2024 Trade Deadline Speculation

[BostonRoss]

I remember when we didn’t want to trade Michael Taylor or Kyle Drabek. I know, off-season trades are different, but even top prospects are far from sure things.

[zambonir]

Trade deadline acquisition aren't sure things either (both individually or in terms of how they impact the team's chance of actually winning it all).

With controllable players it is two different considerations of course. What will they do to help this season, and what will they do to help future teams win in future seasons. The Phillies have such a big cushion this year that they have the luxury of deciding whether they're after a rental and short-term help or something more. What they don't need is someone (or multiple someones) to help them make it through a pennant race, like they did in 2022.

The worst version of this current team - that is, these last six weeks - is still playing at a 93-win pace, which would still be better overall than either of the last two teams.

[VoteForKalas]

Thoughts about Tanner Scott from the Marlins?

29, LH reliever, decent experience, decent numbers last season and first half of this season. Should be cheap.

Joins Alvarado, Strahm & Soto from that side to go with Hoffman, Kerkering, SA and possibly Turnbull from the right.

[dicemen99]

Thoughts about Tanner Scott from the Marlins?

29, LH reliever, decent experience, decent numbers last season and first half of this season. Should be cheap.

Joins Alvarado, Strahm & Soto from that side to go with Hoffman, Kerkering, SA and possibly Turnbull from the right.

Won't be cheap and he walks an awful lot of batters. Would give @LoneStarPhan an absolute heart attack.

Is also the guy who could get hot at the right time and help win a WS. All he needs is a couple of week stretch where he doesn't put every other guy on base.

But couldn't we just get the same from a guy like Lucas Erceg who probably would cost a lot less?

[zambonir]

I don't think he'd be that cheap. A rental yeah, but much younger and more dominant than, for instance, Robertson 2022.

I'm still not fully convinced they have to make the bullpen move with Soto, SA, and yes, probably Turnbull in the mix. As well as Sanchez in the NLDS (and then if they get to the WS a whole mess of starters, by the last two games). I'm just not sure who I have more confidence in right now. Soto or SA (probably Soto but that's also just based on last weekend's meaningless outings).

If you're gonna do it, probably does makes sense to get someone who is pretty plainly among the best 3 or 4 options rather than someone who may not may not be better than the current #5 or 6. But that also ends up being an overpay if you get bounced early or your shiny new toy pitches like Alvarado or Kimbrel in that one key inning.

The other consideration is, which possible batters in which possible innings are you acquiring someone to match up with? Off the top of my head, that might mean a LHP more than a RHP especially since Strahm is a more well-rounded weapon. Obviously that person - particularly if it's Soto - can't just do that.

[zambonir]

Bowden changes more than the weather. I was just reading where he said the Phillies have had talks with Baltimore about Cedric Mullins. Here he says they are under very little pressure to do anything, maybe they get a LF, doesn't mention his previous report that they are prioritizing CF while still saying it could happen. Also mentions not once, but twice, that Chisholm might not be a good fit in the Phillies (or Yankees) clubhouse, not sure what that is about. (I personally just don't think he fits as a player. He'll probably wind up playing 2B somewhere.)

MLB front offices under the most pressure — and the least — this trade deadline

[Austinfan]

He is right that Dombrowski can take his time, he already has the top team in baseball, the only serious injury should be back by the end of August (Turnbull), JT in a week, Ranger and Wheeler will miss one start.

So he has no urgency to overpay, he can wait until the music stops and a GM will take a bargain payment to dump a rental.

[julio]

So he has no urgency to overpay, he can wait until the music stops and a GM will take a bargain payment to dump a rental.

Or...gasp!... DD could just stand pat. He doesn't need to make a deadline deal.

Yeah, I know; I'm a heretic.

[zambonir]

Or...gasp!... DD could just stand pat. He doesn't need to make a deadline deal.

I certainly think he does have to make one of some kind. They are not letting Marsh play against LHP and I'm not starting Weston Wilson or Cristian Pache against Atlanta's LHPs (even if Pache in LF worked last year). And I'd still like to see a LHB off the bench too. (though I might settle for Clemens).

The push for another reliever seems less compelling to me, and Alvarado blowing a save doesn't necessarily change that in my book. You can upgrade, you can add depth, and anyone can still do that on the wrong night. Maybe Seranthony is still this year's Josh Sborz.

[allentown]

I agree. Everyone wants us to get another OF, but Weston Wilson is doing just fine.

[Aquapong]

Another reliable bp arm is a must imo.

[Austinfan]

And Stevenson keeps hitting, I think he should get a look over Pache, switch hitter who provides similar defense and can't be worse at the plate.

We'll see if Wilson is for real, but just b/c Dahl came up short doesn't mean you automatically dismiss AAA performance. That's why you self scout.

