There are serious doubts about whether Crawford will develop the power to be a good starting CF. And without some power it will be hard to get a 350+ OBP. That is part of Stott's problem now. The jury is still very much out on Crawford as it is with most prospects. Right now Rojas has very little power also. He chases pitches out of the zone and can't do much with pitches in the zone. Crawford has a better hit tool foundation than Rojas, but changing his swing to add power could subtract from other aspects of his game.
If we want a difference maker, that requires trading top prospects. The fantasy that we can hold onto them all and still make a big move is just that - fantasy. Miller and Painter should clearly be untouchable, since they can be foundational players if they work out, and the evidence thus far for working out is pretty good.
I can understand the thought that Crawford is in that same class, but we do have plenty of fairly high ceiling CF prospects, and the same goes for Caba at SS as well (including Miller).
Tell it to Richie Ashburn.
The reason most hitters don't have high OBP is lack of patience and inability to make contact.
Stott could have a high walk rate if he wanted to, he has the bat control to force deep counts (though not this season, he's really in a funk right now), he's just a "hit first" guy.
A lot of Phillies hitters are too eager and chase balls out of the zone - if you just stop doing that and accept the Umpire will occasionally screw you (but it tends to even out) - you can run deep counts and walk a lot without hurting you as a hitter. Harper is a good example.
Power makes a pitcher more careful, but so does the ability to foul off strikes you can't hit for high BABIP, it's an art but some hitters can do it - and if you force a pitcher into deep counts, they miss eventually.
Geez, not everyone is a Hall of Famer. Not everyone can be Joe Morgan either (Jimmy Rollins was pretty good as is).
Hitting for power and hitting for discipline are two very different things. It is what makes Bryce Harper great and Nick Castellanos merely average. It is not as if Nick is not trying as your comments imply, it is just hard to be good at both
It will be hard for Crawford too. The comments on this thread are about valuing Crawford as a prospect, not really whether he has a chance to make it. His evaluation now lacks power. That limits his trade value somewhat. He is still a valuable trade piece, just nowhere near as valuable as you imply. Robert is not my favorite trade target, but Crawford as the main piece coming back is probably a reasonable deal.
I don't think Crawford is untouchable if you're trading for a controllable CF. Nor Rojas for that matter. I just don't know that Robert is the guy, or if there's anyone else (including a full-time LF who would push Marsh to CF) at that level available. Those tend to be off-season deals.
Painter's just really good. There's no reason to think he won't make it back unless he gets hurt again. He's neither Abel nor Mark Appel, yet. If he disappoints he's still probably a ML pitcher.
Now, he might still get traded if the Phillies' rotation is set for several years to come. That would mean extending Ranger and not only keeping but actually pitching Walker. But since neither neither of those two things are certain, he should still be untouchable in addition to the fact that you'd be selling low.
My problem with Robert is his 34% K rate combined with a salary jump to $20M I think next year.
So you're giving away major assets to a player who might have peaked. Steady increase in K rate last three seasons, from 20% to 34% suggests he's being exposed - as does his .227 BA with .291 BABIP.
Now maybe he fell in love with the HR and can be taught to rein it in, but that's a big gamble.
Jim Bowden floats a trade with the White Sox for Crochet and Robert for Crawford, Abel, Caba, Aldegheri and I would imagine a lesser prospect or two. That would be intriguing. Crochet would be a luxury, but a good one to have. If the Phillies did that, they could trade Sanchez in the offseason while his value is high to get back some prospects.
I might prefer the Randy Arozarena rumors. Mostly a LF defensively at this point and not a great one. Slightly down offensive year but 964 OPS in the last 28 days. Right-handed so would platoon with Marsh in LF and good enough offensively that he could play LF with Marsh in CF against right-handed pitching. $8.1 million salary with 2 years of arbitration left and Tampa not really wanting to pay $10+ million a year for him.
Figure the prospect cost for him would be mid-level. Yes that probably means someone like Klassen or Aldegheri. Same range as Winker but more years of control.
Never said I liked Robert as a fit at all. I am much more into fixing LF and reserving the option of moving Marsh to CF more if Rojas does not hit (and keeping either Rojas or Pache around for defense).
Randy A is a good one for something more than just a platoon bat, especially since Tampa wants to unload the future $. There's also Mark Canha as a rental alternative to Thomas.
And Finnegan, like Thomas, comes with a year of control. So those two together would probably be pretty costly too.
Wonder what will happen to Pache.
I really don't think they are in on the starting pitchers. But choosing Walker over Eflin still hurts. Last year they were pretty equal and I really did think Zach would end up getting hurt again. But hard to imagine Walker winning that race over the three years (and losing it even more in the fourth).
I will say that it's kind of interesting that they probably want to go to a six-man on August 2 (the West Coast trip) but don't actually have six pitchers. In the Inquirer today Lauber said Walker is still a "few weeks" away and Turnbull looking at end of August.
So, Crochet doesn't have a no-trade clause, so he's using a possible innings limit to imply he wouldn't be that eager to join a contender and or go back to the bullpen. A little different from Spencer Turnbull. I don't blame him if he doesn't want to push it (he's already at 111 after pitching just 12 in '22 and '23 combined) but not sure a new contract is a reason to push it either (even if the argument is it insulates him from another injury).
Full trade, per ESPN sources:
— Jeff Passan ( @JeffPassan ) July 26, 2024
Seattle Mariners receive: outfielder Randy Arozarena
Tampa Bay Rays receive: outfielder Aidan Smith, right-hander Brody Hopkins and a player to be named last.
12 and 22 prospects in Seattle's system.
Full deal:
— Jeff Passan ( @JeffPassan ) July 26, 2024
Arizona Diamondbacks receive: left-handed reliever A.J. Puk.
Miami Marlins receive: CIF Deyvison De Los Santos and CF Andrew Pintar.
Deal is done. Diamondbacks get the bullpen arm they've been seeking.
And trade season is officially on.
De Lo Santos becomes the Marlins #4 prospect. Pintar #19
That seems like a pretty low price for Randy, but just goes to show you that's not what the Phillies are looking for. We've already heard that Pham might not be a good fit due to lack of playing time so could be a similar situation here.
And he was Nick-like for much of this season. In his case the control wasn't necessarily a plus.
Mariners are actually the team we think the Phillies are when things don't look good. Blew a nine game lead.