2021 Draft News & Speculation

[andyb]

Interesting discussion on the draft, 2021 and future here. Nothing has been announced yet but it looks like it will be 20 rounds and then some sort of fixed bonus for NDFAs after that, though no decision on the size of that bonus ($20K or $125K or something in between). One idea was a bonus 5-round draft for players in the draft league where those picks would get a slightly higher bonus as part of their incentive to play in that league.

I do hope they go back to the flexible pools where excess dollars can be used to sign picks beyond the 10th round (or NDFAs).

How Will Teams Approach This Year’s Draft?

[fish]

Keith Law's ranking list is out. He doesn't have Jud Fabian or Andrew Painter on the top 30.

He's got pitchability left Jordan Wicks from Kansas State ranked #13, thankfully that doesn't seem like Brian Barber's MO.

[andyb]

I am not sure we can say what the tendencies for Barber in a draft are yet. I get the feeling last year was a little more of a reach for high ceiling targets (Abel and Martin) because of the unique nature of the draft year. Unique in that maybe he thought those guys were undervalued because if they had actually played full seasons in 2020 they likely would have impressed enough to raise their draft status. So one could make an argument that loud tools were cheaper last year - a value play.

Previously the Yankees had more of a college-based skill rather than tool emphasis. Now that may not have all been Barber, but it is just another data point. I do like the fact that we seemed to be aggressive with all those NDFAs and a number of them seemed like ones that might have cost $100K-$200K in a normal draft year. But even there we might have been aggressive since the cost was only $20K.

I liked last year's draft but I am not sure it gives much insight into what we will do this year.

[bigegypt0417]

it seems like Law always has a couple of guys off his list that everyone else has...I havent seen much where painter is outside the tp 15.

[schillingfan]

I don’t remember, what is the Phillies pick this year. Yes I could look it up, but it’s easier to ask people, who already know the answer.

[LoneStarPhan]

I'll try to answer without looking it up. I think it was Abel, a pitcher.

Someone will give the confirming or correction information, I'm sure.

It is, of course, very important for the Phillies to make a selection this season that turns out to be a true major leaguer in a couple years. They need to hit on a couple more top ten picks as well to bring the system into the top half.

[andyb]

The Phillies pick 13th which was why fish was noting the person ranked 13th by Keith Law. Of course that is not a mock draft. Those will come a bit later as teams start to give more clues as to who they are interested in.

[schillingfan]

Thanks, I thought it was 13th, but wasn’t sure. LSP, I’ve not slipped that far into dementia to forget the name of last year’s 1st round pick. Maybe pre-Cole Hamel!

[LoneStarPhan]

Sorry, SF, I misread your post.

[fish]

The pitching in the draft this year is unbelievable. This is heck of a year for pitching. Thank goodness they have a second round pick.

Jack Leiter, Kumar Rocker, and and Texas RHP Ty Madden look like absolute studs,

HS SS Jordan Lawler has a chance to be the first position prospect off the board.

Louisville Catcher Henry Davis looks like he's a top 10 now- great arm, all fields approach with power. He just 'looks' like a good catcher.

The draftboards are high on Miami C Arian del Castillo, but he's not going to be a catcher and while he looks like a good hitting prospect, I'm not that excited about a guy without a position.

I'm not excited by UCLS SS Matt McClain, but he still seems to rank as an 10-15 guy.

Marcelo Mayer is a California HS SS that was really undersized and lacking strength last year- he's still ranked as an early first rounder, but unless he's put on some serious muscle I don't see it.

Ole Miss RHP Gunnar Hoglund looks like a mid-first round guy. Real good stuff but his delivery bothers me.

LSU RHP Jaden Hill has great stuff, but I'm leery of his delivery and consistency. I'd bet he's a 15-20 guy.

NJ Highschool LHP Anthony Solometo has delivery and stuff that looks like a cross between Baumgardner and Gore, but not real good size and probably a back of the first round guy. .

Same for NJ Highschool RHP Chase Petty- the 100 mph fastball and breaking ball are undeniable. I'm not a fan of the max effort delivery though.

My favorites for the Phils-

Indiana RHP McCade Brown has a great body and electric fastball and a spin rate power curve that dreams are made of. Absolutely filthy. He may be a guy that burns bright and fast before blowing out, but i'd take it.

