2024 Trade Deadline Speculation

[zambonir]

Yeah it was always rather puzzling and even disappointing that they didn't get him in the first place especially given he wound up getting $5 million less than Whit, but presumably he wanted to start. He does have a little bit of a rep and I seem to recall him even being cranky about getting benched against RHP for the Dbacks against us. But he's solid and I assume would happily accept any role for a team like the Phillies. His "rep" also seems like a good fit on this team tbh.

[ahb]

Lane Thomas, please. Career .896 OPS vs lefties. Perfect platoon partner for Marsh.

[zambonir]

He's a good one. Has a year of control so will cost more, but worth it. Pham quite a bit better from the other side which wouldn't have everyday value but might have playoff value (like, you could hit him for Rojas late in the game against RHP). Thomas presumably a little better defensively just based on age but they can both stand in CF if necessary.

Gelb mentions Canha (rental), Taylor Ward (also controlled) and Arozorena (controlled, you might be buying low and exploiting Tampa's budget, proven playoff guy).

These are all guys that shouldn't cost them one of the top 3 names, but they won't cost nothing. Rentals be cheaper obviously. Non-rentals also provide leeway to move on from the current RF if that's in their thinking.

[miker]

If we can't get Robert (if he is even a possibility) then Thomas would be my go-to.

[phillychuck]

With Robert's injury issues I'd take Thomas ahead of him, too. I don't think we are thinking in that direction, though, in the front office based on leaks to the press.

[andyb]

Are people willing to consider dealing Miller or Painter for Thomas? My guess is the Nats would want more than Crawford.

[phillychuck]

Nope. I think Thomas is a great fit, but not at that price.

[andyb]

The extra year of control will push the price higher.

[bigegypt0417]

let them push the price as high as they want...Thomas is 28 with one season that was pretty good.

I hate this time of the year...it's when every trade seems like any middling player is worth top prospects.

[Matt_Winkelman]

I don't think the expected price for Thomas is expected to be a top prospect. I suspect Cabrera or Aldegheri would be a headliner here as the players the Phillies would be looking to move and be of interest to other teams.

[andyb]

Nats just got their number 6 prospect (who was ranked 2nd in the Royals system) plus a high comp pick for Hunter Harvey who seems less valuable than Thomas. He has one more year of control left also, but is a lesser player.

Maybe it is not Miller or Painter, but something like Crawford plus an Aldegheri or Cabrera seems pretty likely as the asking price.

[dicemen99]

Nats just got their number 6 prospect (who was ranked 2nd in the Royals system) plus a high comp pick for Hunter Harvey who seems less valuable than Thomas. He has one more year of control left also, but is a lesser player.

Maybe it is not Miller or Painter, but something like Crawford plus an Aldegheri or Cabrera seems pretty likely as the asking price.

Agreed. I think people on here are vastly underestimating the cost in prospects it will take for the guys that are being bandied about on here.

Check out the recent FanGraphs article about relievers on the market. Most of them profiling like Seranthony or Soto and the expected return for a guy like that is a 40+ or 45FV prospect.

A 40+ or 45FV prospect is a Crawford, Tait , probably Abel now. Miller has probably moved to 50+ but last year was 45. Alegh, Cabrera, Klassen - these guys are not going to bring you much return unless you get very lucky.

[Austinfan]

I'd be reluctant to move a top prospect with real upside, problem is that most Phillie prospects are more upside than ML ready types.

Which is why I'd prefer a rental, team just has to get through a couple seasons, then shed Walker and Castellanos contracts and have some flexibility.

Wary of an overpay for a good but not special player under team control if it costs prospects with high ceilings - because those are the prospects this team needs, and you don't know which ones will reach that ceiling.

[dicemen99]

I'd be reluctant to move a top prospect with real upside, problem is that most Phillie prospects are more upside than ML ready types.

Which is why I'd prefer a rental, team just has to get through a couple seasons, then shed Walker and Castellanos contracts and have some flexibility.

Wary of an overpay for a good but not special player under team control if it costs prospects with high ceilings - because those are the prospects this team needs, and you don't know which ones will reach that ceiling.

