2024 Trade Deadline Speculation

[Austinfan]

Pence and Oswalt are good examples where "more is not more."

[zambonir]

But if the chemistry was sacrosanct Merrifield would still be here. He stunk, but the team was winning.

The 2011 team didn't have a long enough post-season to where we can even say Pence had a bad one. He went 2-5 with two RBIs in Game 1 before tapering off and then of course the entire offense did nothing in Game 5.

In the end neither Weston Wilson nor Lane Thomas is going to be the difference for the Phillies anymore than Jake Cave or the lack of a righty bat really mattered when Harper, Turner, Casty and Bohm weren't hitting. But it's still a legit need for this line-up.

[ahb]

Anyone else find it weird that in the draft thread, AF defends the Phillies bad draft by arguing that very few prospects ever make a difference so the draft doesn't matter. Then here he argues that we should not trade prospect for an immediate upgrade because prospects are too important to the long-term success of the team?

I'm not arguing that we should cut the farm system to go all-in this year. Just pointing out how logically inconsistent AF's arguments are (which happens when you're trying to push an agenda rather than arguing in good faith).

[Austinfan]

Most picks don't matter in terms of being low probability events.
But once you hit and you find a legitimate prospect, now you have a lot more information, the misses don't matter.

The fact that top prospects are hard to find in the draft and LA means you should be reluctant to trade them, even though you'll miss with even half this group, the ones that hit provide not just talent but large cap savings that allow you to afford FAs.

Doesn't mean you don't ever trade them, but you want an "offer you can't refuse," not "apres moi, le deluge."

[ahb]

You mean like the 27th pick in last year’s draft?

[ahb]

Good thing the Phillies didn’t reach and make a bad pick because draft picks don’t matter in 2023. Because they took a better player, they now have a top prospect who has a lot of value.

In fact, their top three prospects are all recent first round picks.

If they followed your draft picks don’t matter so let’s just reach for inferior players strategy, they’d have exactly zero premium prospects to either keep or offer in trade.

In fact, I’d say you are 100% wrong about all of this. You undervalue draft picks and overvalue prospects. The smartest strategy is to find value by taking players in the draft who fall further than they should (as the Phillies did last year) and to be willing to trade them when their value is high for a strong return (for example, trading Abel at last year’s deadline).

The dumbest strategy is the AF strategy. Reach in the draft fir players that are unlikely to create commensurate value as prospects and then refuse to ever trade a prospect and, instead, watch as they lose much of their vslue.

[andyb]

The goal is really to accumulate more prospects so you can trade them if you need to.

[allentown]

The dumbest strategy is the AF strategy. Reach in the draft fir players that are unlikely to create commensurate value as prospects and then refuse to ever trade a prospect and, instead, watch as they lose much of their value.

The first and second round picks typically are the huge part of the team's draft value. That's why such a high fraction of bonus value goes to those guys. Mess up your first pick or lose too many 2nd-round picks from FA signings and the farm will suffer greatly, as will the major league team down the road. Phillies have gotten value midway through the top 10 rounds (Howard, Hoskins) and even late (Hoppe). When the Phillies were bad, and really bad on the farm, it was the result of disastrous first round picks and indifference toward international.

The Phillies first two picks in this year's draft are exactly the sort of H.S. OF reaches who have destroyed many of their past drafts.

The Phillies do seem to have switched to AF's approach on acquiring amateur pitching projects. International spending on pitching has been pitiful and this year no pitchers until round 8 and then almost all pitching for rest of draft and UDFA. Not sure why this approach was adopted now, as the limit on minor league players in U.S. makes this approach iffier than it was before the minors were shrunk.

[phillychuck]

The Phillies first two picks in this year's draft are exactly the sort of H.S. OF reaches who have destroyed many of their past drafts.

Close, but not exactly. Nori, though old, is speedy but has an advanced hit tool, which is unlike the "track athlete" types that the Phils drafted before. Burkholder is a reasonable pick in round 2, good tools and good performance, performance that was lacking in the earlier toolsy guys. Scouts seem to think he has minor swing flaws (long with a late load, no help from his lower body) that the Phils are not particularly adept at fixing. But not Randolph-bad.

There really weren't any great HS pitchers available at this point, either. Joey Oakie and Johnny King were the only HS arms that were drafted in the next 30 picks. Some decent college arms, mostly 4-yr juniors, were still on the board, but college starters seem to be lower in value to Barber (maybe the high incidence of TJ surgery with over-use?).

These picks will look worse if Crawford succeeds, too, as they will be blocked for a decade in CF and will have to be traded or play a corner where their best tool, speed, is devalued.

I'm not excited. Best case scenario is Nori is really good and fell because of his age, and the Phils rolling the dice on him turns out to be a good "against the current" gamble.

