2022 Phillies Major League Regular Season Discussion

[BostonRoss]

It doesn't seem to me that the 2022 Phillies have underperformed much compared to expectations. Some players are off to slow starts (a few, such as Harper and Wheeler, likely due to injuries that hopefully will heal eventually). But others have been better than expected (Didi, Bohm, Herrera), and the bullpen is much improved. The defense is bad, as expected. It was never likely for Wheeler, Suarez, Harper, and Vierling to duplicate 2021.

I think the offense will improve if they get and stay healthy, but the pitching and defense are probably not going to be much better. I think we're still looking at a slightly above .500 team.

[zambonir]

The offense is currently fourth in MLB in OPS and RBIs, and second (tied) in runs scored. A lot of that has probably come against Oakland and Colorado. But the reality is they have to score 5-6 runs most nights to win (even if last night would have taken 7. Certainly being without Castellanos and even Herrera didn't help last night).

Easy to say it now - though some certainly said it before - but it does seem incredible now that they thought they could count on a rotation built around someone coming off knee surgery and someone with as little body of work as Ranger, especially with some Wheeler drop-off inevitable and Nola more of a mid-rotation guy. But by the time they spent their money on DH #2 there also weren't any starters left. It sure looks like the story of this season is going to be good pitching beats good hitting (when we play the good teams).

If we don't think they are quite this bad, than yeah, they will eventually round into being the 84 win team most expected, which may or may not break higher (86-87) towards the playoffs, or lower (81-82) for another year of mediocrity. But I'm still pretty bearish on this May schedule.

[zambonir]

I feel like this is a mildly overlooked aspect of the team's struggles. It downgrades the defense further, prevent other players from DHing and takes an important tone-setter out of the game except when he bats. On top of that, he's not exactly lighting it up at the plate (I mean we knew a repeat of last year was unlikely, and his OPS+ looks a lot better than his OPS, but still).

No plans for Phillies’ Bryce Harper to resume throwing after examination reveals...

[Philsmania]

Easy to say it now - though some certainly said it before - but it does seem incredible now that they thought they could count on a rotation built around someone coming off knee surgery and someone with as little body of work as Ranger, especially with some Wheeler drop-off inevitable and Nola more of a mid-rotation guy. But by the time they spent their money on DH #2 there also weren't any starters left.

As they say in business, hope is not a strategy. However, that seems to be the Phillies' pitching strategy year after year. Like in 2019, when they hoped that Velasquez's and Pivetta's 2018 FIPs were signs of things to come. They weren't.

As much Girardi's seat may be getting warm, some criticism must be directed at our future HOF POBO.

[allentown]

As they say in business, hope is not a strategy. However, that seems to be the Phillies' pitching strategy year after year.

I don't think that's really true. They added Wheeler to improve the rotation. This year, for some reason, they added two DH types and ignored the rotation and defense in the off-season. It is extremely rare to not need at least a 6th season, but we lacked a plausible 6th at start of season. Results on the field are proving my contention that it's a poorly constructed team. The Phillies increased spending, but the Mets sprinted to a different level. The Phillies lost last night because the offense couldn't score a single run in the standard 9 innings.

[Austinfan]

I think the rotation will be fine, Suarez is a command pitcher who is a couple weeks behind, he wasn't going to repeat last year's absurd performance, but he should be fine. Wheeler, Nola are fine, Gibson pitching above expectations, Eflin isn't pitching that badly and should turn it around. The bullpen is much deeper than last year, but they lack a 6th starter. Unfortunately, McGarry is at least a year away and Abel and Painter two years. And no one else seems a viable candidate - though Morales may be in the pen by summer if he keeps it up.

Problem is the offense is very inconsistent right now.

However, it's a bit early to panic. Track records say this should be a top offense once the weather warms up, the pitching should be average, if the fielding isn't a disaster this team is capable of one of those hot months where you gain a lot of ground. Quinn/Herrera is better than expected in CF, and Stott and Moniak will have a chance to show in Lehigh that they should be brought back.