I'm kind of in the opposite camp. It is more likely than not that NONE of them reach their ceilings. Even Miller.

Is anybody telling me that we have a Zack Wheeler, Bryce Harper or Trea Turner in the system? Maybe, Painter - but he's on the shelf and we have no idea how he comes back. Do we even have a Schwarber in the system? I highly doubt it.

People lament about losing players like Mead, O'Hoppe, or Brown - players like this are readily available for the Phillies. We are not a small market team. Of course, we don't want to get nothing in return for them - but that hasn't been the case under Dombrowski.

In the Phillies position, we should use our prospects for good ML return if it is timely and available. I'm not sure it is this year, but if it is we shouldn't worry about losing a guy like Crawford or Tait or Abel or Klassen.

[zambonir]

The extra year of control has value but Thomas is still a platoon player, and only the really great players or ones with even more control get you a top prospect (I mean, look at the guy they need to platoon him with, for instance)

Unless we think Bowden really has a great Phillies front office source I wouldn't say there have been leaks. And if there have, that might be the Phillies putting out red herrings. Acting like you'd rather have a center fielder is one way to negotiate for a LF.

Robert is kind of an imperfect combination of flaws (health, resembles our current RF in approach) and high asking price (due to the years of control).

[zambonir]

if it is we shouldn't worry about losing a guy like Crawford or Tait or Abel or Klassen.

That's true in my book but only because two of those guys have already seen their stock drop (and you didn't even put McGarry in there for obvious reasons).

I'd be just as happy with Pham as Thomas if it meant a lower price. At this point you are not really trying to improve the team in a profound way, you are just trying to find a guy who can start against certain post-season starters, and PH while being able to stay in the game. They both can do that. Maybe Thomas is worth more given his age as well as control. Whether he's worth Crawford depends whether Crawford actually is a more elite prospect now (i.e. closer to O'Hoppe than Brown, at the time)

[dicemen99]

Yes. There's three guys on there I missed - Painter, Miller, and Caba.

Painter is hurt so we would never extract max value from him - so basically he's untouchable.

Miller and Caba - well, they may be at max value or they may not. Either way, I'd have to think about them, but if I was sold on getting a guy who just helped - I still might make the deal because of where we are.

Is Miller ever going to be as good as Castellanos? I doubt it. But he could. He's not going to be a superstar though.
Is Caba ever going to be as good as Bryson Stott? I doubt it. Same thing.

Anybody else wouldn't even require a thought to get somebody who just helped out for this year. Odds are none will ever make it to the level of a Castellanos and Stott.

And I threw Stott out there just at present level of play (this year). Stott is really not a great comparison, but I didn't have anyone else on the Phils. Maybe Sosa would be a better comparison. It would be a great result for Caba to reach the level of a Sosa.

[Austinfan]

I would not want to move Miller, Caba, Painter or Tait in a package unless I'm getting a controlled at a reasonable price 3-4 WAR starter.

Thomas for example, 4.9 WAR last 2.5 seasons or 2 WAR starter.
Robert one big season last year, but 30% K rate says he's not going to age well
Pham 3.7 WAR over last 4 seasons (about 3 full seasons).

They might be good in a platoon, and an upgrade over Castellanos, but they're not "plug and play" starters.
I'd go Thomas or Pham depending on the deal, but I'm not overpaying for a role player.

[bigegypt0417]

I don't think it's valuable to judge based on system rankings...he isn't a top 100 prospect that I can find while Crawford is.

The competitive pick is the real asset.

[andyb]

I don't think it's valuable to judge based on system rankings...he isn't a top 100 prospect that I can find while Crawford is.

The competitive pick is the real asset.

Wallace was not top 100 last year but would have had a decent shot at the back end after this season (777 OPS in AA, still 22, decent defense at 3B). He is a notch below Crawford now, but the 39th pick probably adds enough value to be as good as Crawford alone.

And Thomas is simply better than Harvey. Maybe the Nats will not get what I am suggesting they are asking for, but to expect we could get him for someone like Aldegheri or Cabrera that would rank behind Wallace is just wishful thinking.