2021 Draft News & Speculation

[andyb]

He did get 139 plate appearances so he is no longer rookie eligible. For the Nats of course.

Seriously I am not sure we have a great SS prospect. Both Stott and Martin (who has the athleticism to stay at SS but not the hands) may not end up as SS. Garcia is a second tier prospect but just missed a big year of development.

A 3-year deal for Didi would not be the worst thing given the state of the system. Five of course is too much.

[zambonir]

I thought I read somewhere that next year's free agent class is supposed to be a banner one for shortstops. Hence, the iron may be hotter for Gregorius this winter than it may be next year. That may lead him to declining the QO.

I think it's the opposite, most teams will just make do at SS this year while they wait on next year, and the Phillies could be one of those teams too. But Didi is also not the only free agent this year. Semien and Simmons are also there, as is Freddy. He may have to decline the QO simply because the bigger class and the work stoppage make it smart for him to take less money but more years. Question is how much less. OTOH if he does one more year, at least he doesn't have the QO next time.

If he takes it might hamstring the Phillies' attempts to sign JT. And should that be a longer, later process, they won't be able to add as much pitching (let alone another catcher) in the meantime.

I suppose a three- year deal with Didi might be low-risk inasmuch as you could trade him as soon as this July. But with the budget cuts and informal collusion going on it wouldn't surprise me if the Phillies don't do it simply because they believe he won't get more than $12-13 AAV on the open market.

[flyers19rw]

Since Stott is the best hope for the Phillies at SS and he’s probably two years away, Didi would be a bridge to him. I don’t see where any other FA acquisition would make better sense. SS is not usually a power position. Didi’s over production for the position allows the Phillies the luxury of being able to accept less out of another one such as CF.

[zambonir]

The team is certainly better in 2020 with Didi, but we can't assume he'll be able to match his 2019 or 2017 production. At 31, he could start to level out, both offensively and defensively. A three-year deal and you're taking on another burden.

The best option is to sign him and move Segura, if you can, or sign him and roll the dice and give up on Kingery. If it's a multi-year deal. A one-year deal and you don't have to do anything (and you also get to trade him at the deadline maybe).

If they are shaving $20-30 million and you keep Didi, you're also still looking at Velasquez (or somebody who's not any better) in the rotation, and lord knows how they'll make room for a higher-end bullpen arm. Or of course, there's no JT. Certainly you want to keep Didi if there's no JT because your new catcher won't be providing that kind of offense.

[Squire]

I am sorry to have derailed this thread with the QO strategy. Here are the year out top prospects by category

College Pitcher
Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt
Jack Leiter, RHP
Jaden Hill, RHP, LSU
Gunner Hogland, RHP, Mississippi
Jonathan Cannon, RHP, Georgia
Ty Madden, RHP, Texas

College Position Player
Jud Fabian, OF, Florida
Matt McClain, SS, UCLA
Adrian Del Castillo, C, Miami
Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State
Alex Binelas, 3B, Louisville
Ethan Wilson, OF, South Alabama

HS Pitcher
Andrew Painter, RHP, FL
Chase Petty, RHP, NJ
Chase Burns, RHP, TN
Jackson Jobe, RHP, OK

HS Position Player
Jordan Lawlar, SS, TX
Brady House, 3B, GA
Marcelo Mayer, SS, CA
Izaac Pacheco, 3B, TX
Joe Mack, C, NY
Josh Baez, OF, MA

[gmwannabe]

Chase Burns (although pretty short) and Jonathan Cannon are giving me the vibes. maybe??
gm

[bigegypt0417]

I don't think he gets there but I really like what I've seen and read about Maddux Bruns...

Maddux Bruns Class of 2021 - Player Profile | Perfect Game USA

[fish]

Chase Burns (although pretty short) and Jonathan Cannon are giving me the vibes. maybe??
gm

At the top I like
Rocker
Leiter
Fabian
Lawler
Ethan Wilson

I like Del Castillo as a hitter, but he doesn't have a position so I cross him off.

Alex Binelas looks a bit like Josh Jung- good, but not great and he doesn't look like a 3b so I cross him off

Marcelo Mayer has a great athletic and projectable body at SS, but his hitting approach doesn't generate power.

