2021 Phillies Major League Regular Season Discussion

[Austinfan]

Not all these prospects will pan out, but suddenly a barrren farm system isn't looking so barren, and that might be the key to a second half run. Watching Vierling come out of nowhere, same with Williams and Maton, makes you think there may be something to the change in development philosophy and personnel, they all seem to have the short stroke and hit to the opposite field. So it is credible that they're pursuing intensive instruction, and those young players who aren't amenable will be moved at some point for other team's prospects.

Moniak is showing good power, but needs to make contact. K rate is far too high.
Kingery needs to rework his swing, same issue, K rate too high.
Randolph needs to stay healthy and show his hot start isn't a fluke
Haseley just needs PA
Stott is progressing rapidly, probably get promoted to Lehigh soon.
Marchan just needs to add strength

Sanchez, Paulino, Llovera, Singer, Hammer, Feliz, DLS all potential BP help.

On the other hand, Medina, Morales, are big disappointments, starting to think Phillies should never give million dollar deals to LA players, have they hit on any of them?

[Taudawg]

On the other hand, Medina, Morales, are big disappointments, starting to think Phillies should never give million dollar deals to LA players, have they hit on any of them?

You have the money to spend and it can't be spent elsewhere - they should spend it. With the new minor league structure, I wonder if it makes more sense to concentrate the spending on quality over quantity.

[andyb]

Of course neither Medina nor Morales got million dollar bonuses. Medina was very low if I recall, like $100K. Morales was $720K and still looks like he was worth it even if he is struggling mightily with a double jump that most prospects his age are not challenged with.

Clearly we have issues at the very top of the market, but we also have not really given too many of those bonuses either. Our problem seems to be getting into bidding wars with prospects we like (Encarnacion, Ortiz, both Garcias) and giving them high bonuses to keep them away from competition even if that competition would never go to $4 million like with Ortiz.

Our large bonuses to pitchers (your example) seem pretty well spent given the risk (which also exists when you give $720K bonuses to 3rd and 4th round picks too). Carlos Carrasco and Carlos Silva were mid bonus successes from earlier years. Morales still has a ceiling as a closer even if the command on 3-4 pitches never gets there. Medina has never really shown more than occasional flashes, but he is more like a 12th round pick making it which is always a bonus.

One of the Phillies' problems is not getting the right million dollar player, but their development issues seem to be the bigger problem at the moment.

[Philsmania]

Once upon a time Medina was supposed to be the centerpiece of a Manny Machado deal until the Dodgers upped their offer at the eleventh hour with Yusniel Diaz (who interestingly has also yet to pan out). It didn't help the Phillies that at All-Star Futures Game down the road at Nationals Park, Diaz hit two homeruns while Medina got rocked for four runs in one inning and took the loss.

[BostonRoss]

The Phillies have a lot of marginal players on the 40, and losing any of them would in all likelihood not matter. And there are a lot of things that could happen (trades, injuries, etc.) that could clear space in the next five months that could clear spots. Adding someone to the 40 now to help the current team is not a problem.

[California_Dreamin]

To piggyback on what AF said earlier, and is worth noting is that it appears that under DD minor leaguers are finally getting rewarded for good performance rather than draft and bonus status. Trust me, nothing bugs minor leaguers more than watching underperforming top picks get moved up while better performing but lower bonus or draft status guys get left behind. No one knows better than the guys playing the game who the real players are vs the guys who are still living off their amateur status.

I love it that Maton, Williams, Falter and Vierling [a Triple A player for 12 minutes] have been rewarded with call ups while players we all suspected might get called up remain in the minors. Look, I want Moniak and Randolph and Haseley and Medina to succeed because it will make the Phillies better but for the long term health of the organization, the promotions of said 4 players speaks volumes, even if its unspoken.

Oh, I get that a case can be made that they were called up for this reason or that reason, such as "well the Phils want Moniak and Haseley to play everyday." I call that balderdash. Those players are not dumb, they now know that nothing will be promised to them and if Williams, Maton or Vierling stake out regular jobs with their performance with the Phils they will stay, regardless of draft status or bonus money.

