2024 MLB (Rule 4) Draft Discussion

[andyb]

There have definitely been some studies that have shown much less risk in college pitchers than HS pitchers who essentially have 3 more years to get hurt to catch up with the college players. In terms of success vs draft position there are a fair number of HS pitchers with lots of WAR but the average is low because of the failure risk.

What has changed in the past 5-10 years though is that these HS pitchers are dropping in the draft. Nobody wants the risk. A guy like Schmidt this year (or Painter and Abel) would all have been top 10 picks a decade or two ago. Now they aren't. So we need more data on drafting a HS pitcher in the 20-30 range because they might still have the high ceiling of former top 10 picks, but the drop in draft position compensates for the risk.

FWIW I think Barber wants that risk which is why he likes these HS pitchers who drop in the draft. He embraced risk last year with Miller who was downgraded because of his older age and injury. The injury concerns alone probably dropped him 10 spots and those are no longer present this year (even if we still need to see if his older age is helping him advance quickly through the low minors). For the Phillies to get a high ceiling player at 27 they need to embrace the risk. Sometimes it works (Cole Hamels). Sometimes it doesn't (Joe Savery).

[fish]

So, trade Painter?

Well, now we can't because I've bonded lol. But it's entirely possible his peak value was in December 2022...same as Abel. When you have a guy with legitimate ace upside I don't think there is a franchise out there that can afford to trade that away. Abel on the other hand...

The reality is that the success of a draft pick isn't limited to how he does in the big leagues, it's also what prospect value you can build up in him to trade him for a big leaguer, and then being able to make those decisions without emotions getting in the way of overvaluing him.

[zambonir]

The reality is that the success of a draft pick isn't limited to how he does in the big leagues, it's also what prospect value you can build up in him to trade him for a big leaguer, and then being able to make those decisions without emotions getting in the way of overvaluing him.

Absolutely. But they were expecting Abel's value to peak this season. Instead it cratered (at least for now).

[Austinfan]

You can pick up back of the rotation guys later in the draft, so wasting a 1st rd pick on a college pitcher without front of the rotation upside doesn't make a lot of sense. Heck, you can buy guys better than Walker for the same price.

Finding and developing top 3 starters is the key to success, Phillies have managed to hit the jackpot with Ranger and Sanchez (give scouts credit for the latter).

It makes sense to gamble on upside later in the 1st rd, where the odds of missing on a "sure thing" are pretty substantial.

[andyb]

MLB Pipeline mocks us Slade Caldwell. HS OF from Arkansas. Speedy outfielder with advanced approach and midlevel power. Some overlap with Crawford on the tools.

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-pipeline-mock-draft-june-20?t=mlb-draft-coverage

[zambonir]

Anybody we should care about in this decisive CWS game? (Never mind that those guys - at least the pitchers - are often the last ones you want.)

[fish]

Aggies reliever Chris Cortez has a George Klassen-like arm and had a poor command last season as a starter like klassen had in college. but much better command as a reliever this year. Probably a third or fourth rounder.

[Squire]

Updated BA Mock gave us Drew Sloan a RHP from HS in Illinois but also connected us with LHP Kash mayfield and said RHP Brody Brecht made sense

[andyb]

Have the Phillies been mocked the same player in any two different mocks yet? Clearly the national writers seem to have no clue where the Phillies are going here.

[Squire]

Unlike his predecessors Barber runs a tight ship

[Matt_Winkelman]

It isn't just they run a tight ship, but they have been very opportunistic the last 4 years on high schoolers falling in the draft as teams do their inevitable spring for college guys or under slot. In my opinion, that is also the ideal strategy for the back of the 1st round anyway, as you aren't getting safety+upside so you might as well take upside. So I think most industry people expect them to take a risky archetype of player, probably high school, but the exact player is unknown because it will depend on who slips through. So you are seeing changes in the mocks based on the information about and which falling guy the writer needs to find a pick home for.

[andyb]

It is also just really hard to mock this far down in any baseball draft. I agree with going upside here. The old Phillies used to go for the lower ceiling college arm in this place or the HS outfielder without a good hit tool. These Phillies are going for more upside which is good even if it involves risk with an Abel or a Painter. Miller with his injury also fits that mode.

[BostonRoss]

Has anyone ever looked at how accurate mock drafts are after the first few picks?

[zambonir]

Are they even really supposed to be accurate? I mean yeah some guys do have Intel but I view them more as entertainment and pure guessing wrapped in some informed speculation.

Matt's explanation being a more astute analysis than any mock too.

To your question I wonder how the 2016 mocks went.

[andyb]

Matt on the Phillies' past draft strategies. Key word is risk.

Using the Past to Preview the Phillies 2024 Draft

[Austinfan]

With a 100 win team, a rebuilt bottom of the farm system and a pro scouting group that has mostly done a good job of finding low cost bench players in low asset trades and signings (Merrifield being an exception, but one year deal) I think Phillies are more interest in gambling on future starters than safer back of the roster types.

Think they see minor league free agents in the 24-27 year group as the way to build ML ready organizational depth. Sign them for Lehigh (and 30+ veteran RPs, hoping for another Hoffman).

So they really don't care if they miss on most of their top 10 draft picks if they can hit on a RP good enough to be a 7th+ inning guy, back of the roster starter, or a pushing to start position player. Which means gambling on big arms, players who slip due to injury or weaker competition or other reasons that push down a player with raw talent.

When you're picking 25th or later most years, those "sure things" are long gone.

[fish]

'Opportunists' in the first round followed by tools tools tools at every opportunity that follows is what that seems to show.

[Austinfan]

I think in the past they went with more "safe" guys who wouldn't embarrass a scout or farm director by burning out in low A ball, so you ended up with lots of AA to AAA types who lacked the tools to be more than marginal ML players. So an emphasis on college players with proven track records.

A CYA strategy,

[andyb]

They have not been going with a safe strategy since Barber took over (a big point of the article). Obviously every team has a handful of safer picks, but our top picks have been heavily high school and our mid-top 10 round picks have emphasized tools over college performance. We are looking for big arms that don't have top round pedigree generally in rounds 4-6.

With our top pick we like high school players that have dropped for some reason (risk with pitchers, injury with Miller, etc,). That does not mean guys like Crawford and Miller don't have more polish than one normally sees with high school hitters. They do. That is why they are first round picks instead of lower. We just prefer them to the college players because we feel they have a higher ceiling and might have dropped in the draft because of that risk.

[gmwannabe]

nice to have a second rounder this year.