2021 Draft News & Speculation

[bkox]

In the first 50 years of the draft. (1965-2014) 21 of the 50 #13 picks never made the majors. (42% failure rate)

Best ever by WAR: Manny Ramirez 69.1 WAR

only 8 of the 50 (16%) reached 10 bWAR (2 more could reach it)

5 of the 29 that reached the major had a negative WAR including the worst being Phillies pick in John Russell in 1982 (-3.2bWAR)

[andyb]

ESPN 2-round mock. Benny Montgomery with the top pick as mentioned on the game last night. Ethan Wilson South Alabama LF in the 2nd round at 49. No idea if there is any info that the Phillies are considering him of course. 44 on his list. Good power, limited to LF on defense. Luke Holman is on the just missed the top 200 list suggesting he needs a top 5 round bonus (or a bit more), which sounds like something in the $400K range.

2021 MLB Mock Draft 3.0: Kiley McDaniel predicts the first two rounds

[bigegypt0417]

Uh, what narrative? I was only pointing out that comparing the result of the 13th pick to an average major leaguer is ignoring the risk of even developing that average major leaguer. Sometimes average major leaguers can be signed as free agents. What does Joc Pederson really do that Andrew McCutchen doesn't do even in his older free agent years?

So you were pointing out that sometimes draft picks don't develop and don't work out?

And that sometimes lower draft picks work out better than higher draft picks?

Andrew McCutchen was a successful first round pick and was picked 11th.

Pederson was picked in the 11th round which makes him a VERY successful draft pick.

[Squire]

New BA Mock Draft

1. Pirates - Marcelo Mayer, SS, HS
2. Rangers - Jordan Lawlar, SS, HS
3. Tigers - Jackson Jobe, RHP, HS
4. Red Sox - Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt
5. Orioles, - Kahlil Watson, SS, HS
6. DBacks - Henry Davis, C, Louisville
7. Royals - Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt
8. Rockies - Brady House, SS, HS
9. Angels - Will Taylor, OF, HS
10. Mets - Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College
11. Nationals - Ty Madden, RHP, UTexas
12. Mariners - Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State
13. PHILLIES - ANDREW PAINTER, RHP, HS

We still hear the Phillies tied to local product Benny Montgomery, but we’ve also heard them linked to prep righthander Andrew Painter. Perhaps that’s just sources looking at what they did last year with Mick Abel and thinking they would feel comfortable enough with the demographic to double up on first round prep righties, but his talent fits in this spot and we believe there’s real interest. Alternatively, it wouldn’t be surprising for them to go after a hard-throwing collegian like Madden if he’s available, or Bachman.

[andyb]

You are just missing the point completely. Somebody said that we should aim for something better than Joc Pederson with the 13th pick. Somebody else said if the pick developed into Joc Pederson we should be happy. All I did was point out that no lower ceiling picks are guaranteed to develop (like Haseley!!!!!).

Not sure why you have a problem with any of this and start assuming I have a narrative. The points you are making are kind of obvious and tell absolutely nothing of what you think about any of these potential picks. Tell us what pick you would prefer and why. That is why we are here.

[gmwannabe]

Hmmm.. Painter:wink:

[andyb]

Athletic draft preview really does not tell us much of anything other than the typical "DD and Barber are aligned in their thinking". Some interesting notes about how Gowdy is or is not seen as a prospect these days.

Five years after Phillies' Mickey Moniak draft class, a review and preview of...

[Dirk41]

The Phillies as an organization will be better when Moniak is somewhere else so they don't have to continue to have this conversation.

[allentown]

PHILLIES - ANDREW PAINTER, RHP, HS

I'm fine with Painter as our pick. We've had our share and more of success with first round HS pitchers. I'd still prefer a top, preferably, college pitcher.

[zambonir]

Perhaps in the next three weeks.

[allentown]

Totally disagree. I don't think you get value for him in a trade. Just a humiliation dump. He can provide value very soon as a 4th or 5th OF -- not a lot of value, but some. I think it's good for the organization to have to look at and study it's past failures. A lot of different decision makers in the last two decades, but "the Phillies Way' seems to continue in many ways, perhaps because parts of the same ownership group have continued and passed along the way things are done to the new crew. We won the 2008 championship and had strength for a half decade, precisely because we did draft extremely well in the first round and were able to develop talent. Something seriously wrong happened after that. Between the horrors of the Giles era and the post-2011 failings, the Phillies did some things very right on the draft/development front. The team needs to understand the reasons for its own prolonged periods of failure and success a lot more than it needs to chase the latest fad. Without the self knowledge, fad chasing is futile. It's the blind hiring the blind or at least the totally inexperienced, who then join a failing organization which is totally uuable to provide on-the-job training. Having MacPhail as the top dog in an org of reactive fad chasers was ludicrous.

As the posted article says about knowing how good this years draft was 5 or 6 years from now, that's almost as long as it takes (perhaps more like 3-4 years) to know if the Phillies have finally gotten their baseball side management/scouting/development professional staff right.

