2024 MLB (Rule 4) Draft Discussion

Squire 2024-05-31 15:10:57 UTC #21

New BA Mock has us taking LHP Kash Mayfield, Elk City HS (OK)

andyb 2024-05-31 18:27:43 UTC #22

New MLB Pipeline mock:
https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-pipeline-2024-mock-draft-may-30?t=mlb-draft-coverage

Malcolm Moore - C (can't see this pick happening especially given the writeup).

Teams still like the underlying data, and he’s improved his defense. But it’s hard to figure out where to put a guy who is a sophomore-eligible Stanford product (will signability be an issue?), let alone one who is hitting just .255.

julio 2024-05-31 18:38:49 UTC #23

Well, you don't draft Malcom Moore unless you have a pretty iron-clad understanding from him (and his agent) that he will sign, and for what amount. Further, if you think he warrants a high-round pick, and you have these assurances, you make sure you draft him in the top three rounds - so if he reneges, you get a comp pick next year.

andyb 2024-05-31 18:48:15 UTC #24

But guys that hit .255 in college generally don't get picked in the 1st round. Or the 2nd. Or the 3rd. Assume the underlying data is that he hits the ball hard and he does have power and an idea of the strike zone (more BBs than Ks) Baron Radcliff had similar power and batting average (though a lesser BB rate). He went in the 5th round. Catchers do get positional points obviously. Just seems this is a reach from a scouting director that leans HS decidedly in his top picks.

julio 2024-05-31 20:16:49 UTC #25

OK. If he's not a top-three-round guy, then by definition, given Stanford and given he's a sophomore-eligible, he's a signability risk. So, if you have interest, you draft him below where his numbers say he belongs, and only that if you have a firm commitment to sign from player and agent (or "representative," if you prefer).

Austinfan 2024-06-01 13:41:14 UTC #26

Radcliff is a good example why contact matters, if K rates are a good sign for pitchers, conversely, they're a bad sign for hitters - Radcliff has power and a very good feel for the K zone, but is dying in AA, Martin had a high K rate and has struggled to hit in the minors.

Just say no. My suspicion is guys who struggle to make contact at lower levels, no matter how good the tools, probably have a problem picking up spin and will die at upper levels,

fish 2024-06-15 03:05:02 UTC #27

MLB pipelines latest mock has the Phillies with Mississippi State rhp Jurrangelo Cijntje. He’s potentially a viable switch pitcher but his stuff from the right side is nasty regardless. I’d be pretty excited by this pick.

Here he is in an interview while playing for the Phillies scout team-

Squire 2024-06-17 17:07:46 UTC #28

New BA Mock Draft (v.4):

Phillies — Brody Brecht, RHP, Iowa
Brecht might have too much arm talent to fall entirely out of the first round. His exact profile fits with plenty of the arms the Phillies have taken in recent years. The team has done a nice job helping 2023 sixth-rounder George Klassen throw strikes in his first year in pro ball. If they can do the same with Brecht there’s front-of-the-rotation upside to be had.

fish 2024-06-17 17:47:34 UTC #29

His bugaboo has been command but he looks like the kind of athlete on the mound with the ability to get to where he needs to be. And, ooooh, that slider.

https://fb.watch/sMb_HXVp7k/?mibextid=w8EBqM

kmc1019 2024-06-17 18:36:54 UTC #30

I agree the stuff looks good and certainly a big body, though I was cringing as the pitch count hit 115.

andyb 2024-06-17 18:40:28 UTC #31

Clearly our GM likes the hard throwing raw college arm with command issues. Previously though we have selected that pitcher in rounds 4-6. I am not sure Barber wants to risk a first round pick on this type of profile. Now the HS pool on both offense and pitching might be a little thin this year, but that does not mean we start using number one picks on risky college players.

fish 2024-06-17 19:29:35 UTC #32

I think highschool SS Theo Gillen is the closest to an Aidan Miller -type with a chance of getting to their pick. Big, strong kid with track record, and a track record of injuries with a torn labrum in 2022 and a knee injury in 2023. I haven’t read anything that suggests that shoulder injury sapped any of his abilities, but it’s possible that could float him down a little lower than he would be otherwise.

I also think someone is going to get a good catcher from the college class this year who could be in the Phillies range…Walter Janek or Cam Lomavita being the obvious names, but figuring out who is going to be a good pro catching prospect never seems to be the obvious choice.

andyb 2024-06-19 16:38:21 UTC #33

2-round mock from ESPN.

At 27 they have us with Vance Honeycutt (North Carolina). College CF with swing and miss issues but high ceiling. 2nd round Blake Burke (1B, Tennessee).

And Keith Law mocks Carter Johnson (Alabama HS SS) to us.

fish 2024-06-19 17:29:54 UTC #34

The tools of Trea Turner and the hitting approach of Nick Castellanos (the one that guesses, strikes out 185 times, walks 30 times and has a .310 obp). I guess you roll the dice on him if you don’t like the upside of anyone else available to you.

gmwannabe 2024-06-19 18:05:36 UTC #35

I'm looking pitcher either 1st or second round. Preferably one of the high school ones that might drop.
gm

Squire 2024-06-19 22:00:58 UTC #36

I also think pitching should be the target in the 1st. We've got a legit plethora of middle infield prospects in the system and our system pitching is getting thin. I like Caminiti, Brecht or Mayfield.

gmwannabe 2024-06-19 22:47:53 UTC #37

I'm still calling Schmidt. I'll let you know if anything changes.

fish 2024-06-20 03:51:37 UTC #38

It took a lifetime, but I think i'm finally ready to admit that drafting high school pitching in the first round is like breeding puppies. You have to be ready to sell them at peak value before they lose value. I.e., i have complete confidence they can identify and develop a high school pitcher into a top 100 prospect, but when they get to that point is when it's time to sell, and that's just hard to do when you've bonded.

BostonRoss 2024-06-20 12:20:00 UTC #39

If I calculated correctly, of the top 20 active pitchers in career WAR who went through the draft, 14 of them were drafted out of colleges. If I have time, I might look at high draft picks and compare the percentages of pitchers drafted from college, and success rates for college and high school pitchers. (Probably someone has already done something like this.)

zambonir 2024-06-20 12:21:50 UTC #40

So, trade Painter?