[zambonir]

I just have a hard time getting worked up about 27th picks. Not the same as when your #10 (Randolph) is a complete bust and your #8 (Haseley) is already out of baseball. The odds of anyone making it that late in the first round or at all out of the second round are long which is why you you also see more risk and reaching (something the Phillies also did last year, and seemed to have gotten right). The ghosts of past toolsy OFs are about as relevant to this front office as the ghosts of '64 are to the current playoff format. And the Larry Greene draft was destroyed before it began because the Phillies didn't even have a first-round pick (and yet they still got Quinn, Adam Morgan and Asche). Ditto 2012 when they took two pitchers in the comp round (and really wound up with nothing in other rounds).

[zambonir]

It's Nightengale but he says the Phillies are out on Chisholm Pham and Rooker. Pham always seemed like the only fit there but he won't want to be a bench player, which pretty much the case when you are the short side of platoon and the other two starting outfielders are also right-handed.

MLB trade rumors: Phillies are out on big name outfielders, could target closer

[Austinfan]

Sometimes a draft just rolls that way, if you're going BPA on your board (not the media board) you'll end up with a draft that leaves your fans dissatisfied.

I think hitters are easier to scout, and rarely make it past the first five rounds, O'Hoppe the outlier.
Pitchers have more variance, can a starter add velo moving to the pen, can a new grip remake a pitcher.

[dicemen99]

One more high-leverage reliever is needed. The playoffs are a different animal and tight games are likely to require more than 9 outs from the pen.

Gelb hit the nail on the head with Alvarado's use - I think that has been consistent over the past couple of years, he will be used differently in the postseason in high-leverage situations to face LHs whenever that may be. I don't think he needs to be fixed - he is best used this way. He can get out top LHBs, but he is mediocre against righties.

Hoffman has been great this year, but the Phils haven't handed the 9th to him. Of note, he traditionally has been stronger in the first half than in the second half; anecdotally, this is what I recall about him last year (I may be misremembering). I also have my concerns about him facing the type of high-powered lineups you see in the playoffs late in the game - he hasn't done this. Last year the Phillies let him do it once - and he blew the save in the 8th against the Braves. That was the last time he was put in that type of position last year. Against the D-Backs he was coming in in the 4th, 5th & 6th innings.

Strahm has always been more successful against RHB and that split is exaggerated this year. We definitely need another top-of-the-line guy to get lefties out.

If I were Dombrowski I would not hesitate to give up a top guy(s) not named Painter (or maybe Miller) to get a top-of-the-line reliever. Then roll with him, the three above, and then Soto and whoever is hot between Kerkering and Seranthony can be your one or two out guys to close out an inning if needed R on R or L on L. In the playoffs, I am not trusting any of them to go much more than the minimum allowed.

Closing out games in the playoffs is how you win a World Series.

[zambonir]

Closing out games in the playoffs is how you win a World Series.

I just don't know if I believe that. Very few capital C closers have actually clinched a World Series-winning game over the past 15 years. The 2017 Astros benched Giles for almost the entire post-season. The guy who did it last year had a 5.50 ERA while LeClerc and Chapman were nowhere to be seen (though Chapman was their 8th inning guy). And like Gelb said Ranger has pitched a post-season 9th more recently than Alvarado. In the end how you win a WS still has more to do with outplaying the other team in all the other areas often enough that late-inning relief only counts occasionally. With better hitting and starting pitching (and managing) last year the Phillies would have overcome Kimbrel in the NLCS. And the closer Arizona traded for was good until he wasn't, because that's October relief pitching.

All of which is to say I would not pay top dollar for a sure thing relief arm because a sure thing relief arm doesn't exist, especially if you don't really need it for the next two months either. Yeah they still probably need another arm. But I still include Alvarado in the top group, especially to get out lefties where he's still #1 (and Strahm and Soto are both good enough at it, the issue with Soto and Alvarado is more the RHBs). The need for that arm (and how good he is) depends much more on what they really think of Soto, Kerkering and even Turnbull (if not Ruiz and Seranthony and how the starters might be deployed. ).

I don't think Scott is out of the Phillies' price range though.

[HopeSpringsEternal]

I just don't know if I believe that. Very few capital C closers have actually clinched a World Series-winning game over the past 15 years.

Expanding the time span a bit leads to Brad Lidge in 2008.

But I agree with the overall premise - I too would like to see Tanner Scott added to our stable of late-inning relievers.

[zambonir]

I was actually going to say, "since Lidge and Mariano" but I assume there were a couple since them anyway.

[Austinfan]

I go back to Tug.

[zambonir]

You mean Tug proves you don't need a good closer to win the World Series?

[HopeSpringsEternal]

I was going to say something like that! Tug provided some adventurous rides through the late innings!

[Austinfan]

We'll just try to forget "Wild Thing."