McClain in a sure-thing shortstop- he looks like a really good 'baseball player'. But his hitting approach doesn't look like he'll impact the ball enough to merit #13.

Painter at 6'7" is bigger than I usually like, but he looks pretty athletic and like he won't balloon to 260 lbs. Clean motion- I like what I see, though the breaking ball leaves something to be desired right now.

Chase Burns- I like this guy. Electric stuff and athleticism. The video of him makes him look like an all-out reliever, which he may have been doing for the showcase, otherwise there is so much effort that it's a red-flag.

Jaden Hill has an electric fastball but fringy slider. It could tighten up and he'd be awesome. Though the short arm motion and injury history (shoulder irritation from a screw left in a broken clavicle apparently) give me pause.

Josh Baez looks like a physical beast but too raw. a

I don't care for Chase Petty's lower arm angle or NJ high school pitching pedigree (I actually went to the same school).

[gmwannabe]

Looks good to me, Biggie. A lefty to boot. i'd take him.
gm

[zambonir]

Well, Al was better than Mark so I guess Jack is better than Mark Jr.?

[Philsmania]

Well, Al was better than Mark so I guess Jack is better than Mark Jr.?

Which would mean someone else would get him. We always end up with the lesser brother, so why not end up with the lesser cousin.

[Squire]

MLBPipeline put out their Top 100 yesterday.

Top 15 are as follows:

1. Kumar Rocker, RHP Vanderbilt
2. Jordan Lawlerm, SS (TX) HS
3. Matt McClain, SS, UCLA
4. Adrian Del Castillo, C, UMiami
5. Jaden Hill, RHP, LSU
6. Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt
7. Marcelo Meyer, SS, (CA), HS
8. Jud Fabian, OF, UFlorida
9. Alex Binelas, 3B, ULouisville
10. Ty Madden, RHP, UTexas
11. Andrew Painter, RHP, (FL), HS
12. Brady House, 3B, (GA), HS
13. Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State
14. James Wood, OF, (FL), HS
15. Kahlil Watson, SS (NC), HS

We pick 13th

[bigegypt0417]

i'm a fan of Andrew Painter...13th seems like a place where you go high upside.

Andrew Painter Class of 2021 - Player Profile | Perfect Game USA

[gmwannabe]

I'd like to see them trade up and get Andrew Painter. They have to build and keep a strong starting pitching pipeline.
gm

[julio]

I'd like to see them trade up and get Andrew Painter. They have to build and keep a strong starting pitching pipeline.
gm

Trade up?

[allentown]

Draft is hard to predict. Like this year, it is likely the H.S. players slip and Painter is there at 13, just as we had our choice of the H.S. pitchers in the past draft. If I was betting over/under I'd certainly bet fewer than 6 of top 15 picks being H.S. kids.

[andyb]

Whether there are fewer HS kids drafted high probably depends on whether we get a full HS season this year. If we don't, the unknown factor will push kids like Abel lower in the draft. But if we have a normal season starting in March, we might very well see a typical distribution. I do wonder if there will be more junior college kids that rise off good performances this year. The JC class should have some extra HS talents from last year that were unable to show off in their senior HS year.

[bigegypt0417]

Do you think HS kids will get pushed down due to fewer rounds again this year?

[andyb]

If the draft is 20 rounds it will certainly decrease the number of fliers selected from the HS ranks. If they raise that a little then I think it will be more normal. Most teams will probably draft only 4-6 HS players out of 20 with most of that in the slotted top 10 rounds. Undrafted players can get only $20K but I guess that means rounds 11-20 can still get overslot bonuses like in the past if there are savings in the top 10 rounds.

In general I think slightly fewer HS players will get drafted, but that is more because of the new system where MLB really wants to push more development to the colleges with shorter drafts and no short season A ball. If teams can only have a certain number of players under contract in the US (180 this year, maybe 150 later on) then it is harder to carry the marginal HS project for 3 extra years.

[Squire]

Just FYI, I saw someone (a reporter) say fairly definitively that the draft would be 25 rounds but I went looking for confirmation elsewhere and didn’t find it.