2021 Draft News & Speculation

zambonir 2020-09-20 17:25:45 UTC #21

If that's reallly the case, they would be making a big payroll cut. If so they probably shouldn't sign JT.

But if they are going to have the same payroll, you are subtracting $25 + $14 + $11.5 in Arrieta, Didi and Robertson. $50.5 million (5 million less in actual money, rather than CBT AAV). Keeping JT will only add $10-13 million. They are barely good enough to go .500 this year, if they can't spend to the tax for the next two years there's no point in re-signing a mega free agent.

There are other ways to save money of course. Trades. A few non-tenders, though there are going to be unavoidable arbitration raises too.

fish 2020-09-27 02:56:08 UTC #22

Phillies will pick #13 in 2021.

fish 2020-09-27 05:28:13 UTC #23

I stand corrected, Gabe can still rob us of that in the last game if the giants lose and the Phillies win. Nola really seems like he should be a big game pitcher, but his September record says otherwise.

zambonir 2020-09-27 06:49:15 UTC #24

hey, Wheeler went what, 7 plus 1 batter, not a quality start, and we still lost to a bullpen?

But I'd certainly rather make the playoffs than pick 13th instead of 14th or 15th or whatever. 8th or 9th would be a different story.

teabag259 2020-09-27 21:31:12 UTC #25

So where will we be be drafting in June?

zambonir 2020-09-27 22:48:35 UTC #26

Technically we don't know, since it's not guaranteed the draft will be conducted normally (it's also not in June).

andyb 2020-09-27 22:50:27 UTC #27

We have the 13th worst record for what it's worth.

zambonir 2020-09-27 22:51:53 UTC #28

And if they average out last season and this one not much changes, since we were 15th. Though that small downtick would be an additional irony.

flyers19rw 2020-10-12 23:17:43 UTC #29

It’s official. The Phillies have the #13 pick.

Squire 2020-10-13 12:13:34 UTC #30

MLB Draft Order for 2021:
1. Pittsburgh Pirates
2. Texas Rangers
3. Detroit Tigers
4. Boston Red Sox
5. Baltimore Orioles
6. Arizona Diamondbacks
7. Kansas City Royals
8. Colorado Rockies
9. Los Angeles Angels
10. New York Mets
11. Washington Nationals
12. Seattle Mariners
13. Philadelphia Phillies
14. San Francisco Giants
15. Milwaukee Brewers
16. Miami Marlins
17. Cincinnati Reds
18. St. Louis Cardinals
19. Toronto Blue Jays
20. New York Yankees
21. Chicago Cubs
22. Chicago White Sox
23. Cleveland Indians
24. Atlanta Braves
25. Oakland Athletics
26. Minnesota Twins
27. San Diego Padres
28. Tampa Bay Rays
29. Los Angeles Dodgers

Houston pick forfeited

A year out but it looks like a very good draft. Logically it should be a little deeper in Rounds 6-10 with college seniors since this year's draft was abbreviated.

I'm deadly serious but I think the best use of the Phillies payroll flexibility is to QO both Realmuto and Gregorius

andyb 2020-10-13 13:17:45 UTC #31

Completely agree there. It would be a nice year to have 2 extra picks for financial flexibility through the 10th round. I think they are keeping the $20,000 bonuses for undrafted players and potentially for non-slotted picks (though they may not have articulated all of that yet).

Besides being deeper, there will also be players that have been seen less by scouts. Consequently there will be more good talents that slip back in the draft as some teams go for safer picks.

Squire 2020-10-13 13:50:18 UTC #32

I have no doubt they will give Realmuto a QO because there is no way he would ever take it. The only reason to NOT give Gregorious a QO is the possibility he would take it and then you give in and overpay to keep Realmuto and are right up against the tax. But I legit don't care. I have zero confidence that the the Phillies spending 19 million on something other than Gregorious in 2021 would make them better than just spending the 19 million on one year of Gregorius. So I'd QO them both. I'm in the minority but I'd rather Gregorious back on a 1 year deal then agree to a 5 year 25 million dollar contract to Realmuto. Realmuto will be 30 next season.

andyb 2020-10-13 15:10:08 UTC #33

And getting Gregorius back on a 1-year deal is not bad even if it is a slight overpay. He had a good year last year and a 1-year deal is about as low risk as one can get in baseball. He also has much more of a track record than Hellickson who fell apart after his deal. One year deals are great for teams.

I think he still probably declines also.

flyers19rw 2020-10-13 15:33:57 UTC #34

Sure QO Didi to open the door for a longer term deal if necessary. There has to be a deal out there to be made. He's a good player but will be 31 years old next season. His prime seasons are behind him. Last year he was the sixth highest paid player at SS making $14M. Bogarts ($20); Lindor (17.5); Andrus (15,25); Crawford-SF (15.2) and Simmons (15) were ahead of him. Of those five, a case could be made for only the top two being ahead of him in performance at this stage of their careers, Bogarts and Lindor, with Andrus and Simmons being more or less equal to Didi. Giving him some term at near his current rate of salary should be enough to make a deal. Of course the fly in the ointment is the potential work stoppage in 2022.

allentown 2020-10-13 15:41:10 UTC #35

Phillies need to QO both and should be pleased if either accepts the offer. If they refuse, the comp picks go at least a little way towards easing the loss going forward, if not for 2021. I don't want a long-term deal for Didi now. That's probably a serious overpay for his declining years and something I don't think we should do until we see Kingery and Stott play next year to find out how desperate we should be.

julio 2020-10-13 15:59:03 UTC #36

Disagree. QO Didi, yes - but not to open the door to a longer-term deal. QO him because we can use him for one more year if he agrees, and because we get a comp pick if he doesn't. He played at age 30 this year. Do we want his age 31-35 seasons? Age 31, sure. Long-term? I don't think I do.

Philsmania 2020-10-13 16:19:13 UTC #37

I thought I read somewhere that next year's free agent class is supposed to be a banner one for shortstops. Hence, the iron may be hotter for Gregorius this winter than it may be next year. That may lead him to declining the QO.

bkeich 2020-10-13 16:33:29 UTC #38

Kinda depends on the price. Didi as a starter at 32 and a backup at 33-35 isnt the worse thing that could happen at the right price.

We dont really have a young SS coming up that is a near sure bet (Stott, maybe).

The simple fact is that this team is in such dire need of talent and starting players that we might have to sign someone like Didi. We literally have 2 starters that I am sure of right now, 3B and RF (and one of those doesnt have a long track record, and might have a sophomore slump). C, 1B, 2B, SS, CF and LF are all barren, we have Kingery, who might just be a utility player, and.... (Hoskins, maybe, Haseley, not looking promising, etc).

Funny part is we had a pretty good offense this season, but next season and the future is very up in the air at this point. Our Minor Leagues appear to be providing little if any assistance, so we have to get players from somewhere.

mdougherty12 2020-10-13 16:43:20 UTC #39

Next year’s SS class has a lot of talent, subject to change with extensions, injuries, etc.

Philsmania 2020-10-13 17:25:15 UTC #40

Has Luis Garcia fallen from the prospect ranks?