I applaud DD and the Phils for this, its about time.

[zambonir]

I don't know that I see this as a truly merit-based system so much as, the new regime is not at all invested in what the previous regime acquired, and has very rapidly found it to be even more worthless than hoped/expected (when you add in Kingery, Haseley, even Howard).

And it's not like they didn't actually try to use Moniak and Kingery and Haseley for these roles first. "They need to play every day in AAA" is the same thing as "they failed."

Overall, we had to lose starters (Didi, Segura, Harper for a big) pedigreed prospects (the three mentioned) and minor league vets (Torreyes when Maton first came up, Joyce) for these opportunities to be there.

[Philsmania]

At this point, I wonder if they leave Moniak exposed to the Rule V draft this offseason.

[BaseballCat]

If other players overtake him, I would expose him to Rule 5. I think he has been given enough time to prove himself. He is better, but not enough yet.

[zambonir]

I think Moniak will be traded before he's lost to Rule 5. Which will probably be more like "included in a trade," or "traded for very little" than some kind of big return. but he's still got some value. He'd also be pretty easy to keep on a roster as a Rule 5, but I'm sure some teams would rather have him without that limitation.

[andyb]

Moniak would have to be waived to be exposed to the rule 5 draft anyway so he'd be available to a waiver claim without the major league roster restrictions. So it is not going to happen. He'll stay in the system at least one more year unless he is traded.

[Austinfan]

Given his age, the mess--- that was last season, the changes in the development personnel and approach the last 2-3 years, they'd be crazy to expose him - he's developed real power, if you can combine that with the stroke he came out of HS with, you might have a real player.

[zambonir]

Heck, there's nobody in the organization right now not named Wheeler, Nola, Harper or Realmuto who is not potentially available this off-season, unless something magical happens. It would just be nice if Haseley and Moniak (and Kingery) could show enough to even be worth arguing about as trade deadline fodder.

[Sabin]

[Updating, last four starts running:

Nola (1-2): 4.37 [22.2; 25/7; .371]

Wheeler (1-1): 1.88 [28.2; 44/5; .250]

Eflin (0-4): 5.56 [22.2; 26/5; .333]

Velasquez (1-1): 4.95 [18.2; 19/10; .294]

Howard** (0-1): 2.89 [9.1; 11/9; .190]

Suarez*** (0-0): 0.00 [8.0; 7/0; .091]

** - Last three starts
*** - Three games of relief following Howard starts

Dropping Howard/Suarez due to skipped starts, etc. Last four starts:

Nola (2-0): 5.35 [20.0; 19/8; .358]

Wheeler (1-1): 1.58 [28.1; 40/8; .267]

Eflin (0-2}: 6.10 [20.2; 20/3; .375]

Velasquez (0-2): 7.88 [16.0; 14/9; .327]
...

Wheeler aside, U-G-L-Y...

[zambonir]

Remember when our problems were CF and Cutch and Bohm?

[Philsmania]

Who do we sell at the deadline?

[Taudawg]

It's still a bit early, but certainly not looking good though 70 games. Certainly everyone on an expiring contract should be traded. Beyond that, there's not much to deal that will return enough value. Eflin is in a rut. Hoskins maybe? We may have to think about the opening of 40 man spots and moving up in draft order as the best outcomes for trade deadline.

A second losing season under Girardi and Kapler kicking butt in SF, have to wonder if Girardi gets the axe??? I haven't been impressed by Joe, and he wasn't a Dombrowski hire. Plus, only one more season under contract.

[andyb]

For Friday it is probably time to DFA Hale. I'd bring up De Los Santos permanently and then have Cristopher Sanchez as the extra arm in the bullpen for the double-header.

[Philsmania]

Philadelphia was wrong about Kapler. He will have a plaque in Cooperstown like Tito.

[LoneStarPhan]

The Phillies were right about both Franconia and Kapler. They gave both there first ML managing job based on recognizing their potential. Both were not polished at the art to begin but both learned and grew as managers with the Phillies, leading to success elsewhere.

Did the Phillies give up on them too soon? Maybe, but circumstances were such that firing each probably helped them in the long run.