2024 Trade Deadline Speculation

[Austinfan]

My problem with Robert is his 34% K rate combined with a salary jump to $20M I think next year.

So you're giving away major assets to a player who might have peaked. Steady increase in K rate last three seasons, from 20% to 34% suggests he's being exposed - as does his .227 BA with .291 BABIP.

Now maybe he fell in love with the HR and can be taught to rein it in, but that's a big gamble.

[xogfog]

Jim Bowden floats a trade with the White Sox for Crochet and Robert for Crawford, Abel, Caba, Aldegheri and I would imagine a lesser prospect or two. That would be intriguing. Crochet would be a luxury, but a good one to have. If the Phillies did that, they could trade Sanchez in the offseason while his value is high to get back some prospects.

[andyb]

I might prefer the Randy Arozarena rumors. Mostly a LF defensively at this point and not a great one. Slightly down offensive year but 964 OPS in the last 28 days. Right-handed so would platoon with Marsh in LF and good enough offensively that he could play LF with Marsh in CF against right-handed pitching. $8.1 million salary with 2 years of arbitration left and Tampa not really wanting to pay $10+ million a year for him.

Figure the prospect cost for him would be mid-level. Yes that probably means someone like Klassen or Aldegheri. Same range as Winker but more years of control.

Never said I liked Robert as a fit at all. I am much more into fixing LF and reserving the option of moving Marsh to CF more if Rojas does not hit (and keeping either Rojas or Pache around for defense).

[zambonir]

Randy A is a good one for something more than just a platoon bat, especially since Tampa wants to unload the future $. There's also Mark Canha as a rental alternative to Thomas.

And Finnegan, like Thomas, comes with a year of control. So those two together would probably be pretty costly too.

Wonder what will happen to Pache.

[andyb]

Canha should be really cheap I guess. Definitely on the down side of his career. He could almost be free prospect-wise if a team pays him the rest of the year. $11.5 million deal which is more than his prospect value at this point.

[Aquapong]

Damn Mason Miller to the DL with a broken hand. I don’t know if the A’s would’ve gotten a package big enough for him, but that takes a big chip off the table.

[owaistabish]

Randy A and a reunion with Zach Efflin perhaps? Thoughts?

[zambonir]

I really don't think they are in on the starting pitchers. But choosing Walker over Eflin still hurts. Last year they were pretty equal and I really did think Zach would end up getting hurt again. But hard to imagine Walker winning that race over the three years (and losing it even more in the fourth).

I will say that it's kind of interesting that they probably want to go to a six-man on August 2 (the West Coast trip) but don't actually have six pitchers. In the Inquirer today Lauber said Walker is still a "few weeks" away and Turnbull looking at end of August.

[zambonir]

So, Crochet doesn't have a no-trade clause, so he's using a possible innings limit to imply he wouldn't be that eager to join a contender and or go back to the bullpen. A little different from Spencer Turnbull. I don't blame him if he doesn't want to push it (he's already at 111 after pitching just 12 in '22 and '23 combined) but not sure a new contract is a reason to push it either (even if the argument is it insulates him from another injury).

Sources: Trade-target Crochet wants new deal

[bkox]

Full trade, per ESPN sources:

Seattle Mariners receive: outfielder Randy Arozarena

Tampa Bay Rays receive: outfielder Aidan Smith, right-hander Brody Hopkins and a player to be named last.

— Jeff Passan ( @JeffPassan ) July 26, 2024

12 and 22 prospects in Seattle's system.

Full deal:

Arizona Diamondbacks receive: left-handed reliever A.J. Puk.

Miami Marlins receive: CIF Deyvison De Los Santos and CF Andrew Pintar.

Deal is done. Diamondbacks get the bullpen arm they've been seeking.

And trade season is officially on.

— Jeff Passan ( @JeffPassan ) July 26, 2024

De Lo Santos becomes the Marlins #4 prospect. Pintar #19

[BaseballCat]

I might have done a similar first trade, but would never give up that much for Puk. Wow

[phillychuck]

Should have matched for Arozarena.

[zambonir]

That seems like a pretty low price for Randy, but just goes to show you that's not what the Phillies are looking for. We've already heard that Pham might not be a good fit due to lack of playing time so could be a similar situation here.

And he was Nick-like for much of this season. In his case the control wasn't necessarily a plus.

Mariners are actually the team we think the Phillies are when things don't look good. Blew a nine game lead.

[BostonRoss]

Matching doesn’t necessarily get you anything; the Rays could choose either of two equal offers and might well overvalue the Mariners’ package or not prefer the Phillies’. The question is whether the Phillies should have offered more.

[zambonir]

Question is whether they offered anything

[zambonir]

@Matt_Winkelman's Twitter is a good read on the trade

[Matt_Winkelman]

For those that don't want to wade through the quagmire.

• Rays have weird evaluations, and likely have both prospects as fringe top 100 prospects
• Various public rankings are absolute garbage
• The pitcher in particular has some traits (athleticism, new to full time pitching, riding fastball, low release point) that teams like the Rays really value, there isn't really a guy with that collection of traits in the Phillies system
• Rays prefer to get these pre-breakout guys from the low minors who are far away from 40 man implications, the Phillies would prefer to trade from their guys in the mid to high minors who have 40 man implications
• Phillies probably could have beat the deal, but is that cost (I estimated Tait + Klassen + mystery PTBNL, and maybe the Rays don't like those particular guys) worth what the Phillies would actually need from Arozarena

I believe the Phillies had interest, but that price is more than what I believe the Phillies have been shopping for and want.

[andyb]

So Mark Canha might actually fit the OF portion of what they want? Or someone with a similar lesser prospect price?

[Matt_Winkelman]

Canha feels like the fall back of nothing else happening. I think a Ward+Estevez or Thomas+Finnegan deal is the most likely to me, or one of those OF and then a RP from elsewhere. I think they are asking around and keeping their eyes and ears open, but they want things that fit their needs at prices they want to pay.

[phillychuck]

they want things that fit their needs at prices they want to pay.

Don't we all?