2024 Trade Deadline Speculation

[andyb]

Mullins' walk rate seems to be collapsing this year so I am not sure that we want him for 2 years. He is probably a little better than Marsh in CF but really not much better.

I still like the idea of Winker. LH bat that would push Marsh into CF more often. Still let Rojas play CF against LHP and against certain teams or with pitchers like Wheeler who give up more fly balls. Winker/Wilson in LF, Marsh/Rojas in CF. The defensive alignment with Mullins might be a bit better pushing Marsh to LF, but Winker is that 800 OPS bat we probably need.

Then the question is would I give up Klassen for Winker. I might.

[zambonir]

Can we get Winker and Thomas? And Finnegan?

[andyb]

If we add Painter and Rojas and Caba to the deal.

[Jazzhead]

Both Winker and Mullins had career years in 2021 which they haven't replicated since, and are both about the same age (Winker 30, Mullins 29). A lot depends, I think, on which currently belongs to a more motivated seller. Both teams seek to move these guys because they are blocking younger outfielders with perceived greater potential, but the difference is that the Orioles' goal is to win this year while the Nats are building for the future. Given that, and that Winker is having a better year, I'm guessing the prospect cost would be greater to pry him loose. The Orioles have injuries in their starting rotation - could someone like Turnbull help get us Mullins?

[andyb]

Trading Turnbull would be interesting, though I think I want him more than Phillips in my September rotation. I suppose Walker is a wild card in this too. If he did come back healthy then Turnbull would definitely be tradeable (since he'll cost much more next year anyway).

I just like Winker as a pure rental that likely won't have a top prospect cost. We are probably going to trade a pitcher (Klassen, Aldegheri, Cabrera, McGowan are probably the ones teams will want outside of Painter and a discounted Abel). I guess I am OK losing someone from that first list for a useful rental. I almost wish Winker made $10 million because his cost would be less then.

[zambonir]

could someone like Turnbull help get us Mullins?

No. Turnbull's not gonna get you much of anything since he can't pitch before the trade deadline. He might get you some other team's Cristian Pache or one lottery ticket prospect if the Phillies were willing to risk their own depth (or actually acquired another SP).

Maybe the Phillies could give the O's prospects that they then flip to help the major league team (or to replenish depth after other deals they've made) but Mullins is not going to be any cheaper than any of the other non-rentals out there, even with his downward trend.

[Callison]

The Phillies are hopeful that Taijuan Walker will return to their @MLB rotation in August.

Me, too - August, 2034 or so.

[Austinfan]

To be fair to Walker, if he's healthy and has his normal velocity, he's good for half a season.

Something to watch with Ranger down the stretch, some pitchers just don't have the stamina to maintain a high level of performance over 30 starts.

[zambonir]

At this point they probably don't care if they go .300 or .400 in Walker's starts, he'll probably only make three meaningful ones (in August) and 3 or 4 meaningless ones (in September). Turnbull is still a bigger question mark just because of his health, and Phillips, who knows (but one of them would still be in the six-man rotation too).

Far more curious if there is any truth to the report that they are interested in adding a starter. That would at minimum suggest they may not be sure about Sanchez given his road performance, or still want the option of using Suarez in a more limited flex role.

Either way, they will be managing everybody's workload after next week.

[Jazzhead]

One way, I suppose, to improve the bullpen (albeit with two many lefties) is to put Ranger there and then add a starter. There's always the option of managing Ranger's innings so he can be restored to the rotation come playoff time, hopefully at better strength than he's been showing lately as the season slogs along.

A move to acquire a starter also allows the luxury for a team with an 8-game lead to move to a six man rotation, conserving everyone's strength for the playofffs.

The big play, I guess, would be to trade for Crochet and immediately move to a six man rotation. The worry with Crochet is that he'll be spent when the playoffs arrive, and the Phillies have the big advantage here in being in a position to conserve his innings,

[zambonir]

Starters are expensive though. There are scenarios, yeah, but it feels like gilding the lily. They already have enough arms to go with a six-man rotation, most of whom are still better than most teams' third starter (not Walker, but Sanchez, and Turnbull if he comes back healthy and Phillips for as long as he can get away with it).

Now, we'd really be talking if they did put Turnbull into another trade, or figured out a way to offload Walker's contract without having to include an extra prospect (just money).

[Austinfan]

I don't think Ranger or Suarez are really suited to bullpen work. Same with Walker.
Ideal conversion is guy with 1-2 secondaries and a FB that ticks up 2-3 MPH out of the pen.
Wheeler for example would probably be back to 97 out of the pen for one inning, but he's too valuable for that role.

[VoteForKalas]

I think it would be hard for Ranger or Suarez to pitch with half a body lol

[nycphils]

I don’t think it is realistic to expect they will transition Ranger to the bullpen and then back to the rotation for the playoffs, but otherwise that is a pretty strange take since Ranger was excellent out of the bullpen a couple of years ago.

[zambonir]

Yes, Ranger is demonstrably suited to bullpen work, as well as to a flex role. It would be curious to limit him in that way given how excellent he was to start the season, let alone squander assets trying to do better, but neither his excellence nor his durability is a sure thing right now.

And Sanchez has also spent most of his MLB career as a reliever. Not a memorable one, but he can do it. And will, unless he's left off the NLDS roster entirely.

[Austinfan]

Ranger hasn't pitched out of the pen since 2021.
He was effective, but moved into the starting rotation in August.
Most of his relief appearances were with 2-3 days rest.

[Philsmania]

Ranger hasn't pitched out of the pen since 2021.
He was effective, but moved into the starting rotation in August.
Most of his relief appearances were with 2-3 days rest.

It was the Postseason but Suarez did pitch out of the bullpen to closeout the 2022 NLCS clincher two days after he started Game 3.

[nycphils]

Not sure that Bowden’s views should be given much weight and don’t think he has any sources, but here was a deal he described when asked “what would it take”:

Arozerena and Pete Fairbanks from the Rays

For

Rojas, Caba, Rincones and one of McFarlane/McGowan/other lower level pitching prospect

[schillingfan]

After this awfu road trip I think we’re going to get another bullpen arm. I guess the first half was too good to be true.

[zambonir]

He was literally the closer in 2021 for a while. They also were clearly ready to use him out of the pen in the 2023 playoffs, it just didn't end up lining up that way (in the NLDS because it ended without needing him, in the NLCS because they needed him as a starter).

He's too good to actually convert to relief as things stand today, but if the Phillies were really going to go out and get some of the names mentioned, someone does lose their top four rotation spot.