[zambonir]

I certainly hope Moniak does find his way to being a viable major league OF - even just a bench OF - but right now his arc seems more likely to follow Nick Williams. He'll either languish on the major league bench next year, or stay in LHV until he hits his way to a call-up. He certainly isn't showing any signs of seizing regular playing time (especially if they really think he's not a CF). If that worst-case is the case, his trade value is higher than it will ever be (even if it's not high). And the same probably goes for Haseley.

Yeah, it's super-important to get more starters on the roster who are homegrown and inexpensive, but what we've wound up getting from Williams and Quinn and Kingery and Haseley you can also get from minor league free agents and lower-ceiling prospects and the Brad Millers of the world.

I think we all agree that the Phillies aren't close to being an all-in team. But an all-in team would be listening on Howard, Stott, and a few other prospects (supposedly before the season started only Abel and I think Rojas were untouchable?). They should not do that, but making deals with some combo of low-A lottery tix and tarnished AAA players seems more possible. A team that doesn't plan to contend in 2022 could make Moniak a starter. The Phillies probably won't unless Dombrowski really shifts direction this off-season.

[bkeich]

What do you see other than his draft pick slot that makes anyone think he is on the verge of being a ML OF.

He couldn’t hit ML pitching this year.
He can’t hit AAA pitching. He is up to a mighty .685 OPS only because of an odd HR total which is not sustainable by his previous stats.

My guess is he is much closer to bagging groceries than contributing to a ML roster.

[allentown]

I don't see why the HR total isn't sustainable. The Phillies have focused upon increasing his power, seemingly at the expense of contact.

[Purduke]

What do you think about Kopps? I know about the age and 55 FB, but god the placement and control on that slider is beautiful. Shut him down this year and stop the starter\closer crap, maybe he's +3 or 4 in a relief role next year in High A\AA... You look at a HS picture vs now and it looks like his post TJ regimen added six inches to his chest and 3 to each of his thighs. Bulldog, whats-the-team-need mentality.

If he's there in the third round I'd be tempted; fourth done deal.

[fish]

What do you think about Kopps? I know about the age and 55 FB, but god the placement and control on that slider is beautiful.

He’s interesting, he can probably make it to the bigs as a reliever. His slider and curves look like big league pitches but college hitting makes him look better. Once he starts to see advanced hitting in pro ball the easy results won’t come as often. But a 24 years old with a TJ who will live off his breaking ball? That feels like a 5th round or later guy.

[zambonir]

I don't see how it matters whether it's sustainable or not, or even if it can be replicated in MLB. That OPS still isn't going to get him to the majors, especially with the OBP.

By all means, I hope he has a second half that changes the conversation. One of several things that jumped out at me in that Athletic article is a reminder that all teams put a "prospect" or "non-prospect" grade on players in other systems. They were talking about Gowdy, but it would be interesting to wonder how many teams rate Moniak, and where.

Evaluators from other teams are divided on Gowdy, 23, but there is a consensus that he has at least regained some prospect shine. His fastball has reached 97 mph. It sits 94 to 96 mph. He’s shown an above-average changeup, in the evaluation of two rival scouts, with a slider that needs refinement. Not all are convinced: At least two teams have resisted putting a prospect grade back on Gowdy. He is, nonetheless, more interesting now.

[Squire]

Callis and Mayo did updated Mocks overnight

Callis
1. Pirates - Mayer
2. Rangers - Leiter
3. Tigers - Jobe
4. Red Sox - Davis
5. Orioles - Watson
6. DBacks - Lawlar
7. Royals - House
8. Rockies - Madden
9. Angels - Rocker
10. Mets - Frelick
11. Nationals - Bednar
12. Mariners - Ford
13. Phillies - MONTGOMERY (Believed to be the floor for Montgomery, the Phillies could turn to another super-athletic outfielder (Taylor) if the Rockies take the former. Chandler is another high-ceiling prep option, the college bats are also possibilities and this is the ceiling for Wake Forest right-hander Ryan Cusick)

Mayo -
1. Pirates - Mayer
2. Rangers - Leiter
3. Tigers - House
4. Red Sox - Davis
5. Orioles - Watson
6. DBacks - Rocker
7. Royals - Lawlar
8. Rockies - Montgomery
9. Angels - Jobe
10. Mets - McCain
11. Nationals - Madden
12. Mariners - Frelick
13. Phillies - PAINTER (If they want to go high school arm, Painter’s the top choice. If they want to go college bat, they could look at Cowser. And if they decide to go the college arm route, Ryan Cusick could be in the mix.)

I give Barber credit...his guys don't tip their hand.

[Squire]

Mock Draft 3.0: The Morning Of

Interesting stuff from fangraphs. Gives us Montgomery but it appears to be the least supported association among picks.

Two non-first round picks the Phillies have been connected to are Alex Willis a HS RHP from CO and Jackson Merrill a HS SS from MD.

[bkox]

Perfect Game now mocks Painter to Phils, where they mention his connection to having played with Girardi's son in high school. They also say they might be looking for upside and mention Cowser and Benny here. These feel like the most consistent three names throughout the process https://t.co/qB99nlr5Eh

— Jeff Israel ( @JeffIsrael90 ) July 11, 2021