2022 Phillies Major League Regular Season Discussion

VoteForKalas 2022-05-06 12:52:58 UTC #243

The issue is not spending, but ROI. Middleton appears to have no set ROI goals and performance standards for the organization. How does he measure success? Is it based on monetary figures? If so, spending so much for so few results is epicly stupid for a businessman. Is it based on performance i.e. wins, playoff berths etc.? If so, he again is failing miserably and has constantly as the majority owner.

What business owner allows his company to repeatedly make horrible decisions that impair performance and damage their reputation? Who continues to hire the wrong people and fires them without looking in the mirror first and realizing he might be part of the problem? One with no clear plan and vision for success.

Middleton got his wish; full control, but he has found it is not as easy as he expected nor is he as smart as he claimed.

Austinfan 2022-05-06 13:34:34 UTC #244

They're doing some things right, after a string of bad 1st rd picks, Stott, Bohm, Abel, Painter are looking much better.

Barber seems to have changed the focus from "safe" to "star" in evaluating prospects, you're still going to miss on most prospects, but hopefully they'll have some bigger hits.

They've finally rationalized the development process, and hopefully everyone is on the same page.

Unfortunately, these are the kinds of moves that take 5 years to bear fruit.

And no more Girardi's, get me a manager who isn't collecting his last paycheck.

Philsmania 2022-05-06 13:38:22 UTC #245

VoteForKalas:

allentown:

Why the owner? First managing partner willing to get ownership to commit $ above lux tax. I think he has learned some lessons, undoubtedly needs to learn more. I never understood ownerships willingness to hire bright, inexperienced, young GMs and managers, when they obviously only listen to the grey hairs, whom they trust. Yes, he has meddled with his crush on inexperienced amateur analysts, when other teams had professionalized their analytics departments with people who understood both stats and baseball. I don't understand why he felt a retired fossil like MacPhail could successfully manage the youngsters. [perhaps I have it all wrong and MacPhail was the security blanket Middleton had to give the other owners]
The issue is not spending, but ROI. Middleton appears to have no set ROI goals and performance standards for the organization. How does he measure success? Is it based on monetary figures? If so, spending so much for so few results is epicly stupid for a businessman. Is it based on performance i.e. wins, playoff berths etc.? If so, he again is failing miserably and has constantly as the majority owner.

What business owner allows his company to repeatedly make horrible decisions that impair performance and damage their reputation? Who continues to hire the wrong people and fires them without looking in the mirror first and realizing he might be part of the problem? One with no clear plan and vision for success.

Middleton got his wish; full control, but he has found it is not as easy as he expected nor is he as smart as he claimed.

I never thought I would say that I hope the Bucks save us and force a sale.

Austinfan 2022-05-06 13:52:15 UTC #246

It's good to have an owner willing to spend money, just need a GM who knows where to spend it.
But those two acquisitions may make more sense after they dump Hoskins, who seems to have lost his mojo.
[wonder if the Phillies self-scouted and saw a flaw the league had started to exploit]
Then you'll have room at 1B and DH.

The real problem is years of bad drafting and LA signings - no amount of money can overcome a lack of talent in the development pipeline.
2011: Quinn
2012: nada
2013: Crawford (Segura)
2014: Nola, Hoskins
2015: Kingery, Falter
2016: Moniak
2017: Maton, Brogdon
2018: Bohm, Vierling, O'Hoppe
2019: Stott
2020: Abel
2021: Painter

LA players on the roster or a good shot this year, Suarez, SD, Morales

That's pitiful, especially 2012-2017.

Philsmania 2022-05-06 14:38:55 UTC #247

If they do an autopsy on the post-2014 rebuild, that's the cause of failure. Despite being in an advantageous position, we scouted, signed and developed precious little.

allentown 2022-05-06 14:56:24 UTC #248

And refused to participate in the Cuban or Japanese markets, where spending wasn't regulated. And signed very little international teenage talent, or didn't develop what talent we did sign. As we see with the construction of the current roster, the hiring of DD, Girardi, and MacPhail: the Phillies are still way too in love with the backs of the baseball cards, disdaining youth and judging players and execs based on what they accomplished years ago. A lot of that does seem to be changing, as the development system has been overhauled, as has domestic scouting. International still seems to be a wasteland. Our new, professionalized analytics department will help our baseball-side managers going forward.

zambonir 2022-05-06 15:48:47 UTC #249

The drafting and development failings - that ship has sailed and we can only hope Barber (a Klentak/MacPhail hire - technically their only one for that job!) and Mattingly (who still kept the Driveline guys) are a better answer.

But the pivot point for this group was 2019, when they realized no help was really coming (mostly from the Hamels trade) and decided to become a veteran team (and at the expense of the current best player on that list from 2011 to 2021 too). The past two seasons were another pivot point, as the prospects still failed to arrive (or flopped) and they continued to proceed full speed ahead. Which in some ways is fine, I neither wanted nor expected a full rebuild let alone a tank (Oakland and Pittsburgh and Cincinnati aren't tanking to rebuilt, they are tanking to make profits, and other teams - most notably the Phillies - have shown the Astros formula isn't easily repeated).

But thus far Dombrowski has shown no facility for actually tweaking and improving a major league roster, which is the one thing he did successfully in Boston and the one job he had here. Really, he hasn't even tinkered (no trades), and last year's team was basically the same as 2020's. Of course he inherited a much better foundation in Boston (so much so that his predecessor probably shouldn't have been fired).

