2024 Trade Deadline Speculation

[nycphils]

What would you deal for Luis Robert Jr? 850ish OPS guy, can play CF, 26 y.o. and signed through 2027.

Would you deal Abel, Crawford, Aldegheri, Ricketts and Pache? Would think Abel is the iffy name there - what would be enough?

[zambonir]

I would not deal Crawford for anyone, and I doubt they will. If you're really going to get Robert and make him your CF you may as well deal Rojas (wouldn't do that either).

Maybe I'll feel differently if the more challenging schedule results in a team that only plays .500 ball and loses its lead in the division over the next six weeks, or if they get swept at home by the Yankees before the trade deadline, but right now why exactly does a .700 team have to make a major roster upgrade, especially considering they've been doing it without their second-best offensive player for a month already? Marsh's injury is not a reason (they won't be making a deal in the next month and it doesn't sound like he'll be out that long anyway) and right now neither is Nick (1.052/.819 in last 7/14 days). Rojas is still not there but seems to be in the middle of key moments (both defensively and offensively) pretty regularly.

To me the signature characteristics of this team and its success are patience (which comes from the manager) and stability (in that Dombrowski decided not to make any major changes from last year's team). And they are currently first in MLB in runs scored so it's not like the offense is lagging behind the elite pitching.

Just go get one of the Tommy Pham/Tyler O'Neil types, get rid of Merrifield and let either Clemens or Dahl stick over Pache (or hope they keep Pache rather than Merrifield if they acquire a LHB).

[VoteForKalas]

With DD in charge, I would not be as confident in him retaining our top prospects if opportunities, in his mind, arise to improve the team.

I think the OF is the most logical areas that he may feel needs improvement. He has plenty of time and the team's performance so far gives him comfort they may be fine, but also extra leverage if he decides to kick tires..He has the luxury of not having to act, but also the urgency to win before this vet corps starts to be broken up.

The pen could be another area of focus, but it is stronger than the OF and may just need more consistency from SD and Soto to be great if Turnbull stays put.

In a nutshell, all options are available to DD and we have to trust he will do what is needed to help us get over the hump and hoist another WS trophy. It has been a great ride so far.

[zambonir]

I just don't know that Dombrowski's reputation for going big/thinking short-term is still relevant here (much as Gillick was not at all "Stand Pat' during his Phillies tenure). His tenure has been far more big-picture than expected, he's under contract until 2027 himself, and if he steps down early it will probably only be to let Fuld take over. He's not gonna leave the franchise worse than he found it.

Of course I still agree there is urgency - pressure, even - and a short window to win now. But October is always a coin flip.

I also agree that if a big package did get given up, it would be for a controllable player, which at least means improving the team next year (or beyond).

Whit Merrifield still has more ABs than any one on the bench (even Sosa, slightly). He and Pache together have about the same amount of playing time as Marsh or Rojas. I think upgrading that single OF spot (with Clemens and Sosa as pure IFs) would be plenty.

Just don't see them replacing Castellanos and even if he doesn't get where we'd like him to be, the '22 team almost won it all with the worst version of him, and he's still capable of being the '23 NLDS version of himself (which he's also been in the past week) just as much as he is the '23 NLCS guy. But we shall see. You certainly want to at least have a better option (and better pinch-hitters) than last year's team had.

[VoteForKalas]

Agree on many of your points.

The four things that eventually doomed the team the last two years IMO are:

-Not winning the division and having to play more on the road to advance
-Defensive struggles at multiple positions
-Lacking quality offensive depth in the lineup and bench
-Lacking quality pitching depth in the rotation

All four of these elements are looking better this season so far.

We have a 7 game lead in the division and there is really only one team (ATL) that can catch us unless we implode. WSH is 15 back as of today.

The overall defense has been enhanced with Turner & Stott in their best spots, Sosa playing excellent SS, Schwarber staying at DH and Rojas & Realmuto continuing to shine. I think the pitchers trust the defense a lot more this season and are pitching with more confidence because of that.

The offensive depth is improved with the continued growth of Bohm, Stott & Marsh along with Sosa & Rojas showing more than expected. Plus, like you said, we at least have options in Pache, Clemens et al. if someone gets nicked up or struggles. Merrifield has been the one flop, we have to hope he improves or DD finds a better option. Casty? I've pretty much resigned to what he is: solid defensively and a streaky roller coaster at the plate. I cannot even whine about Stubbs who is doing the best he can.

The rotation depth is definitely better or performing better so far. Suarez & Sanchez have been revelations to support the stability of Wheeler & Nola. Turnbull a pleasant surprise as well. Only Walker remains a question mark; hopefully he finds a groove and can contribute more. I assume they will skip him in the playoffs again if all goes well.

Health issues may force DD's hand, but otherwise we are in really great shape and have maximum optionality at the deadline. We'll see what happens!

[zambonir]

I dunno if I agree about the wild card/road games really hurting them. You can make the case that they were tired by the Astros series, but also that the difference between a 106-win team and an 87-win team just showed out. You can also make the case that last year's team was tired from the previous year (same with the Astros).

But none of it will matter if they win the East and then do as Atlanta did the last two years (or the Dodgers for that matter). Don't get me wrong, I'm happy to find out, especially since I don't like our chances (as a wild card) of beating Atlanta in a short series three straight times.