[VoteForKalas]

I think he does and knows that we need to win a ring in this 2-3 year window while Harper, Wheeler, Turner, Nola et al. are still performing and before decisions need to be made on breaking this core up.

If he does nothing to help this team at the deadline, he better pray everything goes right, no one gets injured and we win it all. Otherwise, he will be criticized heavily and rightfully so. No half measures, do whatever is necessary to win.

If it happens, the team goes down in Phillies history as legends. If it doesn't happen, at least they all know they gave it their all.

[Austinfan]

There is no guarantee when you go "all in" that you'll win, but bleeding young assets and the talent and cap room they provide does guarantee the window will close shut at some point.

Even if Alvarado is a lost cause this season, they still have Strahm, Kerkering and Hoffman, that's a pretty good 7th inning core. They could use more bullpen depth, but what team doesn't need that?

In the field, they have a couple weeks to watch Wilson and see if his hot streak was a fluke or he's figured something out and is a power RH bat who can play multiple positions, which makes him more valuable than say Pham. Castallenos seems to be past his funk, still not worth his contract, but if he's a .800 OPS hitter with subpar defense, not that easy to upgrade.

You don't overpay b/c you can roll this team out for two more years with similar odds of success, and by 2027, your top prospects should be arriving. And they could extend the window indefinitely (Painter, Crawford, Miller, Tait, Caba).

[zambonir]

Well, he certainly has in the current two-game sample. And that's why he's here, to audition. But I'm not sure i'm buying him as a long-term answer any more than Cave was last October (when Wilson also couldn't even make the roster) or Dahl was a few months ago, and I doubt the Phillies are either (I.e. they have done their "self-scouting" already, and of Marsh's ability to hit LHP and Rojas too, which is why they aren't ruling out anything). Don't forget he's also not primarily been an OF in his career.

They should definitely replace Pache too, whether that's with a pure LH power bench bat or with Stevenson or Clemen. Or even just keeping Wilson around if they're not going to have a LHB (which would otherwise be Marsh on days he doesn't start).

[Austinfan]

With role players "long-term" is this season.
I think Dombrowski will make a couple moves, I just don't see him selling the farm for anyone.

[zambonir]

Yeah by long-term I mean three months vs. three weeks, not next year. We've already seen Cave, Clemens, Dahl and even Sosa fail as starters for longer than a month. Some not even that long.

I think Dombrowski will happily "sell the farm" if it's the right deal and a fair deal, I just doubt that will exist for the likes of Robert or Miller. It gets a little more interesting with the OFs who have some control. Any pure rental, especially a reliever, won't cost that much.

[Austinfan]

Has Dombrowski traded a top prospect since he's been running the Phillies?
I think he can see the need to rebuild the farm system so he can trade from excess.
But that's still 2 years away.

Now once you get past the top 5 or so, the ones with the biggest upsides (i.e. why I wouldn't trade Tait, for example), everyone else is available. Phillies have a set lineup for the most part, so they don't need to keep prospects with 1-2 WAR upsides to fill out the lineup, but if they think Crawford is going to emerge in two years as a ML CF with speed, power and average, not only do you not want to trade him, but he'll give you the option of trading Rojas down the line.

[zambonir]

Probably no more than three or four GMs in baseball have ever traded a top prospect (especially if we're defining that as Top 3 not Top 5 as seems to be the current tier with the Phillies) in the past few years or even decade-plus, and only then for MVP-caliber rentals or controllable stars. Even then the package is never quite as big as you think it's going to be, especially if the player also makes a lot of money.

Whatever Robert's pluses or minuses the fact that you would have him for three years after this one and he would be an everyday player makes it perfectly reasonable to include Crawford or Rojas in the deal. But you don't do that for Lane Thomas, a platoon player you only get for one more year. Or any relief pitcher (one of the reasons Mason Miller's price will be high is it's still possible he'll start, which also gives the A's less reason to trade him this soon).

[allentown]

We'll see if Wilson is for real, but just b/c Dahl came up short doesn't mean you automatically dismiss AAA performance. That's why you self scout.

Any late addition can come up small in the playoffs, or upset the balance/cohesion of a team, which is playing great but 'needs to be improved' to earn the vital post-season wins within the window of opportunity. Our last 100+ win team added Pence to strengthen the offense for playoffs -- making the playoffs never in doubt. He bombed totally in playoffs, after playing well during regular season post-trade-deadline time. It happens. Any player can slump at any time. That 100+ win team had a very quick exit from playoffs. It was a far stronger team than the 2008 WC team. Up until 2012, the team was strengthened each league and performed progressively worse in playoffs each year. The 2008 team had some young, home-grown players and dumpster-dive salvages, but it played above its level of talent. It was a magical combination and team spirit. Easy to unwittingly mess with that.