They may not be this bad but it seems pretty unlikely we'll be sitting here in October saying, "wow, remember how negative we were in May? Dombrowski really showed us!" And it's pretty easy to see the flaws: the millions of DHs, the mishandling of the left side of the IF and the lack of a CF or lead-off hitter.

allentown 2022-05-06 15:54:22 UTC #250

Been there before and been disappointed. I admit that I too am more optimistic this time around, although I thought Almaraz and Jordan would improve the situation. I don't know if the Phillies could have kept Arby in charge of scouting and player development if they substantially upped his salary when they made RAJ the GM.

zambonir 2022-05-06 15:59:39 UTC #251

It's odd Arbuckle never wanted to be a GM again but probably not. He wasn't going to lick his wounds and stay in his old job, not even for more $ (which I'm sure the Phillies wouldn't have offered anyway) or a better title.

Who knows how much better he would have fared, he also would not have had much to work with compared to the previous 10 years (in terms of draft position and forfeited picks) and probably would have been gone before those high picks started coming up for the Phillies again.

andyb 2022-05-06 16:51:25 UTC #252

I would really only put Painter is a category of being better than expected. Abel has been about as expected but has lots of risk going forward. Stott was a polished college bat who has developed along expectations but has not even made the majors yet. And Bohm is really below expectations for a number 3 overall pick. Really looks like a 2-3 WAR player max because of his defense and that is nowhere near the ceiling you want from that spot in the draft.

There is really no serious indication from the farm that they have corrected their problems yet.

andyb 2022-05-06 17:01:22 UTC #253

Maybe the Phillies need a break this weekend, but it is tough to know how many games they will actually get in. Friday and Saturday will be pretty wet and Sunday is the day before the team heads out west to Seattle so difficult to get in a double header that day.

zambonir 2022-05-06 17:02:24 UTC #254

They are looking much better than Moniak, Haseley and even Kingery, is all. Not better than expected in general.

Though I think 2-3 WAR ceiling is probably still pretty high for the average high first-round pick. Beats Nick Senzel (and Moniak, of course)!

Either way there is just so very little help over this year and next. Unless Moniak breaks out they probably can't wait for Rojas/Muzziotti to truly compete next season when they also have to be patient with Stott and potentially fill 2B (or SS if Stott is the 2B) and 3B (if Bohm moves).

McCullough noted the Mets only come to Philly one more time this year (which is also a drag tbh) but it's not like it's hard to do a one-off off-day game if they have to.

andyb 2022-05-06 17:05:25 UTC #255

If they have to play 5 games in 3 days later in the season it might be better than playing any games this weekend.

Of course our 6th and 7th starters in a couple of months may not be that good.....

zambonir 2022-05-06 17:26:35 UTC #256

Yeah they might be out of it by August, but if they're not, good to have more meaningful games then.

https://twitter.com/Phillies/status/1522618588695306246

andyb 2022-05-06 19:33:09 UTC #257

Castellanos x-rays negative. Day to day.

Looks like we have hit Gelb's personal leave for the Athletic. I think he is out for a few weeks. Coverage now by all the national and opposing team writers. The Athletic is getting much more thin at the local level. In DC the last two baseball writers are on national coverage now and there is nobody at all dedicated to the Nats.

zambonir 2022-05-06 20:04:46 UTC #258

Yeah none of our business but I'm not sure this was a planned leave. Had it been, maybe they would have recruited someone freelance. But cheaper to just have the people already drawing salary do it.

Nice story he filed just before though. Never really cared for Murphy in his previous role, due to the role itself. Like him just fine as a regular announcer or host. And obviously all of that is besides the point with regards to his health! Props to the Phillies this time around for sure.

VoteForKalas 2022-05-06 21:22:29 UTC #259

The point is the owner hires the GM and if the owner does not know WTF he is doing then he will continue to hire the wrong GM and other people throughout the organization.

flyers19rw 2022-05-06 23:06:02 UTC #260

It's just been a goofy start to the season. Cold weather after a shortened ST doesn't help. Now come the rain outs which may be a blessing in disguise.
The most unfortunate thing for the Phillies is that the League decided to take th air out of the ball. DD designed a club that would hit the ball hard. So far that hasn't worked out as planned. With a deadened ball it might have been wiser to have emphasized pitching and defense instead. Then who knew? I still can see the League quietly putting helium back into the balls. The fans want to see the long ball.
While accepting that championships are won in early May but can be lost at that time, it's a long season. Lots can and will happen.

zambonir 2022-05-06 23:22:12 UTC #261

Life comes at you fast, right? First you're the young whippersnapper 15% owner forcing out Bill Giles after 16 years because he's lost touch. 17 years later you've got almost half the team and are more gently forcing out another old-timer due to ill health. What does Middleton see after looking in the mirror for the past eight years - besides the absence of another ring? While he can't actually be fired given his much greater $$$ and ownership share, does he realize his tenure is already halfway to the expiration date on those guys?

zambonir 2022-05-07 01:26:48 UTC #262

I don't believe he'll get fired, though it could certainly happen in June or August. And I feel like it would take a series win, not just the last playoff berth and an early exit, to earn an extension. But it's laughable to even expect that right now.