Joe was a .500/losing manager for the first three months last season, before going 31-23 in July and August. Maybe that could have happened again, but of course, they went back to being under. 500 from there last year.
It just does seem like the team's record under Thomson falls outside the margin of both strength of schedule and the "bump," especially given the loss of Harper and two SPs. Of course people were still writing off this season as recently as the Braves series loss.
The question now is really how hard to go out to improve if you are just in a three-team race for the last wild card? But any of the wild cards could be in reach if they stay this hot or make enough upgrades (2.5 back of Pads, 4.5 Braves). We've passed the Pads in run differential and are catching up to the Mets.