[phillychuck]

Colton Eastman and Ricardo Sanchez are pitching pretty we'll in AAA and could be 6th starters, but that would pose 40-man roster problems I think.

[zambonir]

Yeah, they added Wheeler in 2020 and it's not like they sat on their hands in 2021, it's just that Moore and Anderson were both poor choices (and a bad use of limited $). Spencer Howard also really went wrong. This time, the "additions" were Kyle Gibson (fair enough) and Ranger Suarez and no one is really pitching poorly enough to lose their job. But the offense has to mash more for it to work and the depth is just awful.

No, it's not time to panic, but there's also no reason to think the team will do any better over the next five weeks as it has over the first four, and if that's the case, there won't be panic, just the reality that the season has likely been lost already.

And waiting for the weather isn't gonna help. It's already a top offense now. They might score more runs and hit more homers when it gets warmer but guess what? So will the other teams.

I don't think Girardi deserves much blame at all, if any. He just doesn't make them better. and he has failed to fulfill the premise on which he was hired (i.e. the talent was already here and a World Series winning manager was the missing link. Oh, but then it turned out to be the GM. And then it turned out to be not paying the CBT. What next?)

[allentown]

I don't think Girardi deserves much blame at all, if any. He just doesn't make them better. and he has failed to fulfill the premise on which he was hired (i.e. the talent was already here and a World Series winning manager was the missing link. Oh, but then it turned out to be the GM. And then it turned out to be not paying the CBT. What next?)

Sal? Maybe decide that defense actually does matter?

[zambonir]

I mean, the correct answer is the owner and the actual answer is obviously they will just change the manager again. And maybe ship out a few core players who might be leaving soon anyway (Hoskins, Nola).

I neither blame nor credit Girardi for anything (and think it's ridiculous he got flack for pulling Wheeler last night) but it's pretty painful that there were four different people who could have managed the Phillies in 2020 - Gabe Kapler, Joe Girardi, Dusty Baker and Buck Showalter - and we seem to have picked the low card.

[andyb]

It would be interesting and bold if the Phillies decided to trade Hoskins now for a CF or some pitching help. Can't imagine they would do it for just prospects and it is rare to see in season trades where both teams might get a benefit.

But a Darick Hall/Bohm platoon at 1B with Bohm playing 3B against RHP - paired with a CF better than what we have now - might improve the team. Hall still has giant platoon splits, but I am betting he can hit RHP as well as Hoskins can now.

[allentown]

I mean, the correct answer is the owner

Why the owner? First managing partner willing to get ownership to commit $ above lux tax. I think he has learned some lessons, undoubtedly needs to learn more. I never understood ownerships willingness to hire bright, inexperienced, young GMs and managers, when they obviously only listen to the grey hairs, whom they trust. Yes, he has meddled with his crush on inexperienced amateur analysts, when other teams had professionalized their analytics departments with people who understood both stats and baseball. I don't understand why he felt a retired fossil like MacPhail could successfully manage the youngsters. [perhaps I have it all wrong and MacPhail was the security blanket Middleton had to give the other owners]

I suspect that, like Lurie with Roseman, the owners need someone they can talk with comfortably and who allows them to meddle a bit. Middleton needs to be more comfortable with bright, young, baseball-oriented management people.

[zambonir]

I think you answered your own question there with a lot of reasons why his reign as managing partner has failed, year after year. And he didn't need to convince the "ownership" to go above the luxury tax, he's already 49% of that decision and only has to get one other entity on board. The Bucks seem to defer to him on everything, I doubt they had even a seconds worth of input on MacPhail - Middleton was the one who needed the security blanket, and deferred to Gillick too.

Now is nothing like when Giles and Monty had their meager % and had to answer to four or five people all of whom were also old. The ironic thing is this is a younger generation - it is not Middleton's father, or the Bucks' parents. But they still seem old (or old-school).

