be the replacement for Castellanos in 2027. With Crawford, Ricones, Lee Sang and Pineda the Reading OF ain't a bad group. Unfortunately, Ethan Wilson is looking like a wasted 2nd rd pick.

[andyb]

There are serious doubts about whether Crawford will develop the power to be a good starting CF. And without some power it will be hard to get a 350+ OBP. That is part of Stott's problem now. The jury is still very much out on Crawford as it is with most prospects. Right now Rojas has very little power also. He chases pitches out of the zone and can't do much with pitches in the zone. Crawford has a better hit tool foundation than Rojas, but changing his swing to add power could subtract from other aspects of his game.

[nycphils]

If we want a difference maker, that requires trading top prospects. The fantasy that we can hold onto them all and still make a big move is just that - fantasy. Miller and Painter should clearly be untouchable, since they can be foundational players if they work out, and the evidence thus far for working out is pretty good.

I can understand the thought that Crawford is in that same class, but we do have plenty of fairly high ceiling CF prospects, and the same goes for Caba at SS as well (including Miller).

[BostonRoss]

I’m mixed on trading Painter. On the one hand, his value is down because of the injury, though for a team that’s building that is less of an issue. On the other hand, if he never makes it back, we’ve wasted an asset.

[Austinfan]

Tell it to Richie Ashburn.
The reason most hitters don't have high OBP is lack of patience and inability to make contact.

Stott could have a high walk rate if he wanted to, he has the bat control to force deep counts (though not this season, he's really in a funk right now), he's just a "hit first" guy.

A lot of Phillies hitters are too eager and chase balls out of the zone - if you just stop doing that and accept the Umpire will occasionally screw you (but it tends to even out) - you can run deep counts and walk a lot without hurting you as a hitter. Harper is a good example.

Power makes a pitcher more careful, but so does the ability to foul off strikes you can't hit for high BABIP, it's an art but some hitters can do it - and if you force a pitcher into deep counts, they miss eventually.

[andyb]

Geez, not everyone is a Hall of Famer. Not everyone can be Joe Morgan either (Jimmy Rollins was pretty good as is).

Hitting for power and hitting for discipline are two very different things. It is what makes Bryce Harper great and Nick Castellanos merely average. It is not as if Nick is not trying as your comments imply, it is just hard to be good at both

It will be hard for Crawford too. The comments on this thread are about valuing Crawford as a prospect, not really whether he has a chance to make it. His evaluation now lacks power. That limits his trade value somewhat. He is still a valuable trade piece, just nowhere near as valuable as you imply. Robert is not my favorite trade target, but Crawford as the main piece coming back is probably a reasonable deal.

[zambonir]

I don't think Crawford is untouchable if you're trading for a controllable CF. Nor Rojas for that matter. I just don't know that Robert is the guy, or if there's anyone else (including a full-time LF who would push Marsh to CF) at that level available. Those tend to be off-season deals.

Painter's just really good. There's no reason to think he won't make it back unless he gets hurt again. He's neither Abel nor Mark Appel, yet. If he disappoints he's still probably a ML pitcher.

Now, he might still get traded if the Phillies' rotation is set for several years to come. That would mean extending Ranger and not only keeping but actually pitching Walker. But since neither neither of those two things are certain, he should still be untouchable in addition to the fact that you'd be selling low.

[Austinfan]

My problem with Robert is his 34% K rate combined with a salary jump to $20M I think next year.

So you're giving away major assets to a player who might have peaked. Steady increase in K rate last three seasons, from 20% to 34% suggests he's being exposed - as does his .227 BA with .291 BABIP.

Now maybe he fell in love with the HR and can be taught to rein it in, but that's a big gamble.

[xogfog]

Jim Bowden floats a trade with the White Sox for Crochet and Robert for Crawford, Abel, Caba, Aldegheri and I would imagine a lesser prospect or two. That would be intriguing. Crochet would be a luxury, but a good one to have. If the Phillies did that, they could trade Sanchez in the offseason while his value is high to get back some prospects.

[andyb]

I might prefer the Randy Arozarena rumors. Mostly a LF defensively at this point and not a great one. Slightly down offensive year but 964 OPS in the last 28 days. Right-handed so would platoon with Marsh in LF and good enough offensively that he could play LF with Marsh in CF against right-handed pitching. $8.1 million salary with 2 years of arbitration left and Tampa not really wanting to pay $10+ million a year for him.

Figure the prospect cost for him would be mid-level. Yes that probably means someone like Klassen or Aldegheri. Same range as Winker but more years of control.

Never said I liked Robert as a fit at all. I am much more into fixing LF and reserving the option of moving Marsh to CF more if Rojas does not hit (and keeping either Rojas or Pache around for defense).

[zambonir]

Randy A is a good one for something more than just a platoon bat, especially since Tampa wants to unload the future $. There's also Mark Canha as a rental alternative to Thomas.

And Finnegan, like Thomas, comes with a year of control. So those two together would probably be pretty costly too.

Wonder what will happen to Pache.

[andyb]

Canha should be really cheap I guess. Definitely on the down side of his career. He could almost be free prospect-wise if a team pays him the rest of the year. $11.5 million deal which is more than his prospect value at this point.

[Aquapong]

Damn Mason Miller to the DL with a broken hand. I don’t know if the A’s would’ve gotten a package big enough for him, but that takes a big chip off the table.