2021 Draft News & Speculation

bigegypt0417 2021-07-09 01:33:40 UTC #202

Kiley McDaniel is on the phillies game 9n ESPN and has them taking Montgomery...his comp was a higher ceiling hunter pence...

allentown 2021-07-09 03:22:11 UTC #203

A fairly highly regarded prospect, but his calling cards of speed, athleticism, and OF defense sound too similar to way too many athletic H.S. position players we have taken in the first round and who bombed. It's just not the sort of player we have had any success drafting in the first round. Not reading that he's a plus hitter. Combining value and need, I still like Wicks as our first rounder. If he's still on the board, I'd follow with another college lefty Bush and if he's gone collegiate catcher Mat Nelson. Please, stick with college guys with the top pick. If the Phillies love Yhoswar Garcia as much as they claim they do, why pick a two year younger similar guy in the first round. Read an article boosting Chase Petty, if he falls to 13. Now there is an awful demographic: short right-handed pitcher in the top half of first round. The media are really pushing the local kids, although Montgomery is what Baseball America described as a "Phillies-type first rounder" talking prior to our taking one of our many H.S. highly athletic bombs.

andyb 2021-07-09 11:33:48 UTC #204

Keith Law mock has the Phillies taking Ty Madden (college RHP from Texas). Notes Dombrowski has tended to go for college picks (though of course we don't really know how much DD is driving the selection process here).

fish 2021-07-09 11:57:13 UTC #205

I’m pretty gun-shy about that profile too, it the one thing I’m confident in about Montgomery is that when he’s physically mature he is going to really stand out on the pro field. Whatever Anthony Hewitt looked like in a workout was never apparent in a game- Montgomery isn’t going to have that problem. It’s just going to be a question of is his ceiling Joc Pederson, or a star?

I’ve talked myself out of Painter- I love the build, pedigree, and combination of current stuff and projectability, but it doesn’t look like any of his pitches would be elite even with a bump in velo, so why not take a college guy who has the current stuff instead?

I like Madden but I’ve come to realize ECU rhp Gavin Williams is better - 95+ fastball, strong build, really good slider, and I think better command. With an improved change up he could shoot to the moon.

Squire 2021-07-09 12:26:27 UTC #206

Really seems like nobody has any idea who we like. I like what Barber did last year so I'm staying optimistic.

flyers19rw 2021-07-09 12:40:44 UTC #207

Last night on the MLB channel, Pedro Martinez discussed several pitching candidates predicted to be at the top of the draft. He pointed out flaws that each of them had with their mechanics that negatively affected their pitching. His point was that what these guys are or could be will all depend on the instruction that they get post draft. Some guys get it and improve; others don’t. It all gets down to development.

Squire 2021-07-09 13:17:35 UTC #208

I think there are only 7 guys who I feel confident will definitely be gone before 13

Marcelo Mayer
Jordan Lawlar
Brady House
Kahlil Watson
Kumar Rocker
Jack Leiter
Henry Davis

That leaves the following who might be there at 13
HS Hitters - Montgomery, Ford, Taylor, Chandler
College Hitters - Frelick, Cowser, McClain
HS Pitchers - Jobe, Painter
College Pitchers - Madden, Bachman, Wicks, Hoglund, Bednar, McGreevey, Cusick

zambonir 2021-07-09 13:24:00 UTC #209

Is there any scenario where "Joc Pederson" isn't an absolute slam-dunk result, given both #13 and recent Phillies history?

gmwannabe 2021-07-09 14:38:14 UTC #210

one day, possibly 2 until the most read thread the year (i think, maybe Minor league?) is started. "2021 Draft & Signing Results". Can't wait for the results and following discussions!!
gm

flyers19rw 2021-07-09 14:45:42 UTC #211

The Dodgers did a similar thing in drafting Walker Buehler. That worked out pretty well for them. It's a roll of the dice but then all draftees are.

fish 2021-07-09 15:41:01 UTC #212

Sure! A big part is going to be developing the guy, which the Phillies are awful at-, but there is still a little luck in getting a great prospect. Given Brian Barber's very short but very promising track record, he might be the one guy I have the most faith in the organization at the moment. Granted, we could be trying to run him out of town after Monday,

bkox 2021-07-09 15:49:12 UTC #213

Poor Joc Peterson.. a man who has produced more WAR than any Phillies position player draft pick since Michael Bourn in 2003.

Squire 2021-07-09 15:55:31 UTC #214

This guy is a blogger but I have found him to be pretty good in the past. His board is a little different than BA or MLB.com right now.

andyb 2021-07-09 16:25:21 UTC #215

The issue with taking a guy whose ceiling is Joc Pederson is not whether that would be good value at the 13th pick. It would if the player developed to their potential. The problem is when you draft a guy with a 50% chance of making it as a Joc Pederson type and a 50% chance of NOT making it at all (though injury or other developmental issues).

It was a bit of a problem with Haseley where he was always a high floor/low ceiling type of guy. Maybe his ultimate profile is more Andrew Benintendi than Joc Pederson, but right now we are staring at the 50% chance of Haseley not really making it and becoming a player like Benintendi.

Squire 2021-07-09 17:15:13 UTC #216

fish - assuming that the 4 HS position players (Mayer, Lawlar, House, Watson), the 2 college pitchers (Rocker and Leiter) and the one college hitter (Davis) go 1-7.....how would the next 10 players on your board stack up? I like your instincts

bigegypt0417 2021-07-09 17:54:05 UTC #217

When you build your entire narrative on players who have essentially never lived up to expectations, you will never be disappointed when they disappoint.

Also building your idea of the phillies development abilities based on people who aren't here anymore and about a years worth of information is also a way to be disappointed.

fish 2021-07-09 18:00:24 UTC #218

8-9 Jobe and Colton Cowser (I don't like him that early, but I think he goes this early)
10-14 Gavin Williams, Frelick, Montgomery, Ford, Madden
15-19 Bachman, Bednar, McClain, Solometo, Abbott

andyb 2021-07-09 18:28:20 UTC #219

Uh, what narrative? I was only pointing out that comparing the result of the 13th pick to an average major leaguer is ignoring the risk of even developing that average major leaguer. Sometimes average major leaguers can be signed as free agents. What does Joc Pederson really do that Andrew McCutchen doesn't do even in his older free agent years?

A huge problem with the Phillies in the 180s and 1990s was drafting low ceiling players. Then recently was a huge push for hit tool guys like Randolph and Haseley and Moniak that really has not worked out well. I prefer drafting some guys with tools that could be stars that might also have a larger chance of failure. If you disagree with that, state your reasons why. Just saying Joc Pederson would be a good outcome is really a nothing comment because the reality is do we want a 50% of Joc Pederson succeeding or 25% chance of someone who might be an All Star (like a Jo Adell). Maybe worry less about other people's supposed narratives and more about justifying your own point whatever that is.

Squire 2021-07-09 18:35:37 UTC #220

Andrew Abbott LHP from UVA?

fish 2021-07-09 18:43:44 UTC #221

yeah, I think some team really likes him enough to take him in the first round. Though may be later to the A's or Rays