2024 MLB (Rule 4) Draft Discussion

[Squire]

Phillies pick #27 in the first round and as of now have all of their picks

SQUIRE

[fish]

Phillies pick #27 in the first round and as of now have all of their picks

SQUIRE

And with the 27th pick BA mocks the Phils LSU rhp Thatcher Hurd. mid 90s stuff but some command issues.

https://x.com/thatcherhurd/status/1496922429662253059?s=46&t=mvOU_pmOKCjCzc-L4tyU4w

Nice job everyone.

[andyb]

Not for an imminent draft, but one of Japan's best HS prospects has signed with Stanford. Big 1B with power. It is just an interesting path for a high school prospect that clearly wants to play in the U.S. and probably does not want to get tied into the Japanese free agency and posting path. I think we have agreements against drafting 17-18 year old amateurs, so this might actually be the quickest way for a Japanese kid to get into our minor league system after 3 years of college. Stanford education being a nice side benefit of this path too.

Japanese phenom to play U.S. college baseball at Stanford

[fish]

There are a few college starters that are emerging as potential guys in the second half of the first round, maybe even in the second round given how nasty pitching is these days.

Luke Holman at LSU- looks a little like Logan Gilbert, especially if he can find another 2-3 mph.

Arkansas RHP Brady Tygert

Wake Forest LHP Josh Hartle. He’s had draft buzz but I don’t think his stuff is good enough for the top half of the first round, but I like his pitch mix and the way his arm works- there may be a few more mph to squeeze from him.

Iowa RHP Brody Brecht is a pitching prospect reincarnation of Tyler Glasgow- the awesome stuff and raw /wild tools.

[fish]

BA’s latest mock based on draft ranking lines the Phillies up with 6’4” 225 east Carolina rhp Trey. Solid stuff, but seems to throw more downhill with less life.

https://www.mlb.com/video/2024-trey-yesavage-rhp?partnerId=web_video-playback-page_video-share

The guy ranked at #26 (PJ Morlando) however, seems exactly like a Phillies type pick.
The 6’4” 200 lb, high schooler has made good impressions on the showcase circuit. Left handed hitter, listed as a 1B trying to play center this year to improve his value but he doesn’t look quick enough for that. Good bat speed, power, but maybe looks like his swing is geared to lift the ball a little too much. Kind of looks like Paul O’Neil. It’s gonna be tough to find a gem this year.

[Squire]

Draft Bonus Pool Info released. Phillies with the 27th largest (or 4th smallest) pool at $7,381.800

[phillychuck]

Re Morlando, it is always hard to get a look as a RH-throwing, LH hitting 1B since there is so much completion at that position from the pure lefties. It would help him if he could play corner OF.

[andyb]

Keith Law Top 50. Cam Caminiti seems interesting to me if we ventured back into the HS pitcher category (which I know has a low success rate). Athletic LHP (related to Ken). Gio Gonzalez type maybe?

Ranking the top 50 prospects for the 2024 MLB Draft: Why Keith Law has Charlie...

[Squire]

Wild that 10 of the first 22 are college position players.

[andyb]

I think the risk of pitching in general (both HS and college) is pushing more pitching prospects back in the draft. College hitters are the least risky category. The Barber era seems more concerned with high ceiling than low floor draft picks though.

[fish]

Barber’s first rounders have one thing in common- track record and ceiling. Caminiti has those, but doesn’t spin it like they would seem to like.

[Squire]

New BA Mock Draft up today:

1. Phillies — Kellon Lindsey, SS/OF, Hardee HS, Wauchula, Fla.
   Since Lindsey popped up this spring, he’s gotten back-of-the-first round buzz thanks to his shortstop defense, 80-grade speed and bat-to-ball skills. It would be fun seeing the team who currently employs Trea Turner (a frequent comp for Lindsey) drafting Lindsey and he seems to fit here purely on talent as well. After Rainer, he has a shot to be the next prep shortstop off the board.

[DougLindsay]

Holman is from Berks County and his dad played in the Phillies system.

[fish]

Mlbpipeline mocked Stanford 20 year old catcher Malcom Moore to the Phils…mostly it seems because they have 3 college catchers they wanted to rank in the first round. Moore’s overall numbers actually look really good…until you get to his .247 BA. His swing when he does hit doesn’t look all that good. I have the utmost confidence that the Phils will not be drafting Moore in the first round.

[Austinfan]

He sounds more like a 6th rd flier.

[xogfog]

Keith Law Mock on The Athletic today, has the Phillies taking HS SS Theo Gillen, here's his write up:

"Gillen has zoomed up draft boards in the latter half of this spring as scouts love his swing and some even see a future 60 hit tool here. The Phillies have been all about high school talent since Brian Barber took over as scouting director and I don’t see any reason to expect that to change with the early success his first-round picks have had in the minors."

[Austinfan]

SS and CF types who can hit are high floor, b/c they're athletic enough (especially if they have above average arms) to play anywhere.

[gmwannabe]

I called the painter pick a few years back. I want William Schmidt. Second round go for a hitter.
gm

[andyb]

I called the painter pick a few years back. I want William Schmidt. Second round go for a hitter.

Well, MLB Pipeline agrees with you:
https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-pipeline-2024-mock-draft-mid-may?t=mlb-draft-coverage

Because teams are wary of the risk involved with prep pitchers, they tend to get drafted lower than they're rated and paid over-slot bonuses. That figures to be the case with Schmidt, our top-rated high school arm on the basis of his best-in-class hammer curveball and a fastball that touches 99 mph.

[xogfog]

ESPN first round mock

Tommy White, 3B, LSU

If you're a college baseball fan, you may be confused why White has lasted this long. He has a couple of potential landing spots in the top 20 picks, but most scouting directors think he goes somewhere around here. He's a fine-but-not-great defender at third base and still has chase rates that are much worse than average despite being super productive in college. Tommy Tanks just seems like he would fit in great with Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos in Philly's lineup.