BC OF Sal Frelick should be gone before #13, but as an undersized northeast college player there's a chance he slips. The short bat to ball power looks identical to Dustin Pedroia, with the same dirtbag makeup to love as well.

Wake Forest RHP Ryan Cusick is the closest thing to looking like Curt Schilling i've seen since Schilling- same body, same release, and the fastball looks the same too. Not the pinpoint command and splitter of course, but pretty good curve.

Highschool RPH Andrew Painter's stock seems to have slipped, but I don't see a dip in his stuff now. Real big boy but looks like an 'athletic' big that won't get fat. easy power stuff and nice delivery and track record. I like Mick Abel better, but not dissimilar guys.

[Squire]

Officially announced that the draft will be 20 rounds last night. Slot values and pools also announced. Phillies have the 16th largest draft pool.

[andyb]

I'd venture that MLB wants this to be permanent with the smaller minor league systems. Maybe 20 rounds in the regular draft and 10 if they ever get an international draft going. Then prospects beyond that play in the draft league and all but a handful go away to indy ball after that.

Remember draftees probably do not play their draft year, so MLB is really offloading the cost of that extra affiliate on others and likely as a result there will be fewer longshots that make MLB. I imagine they will continue to rein in the pool spending, because if pools continue to increase as revenues did, teams would probably try to game it with extra money to undrafted players beyond the pool. I am assuming MLB will use shaky pandemic logic to cap bonuses after the 20 rounds again, hopefully not at quite so punitive a level as last year ($20,000). Though I guess the Phillies were among the best at gaming last year's system. Jake McKenna is a name I think will start making Phillies top prospect lists next offseason.

[fish]

I'd venture that MLB wants this to be permanent with the smaller minor league systems. Maybe 20 rounds in the regular draft and 10 if they ever get an international draft going. Then prospects beyond that play in the draft league and all but a handful go away to indy ball after that.

Given how many guys they are blocking out of the draft system, I would assume the draft league will have a sizable talent pool. It stands to reason each summer there are going to be pop-up guys in high demand that will warrant a bonus that teams should have to compete for. If mlb is going to deny them an opportunity via the draft, the only fair thing to do is to give the guys that increase their stock in the draft league a chance to negotiate a market price. I think they should establish a separate draft pool budget $500k or something for those guys. $20k shouldn't/wouldn't be enough to sign a guy who's made a name for himself in the draft league instead of re-entering the draft next year (unless they are a senior). Then again, maybe mlb doesn't want them to sign now and add the extra bodies to milb and prefers they come out in the draft next year. Any smart team wouldn't think that way, but the commissioner seems to.

[Patchmk88]

Yea Davis is a lot like former UL catcher and current Dodger Will Smith. An excellent hitter and very good behind the plate.

[zambonir]

The "draft league" is supposed to be so players with low stock can get drafted that same season, but I think it's still a pro league, i.e. any college kid who plays in it will have already exhausted his eligibility (or if he hasn't, has now forfeited it by playing in the league). There's no waiting for the next draft.

It hardly seems necessary with the pool system and presumed bonuses already in place, but otherwise I bet the draft league contract would also lock in the terms of your deal.

Indy ball pays so poorly that trying that league and/or taking the capped UDFA deal to be part of a system is still going to be an easy call for these guys.

[andyb]

This article from a few weeks ago has some useful discussion around these issues.

How Will Teams Approach This Year’s Draft?

[Squire]

Good post. Appreciate the analysis. Also don't like the Petty delivery at all. I'm not sure what to like at 13 in another draft with less than full information. I might be inclined to lean towards upside and hope that a new Dombrowski regime might actually be able to develop it.

[bkox]

Brutal news for #LSU baseball. Jaden Hill, considered a potential top-10 MLB pick, is out for the rest of the season with a torn UCL.

LSU baseball's poor luck with pitching injuries continues for another year.

— Brody Miller ( @BrodyAMiller ) April 5, 2021

[gmwannabe]

He wasn't having a successful year as it was. Maybe it has been bothering him for a while. Too bad. Worth taking a flier on in a later draft pick? or will he go back for a senior year.
gm

[gmwannabe]

If he is still there in the second round, i'd be willing to trade Tom Sutera and Nate Fassnacht to move up and pick him.
gm