2021 Draft News & Speculation

[andyb]

No time like the present to talk next year's draft! Looks like it will be delayed to July (remember no short season teams) and limited to 20 rounds. If someone is a BA subscriber there is something about how they will set the draft order in the article.

https://twitter.com/CarlosACollazo/status/1300505811651825668

[allentown]

Good news. 20 rounds is far, far better than 5. I'll check BA. It says no change in draft order at this time, but that Commissioner retains that authority.

[zambonir]

I don't have BA, is this really official? I assumed MLB wouldn't exercise its right to do whatever they want until the off-season (and the resolution of the minor league stuff. But I guess the writing is on the wall).

[andyb]

A little more here:

2021 draft to be held during July's All-Star events

20 rounds not set. Just needs to be 20-30. Same bonus rules as in 2020 with only $20,000 to undrafted players. Unclear if slots will work as in the past with slots for the top 10 and then a pool with flexibility for rounds 11-20/30. Bonus deferrals over $100K.

I don't mind the timing. Sounds like drafted players will not play much. Maybe the complex leagues will start before the draft and be a bit different with a slightly higher level of play (all those GCL players who go to Williamsport would essentially be the new GCL).

[zambonir]

More exciting TV content for julio!

A number of benefits for clubs and the league arise from moving the draft. Holding it at the All-Star Game -- in conjunction with the Futures Game and after the College World Series -- allows the league to own the marketing and promotion of all of the young stars, likely having many of them on hand when the league gathers for the Midsummer Classic.

In addition, a bigger gap between the end of most amateur seasons and the draft allows MLB to create more programming, such as high school and college showcases, games, and leagues, in addition to a medical combine, all geared toward getting information to clubs before they make their selections.

[Philsmania]

Is it a done deal that the NY-PL and similarly-situated leagues will be liquidated?

[zambonir]

Right now it's still more of an inevitability than a done deal. And the way things have progressed since the pandemic began have only made it moreso. I think this was the last update:

Minor League Baseball Changes Negotiating Teams

Some teams that have been marked for death may survive simply because other teams go out of business because of the pandemic, but it would have to all sync up with leagues and affiliations. I think the one thing we can say for sure is the short-season leagues as we know them will no longer exist, and affiliated baseball will be leaving most but not all of those markets. How those teams/leagues/markets continue, and with what level of support from MLB if any, remains unknown (that original plan to turn the left-out leagues into, essentially, a reality show for UDFAs might be off the table but there was still talk of MLB providing economic support to what would not be independent ball).

Could still be huge changes to come, even in that MLBTR/BA thing they continue to raise the possiblity that MLB would walk away and just start over, or that they end up running the actual MiLB entity.

[fish]

Phillies currently #15 in the 2021 draft order. A good old fashion philly September crash and burn and #11 is a real possibility. Heck, even finishing below the orioles is in range

[zambonir]

finally, the best part of the season!

[bigegypt0417]

Could the phillies get in to the top 10?

[andyb]

Remember that MLB has not set the draft order yet. It probably won't matter much for the Phillies if they are near .500 again, but I would not be shocked if they averaged the past two winning percentages. Let's not reward the Red Sox for a purposeful 60-game tank of a season.

[zambonir]

I absolutely still want this team to make the playoffs. Last year some people wanted a winning record more than a draft pick and I saw no point in that. But even going to LA and getting swept in two games would be a good experience for the players, most of whom have never been to the postseason... and also motivation. In a season like this it's almost like a college football bowl game - just getting another four days of practice and competition is useful. I may not think you need guys who already "know how to win" but it something you can learn, even if it's just about the mundane rhythms of preparation (though that doesn't really apply this season).

Plus, you still never know...

[fish]

Remember that MLB has not set the draft order yet. It probably won't matter much for the Phillies if they are near .500 again, but I would not be shocked if they averaged the past two winning percentages. Let's not reward the Red Sox for a purposeful 60-game tank of a season.

I tried to research that a little more, and as far as I could discern they would keep the same protocol (picking in reverse order of standings) unless the season was cut short. I think we're past that point.

[zambonir]

We just don't really know. It's been reported/speculated nothing will change, but not confirmed, and Manfred still has total discretion.

Inbox: Draft order, Braves southpaws, more

[Squire]

Refresh my recollection but is the comp pick system still in place ( if we lose JTR)

[zambonir]

Pretty sure that part is locked in (it came up during negotiations over restart but I don't think it's at Manfred's discretion now).

I would probably QO Didi too. If either of them take the offer, all the better. A bit more $ for Didi but worth the trade-off for years.

[bkeich]

QOing Didi is an interesting idea, honestly I would hope he declines, but seriously doubt he would. It is paying a premium price for a solid player, but it doesn’t fill an important gaping hole in the 2021, I think it isn’t a terrible idea.

Like I said, I would prefer he declines and we get a nice extra pick, but I can’t see that happening.

I would probably prefer a 1-2 year commitment to DiDi so overall I like the idea.

[andyb]

The QO is about living with a slight overpay for a 1-year deal with the reward being a potential compensation pick if he declines. Didi certainly wants a longer term deal (3 years?). It is probably not in the Phillies' interest to give him that since they have the 1 year option at around $18 million.

Wealthier teams can afford making qualifying offers. We should do it (and don't believe for a second the team is losing $145 million this year. They are probably losing money, but the accountants can pick a number out of thin air for a press release when they are letting staff go).

[zambonir]

That they are purportedly losing big money is the x factor. But the best possible scenario would be that all teams are losing money, and so wary of the unknowns (both gate revenue in 2021 and labor war in 2022) that the FA market isn't as strong as players hope, even given the Betts contract.

There's enough money coming off the books (Arrieta + Robertson) to accomodate a starting pitcher, a Didi QO and a JT contract (given he and Didi already take up a chunk of payroll now) but it would once again come at the expense of the bullpen without some creativity or non-tenders (Velasquez?) or willingness to pay the tax.

I think we'll probably trade for a starting pitcher, in addition to a free agent. Which one of those is the higher level guy depends on Howard's prognosis. But we might be able to move Segura or even Cutch in a deal for a starting pitcher with a similar contract, or consider trading Haseley or Kingery if it's for someone cheaper/better.

Absolutely we shouldn't let Didi go for nothing (I assume JT is a given) and QOs also depress the market. We also shouldn't be signing any QO FAs ourselves, which is another reason keeping JT is so important (because if we lose him they'll need offense and will want to make a splash. It's a thin class though).

[nycphils]

If they want to keep JT, assuming they won’t drop the payroll, the IF will almost certainly need to be Segura at SS and Kingery at 2B or vice versa. Rotation will have to be Nola/Wheeler/Eflin with Howard if healthy or a couple of projects, maybe including VV. They just aren’t going to have money with no fans.