I really think luck and hotness was the story of the whole playoffs last year. But, luck is also tomorrow starting pitching and if the Phillies can keep doing what they are doing that means a whole lot in the last two rounds. They are built for a longer series now.

Agreed about the defense being an unsung factor in all of this, which is also why I'm reluctant to make it worse in LF (with whomever besides Pache) or CF (if Marsh plays there more) trying to chase a few more hits.

[Patchmk88]

I actually thought that bullpen depth hurt us last year. Kimbrel killed us in the DBacks series.

[andyb]

It was not really depth though last year. Kimbrel had by most accounts a good year. He just wasn't pitching well at the end. He had earned the right to be put in pressure situations. Sometimes your pitchers don't pitch well.

Depth is less of a problem this year because the back end has been better. Ruiz and Marte look better than what we had previously. Soto and Dominguez have faltered some. But Strahm and Kerkering and Hoffman have all improved to some degree. I actually worry a little bit about Alvarado because he is less dominant now. But that is a quality issue, not a depth issue.

[zambonir]

You could make the case that it was a little bit of a depth issue because the Phillies had too much faith in Kerkering and Lorenzen instead of making a clearer bullpen trade, and also they overused Kimbrel during the season. But, a loss was probably going to find Kimbrel eventually (and neither of his bad outings were in 9th innings or save situations, which he famously hates and has struggled in). Just like they also found Alvarado and, eventually, Paul Sewald.

What's exciting this year is that it's a lot less likely they will go bullpen-heavy in Ranger's starts. And that no matter what happens with Walker either Turnbull or Sanchez or both will also be available out of the pen at various points.

They've got seven weeks to continue taking stock of Soto, Seranthony, Ruiz and Marte, while hoping everyone else stays healthy. My guess is they will still add an arm; what caliber depends on how that group looks and which one of them might lose his spot if called for.

[zambonir]

I just filled out my first NL all-star ballot and let me tell you, there are about 10 guys on there that the Phillies could get cheap for the outfield. Unfortunately few of them are actually upgrades ATM!

Marsh is among the top guys by OPS. Yelich and Profar are the only ones over .900 and there's nobody else over .800 (in the NL).

[andyb]

So Casty could be the All Star upgrade we need if he gets back to what he did last year?

[zambonir]

I gather it's an MLB-wide issue, depressed outfielder offense (or, perhaps, a preference for defense?)

Bellinger has the third-highest OPS at .784, not what $27.6 million is supposed to buy you. Then it's Conforto, Hernandez, Tatis Jr. and Marsh.

I missed one guy above .800, Heliot Ramos (guess I should have voted for him).

Duvall and Rosario both awful. And Corbin Carroll's a bigger problem than Rojas still.

Better modest trade options on the AL side though the presumably not-modest Arozarena is at .591 OPS.

Matt Vierling has been having a good season.

[andyb]

Luis Robert is at .866 and in CF so he'd definitely be an upgrade. He'd be more expensive than Tucker potentially because of his contract and the extra value in CF. One also wonders if they are fine with Rojas and his defense no matter what. If so then they are more likely looking at a bench upgrade to pinch hit for Rojas.

[zambonir]

For sure I just don't think they are really going to shop on that shelf, whether for Rojas or Castellanos. I still say just replace Pache with a decent bench OF bat and replace Merrifield with Clemens (or Dahl). But the "decent bench OF bat" options didn't look as good as I thought they might. Which is also how the Phillies felt last year too obviously.

[andyb]

Or replace Merrifield with that OF bat. Not sure I want to give up on Pache quite yet and it really is not like we use Merrifield in a lot of situations where he is the best alternative. When Trea is back Sosa will just be better than Merrifield in every plausible situation offensively and defensively.

[zambonir]

Yeah but I think you need a LHB on the bench, and a RHB to play LF. Otherwise you've got Pache/Rojas which is two weak bats or Marsh/Pache which is duplicative of Marsh/Rojas. Or you have a LHB OF and Marsh in CF but I don't think they really want to do that to Rojas.

I'm just assuming Pache can be included in one off the two trades (the other being for a reliever). But they gotta be willing to gas Merrifield.

[zambonir]

Gelb noted this the other day:

The Phillies do not have a set plan for left field. They have lagged in offensive production from their outfield all season; the Phillies entered Monday with a .635 OPS from the outfielders. That ranked 25th in Major League Baseball. (Oddly enough, outfielders across MLB had a .694 OPS, which would be the lowest for that position since 1917.)

David Dahl joins the party as the Phillies begin the outfield replacements dance

[andyb]

That probably refers more to the next couple of weeks without Marsh. Wilson is in the mix too and may not get in a game since Dahl has played well and the Phillies see the need to try to fix Merrifield at the moment rather than give Wilson a chance (who will almost certainly be optioned when the first injured player is back).

[zambonir]

yeah I wasn't pointing to the Phillies' LF situation but rather the decline in OF offense leaguewide (which still doesn't make the Phillies' ranking look good but when you've got the IF and pitching they have....)

[xogfog]

I think a fair trade for Luis Robert Jr. would be Rojas, Crawford, Abel and Caba.