I mean, he's the owner, he's not going anywhere. But he's also not a new owner. It's great that he's rich, but he's shown no facility for hiring good people, actually changing team culture or making a single good decision, going back to the Howard extension (which he was obviously the key person who had to sign off on that with Monty) and the Burnett deal (which also delayed the rebuild). And since then, all the hands-on moves he's made. Not all of them terrible, he just shouldn't be the one making them, and up to this point, he has not hired any good people. The Girardi era is likely almost over and there's already only two years left of the Dombrowski era (at least for now). If he does leave hopefully he'll have left behind a franchise that is in better shape, but there probably isn't gonna be a ring, and that's the standard Middleton has claimed to have, since 2009 as well as 2019. I'm also not going to applaud him for passing the CBT this year when it should have happened each of the last two years.

I think you are probably right that Dombrowski is the best-case scenario in terms of being a Roseman type for Middleton. And Fuld, and the recent hires, seem much better than the Klentak front office. Perhaps when Fuld is President and Kilambi is GM it will be a new dawn. Led by mostly Klentak draft picks (Bohm, Stott, Abel, Moniak?) if we're lucky.

[zambonir]

Phillies hitting fewer home runs than they did last year.

But also, MLB notified teams of this long before DD went all-in on sluggers.

Why isn’t the ball carrying for the Phillies and the rest of MLB? Here’s what we...

Fact: In February, each team received a memo from MLB that detailed modifications to the official Rawlings baseball. According to reporting at the time from the Associated Press and The Athletic, three wool windings within the balls were loosened, essentially to make them less bouncy. The idea was to slightly deaden the balls after a surge in home runs that peaked in 2019. Citing an independent lab, MLB estimated the new balls would fly 1 to 2 feet shorter on drives of over 375 feet.

(MLB also divulged that more teams would keep the balls in a humidor. By opening day, all 30 ballparks had a humidor for storage.)

Fact: In April, teams averaged 4.03 runs per game, a decrease of 0.26 runs per team per game from last season. The league-wide batting average was almost identical to last year — .231 compared to .232 in 2021. But home runs were way down, from 1.14 homers per team per game last year to 0.91. Based on ESPN research, it marked the first time since 2015 that teams averaged less than one homer per game for the first month of a season.

Fact: The Phillies in April were actually better than league average in most offensive categories, including batting average (.244), runs per game (4.54), and homers per game (0.95). But the latter was down from last year, when they averaged one homer per game in April despite not having a designated hitter — or Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber, for that matter — in the lineup.

[Philsmania]

Like McPhail before him, Dumbrowski is putting a sorry capstone on a distinguished career.

[zambonir]

I think DD might leave the franchise in better shape than he found it which MacPhail really didn't. But he got hired to win now which may have been fantasy. And both men basically took the job because they had nothing better to do.

Moniak news (as referenced in game thread)

Phillies’ Mickey Moniak taking ‘light swings’ and throwing; Connor Brogdon’s...

[Philsmania]

They need to blow things up and start a new rebuild. Unfortunately, next season, they'll be paying a out at least $25 million for Harper, Wheeler, Realmuto, Castellanos and Schwarber to play for someone else. Trade each and $5million for each year left on each of their contracts.

[zambonir]

I think it's too late for that. If they fall out of the race like it seems they will there will definitely be some dramatic moves, both deadline and off-season, but they still have enough talent - and $ - to rebuild on the fly for at least one more season, possibly two - with a new manager. After that Dombrowski's contract is up and trading Harper could be on the table, but no way it would be as soon as this year. And we certainly don't want them to pull a Reds or Oakland.

Probably easier to unload Hoskins than one of the two new guys. Maybe trade Nola for value too. You're gonna lose both for nothing and could actually get talent for them, and then replace them with the freed-up cash. Just replace them smarter, hopefully.

[Philsmania]

Why don't we want to pull a Reds or Oakland? Scorched earth rebuild. Trust the process.

[zambonir]

Sure what could go wrong?