2020 Philadelphia Phillies Season News/Notes/Discussion

[andyb]

Looks like we are postponed tonight.

Phillies' Spencer Howard: Thursday's start postponed

I was looking forward to Scherzer-Howard.

[bigegypt0417]

Same here!

[andyb]

4-game series vs the Nats next week with no DHs, so imagine one of those becomes a split home/road DH. I'd think about keeping everyone on rotation but I bet they keep Wheeler going on 4-day rest Friday and move Howard to Saturday.

[teabag259]

I am thanking God daily for my 6’7 lefty 14 year old son. He throws well and if he works hard and stays healthy he probably will get baseball opportunities that others will not simply because of his lefthandedness (and his size).

[zambonir]

May he be the next Randy Johnson rather than the next Jeff Juden! (A righty, but the point remains).

[andyb]

My friend's kid is only 6'2" but he is left-handed and already has a commitment to TN already and he is just entering his junior high school season. Throws upper 80s now and his dad is 6'5".

[BostonRoss]

Regarding what one could expect from a #3 overall pick, I looked at the #3 picks from 1990 to 2010. There were 13 position players chosen. Six of them had career WAR over 10, including the three who are still active. Six had negative or zero WAR (meaning Bohm is already ahead of them). So it seems a # pick is about a 50/50 proposition to be a good MLB player (although 10 career.WAR is not really a star). Three of the players could be considered stars: Manny Machado, Evan Longoria, and Troy Glaus. Next best, at less than 2 WAR per season, are Jose Cruz Jr. (20 WAR in about 11 years)and Eric Hosmer (17 WAR in nine seasons before this year).

It would be hard for Bohm to have a career as good as Machado or Longoria without the necessary defense. I could see him as a Glaus. We would probably be disappointed if he were a Cruz or a Hosmer, but that would still be above average for a #3 pick.

The "average" #3 pick in that period is Mike Lieberthal.

[allentown]

Lieberthal was quite a worthwhile player.

[zambonir]

With the Giants losing twice on Thursday, the Phillies begin today as the NL's 8th playoff team.

[gmwannabe]

PTBNL-Alex Manasa. i'll take that one.

[phillychuck]

Link please. Or is this just speculation?

[andyb]

Getting back to the Phillies, it looks like they just skipped Howard in the rotation yesterday. There is no doubleheader against the Nats next week as they added it on the 22nd late in the season. Wheeler, Eflin, and Arrieta this weekend and back to Nola on Monday.

I guess they could use Howard for an inning tonight if they wanted to. Velasquez would not have a start theoretically until the doubleheader on the 8th, so he is probably available from the bullpen until at least September 3rd.

[zambonir]

Crazy it's our last series against the Braves. With a sweep we'd pass them in the loss column, but that seems pretty unlikely. Gotta win it though, especially at home.

And second place should be entirely in reach. Would be unacceptable to finish behind the Marlins and the Mets seem to be their usual mess. And we still have some control over the Nats.

Will be interesting to see what happens trade-wise - the Giants probably won't go for it and there's been talk of the Reds and even the Brewers pulling the plug. If that actually happened it would be hard to miss the playoffs, though I doubt the latter two teams would actually fire sale.

One thing is for sure, we're not sellers.

[andyb]

One thing is for sure, we're not sellers.

I thought we probably had to go 2-4 in the 2 series to get the team to think about selling. Since we are already 2-0, it is pretty unlikely they would want to sell now.

Realistically I think they should just stand pat unless something with near zero cost comes up. The starting rotation seems fine since we are 6 deep even if it is only 2 quality starters. We are not willing to pay what it would cost to get a number 3 starter. The offense with Bohm is also above average. He essentially solves the Kingery problem and both Cutch and Hoskins are coming around. There are no great holes out there even if the defense is pretty bad.

We addressed the depth issue in the bullpen also though probably not the back end quality issue since Workman's 2019 was probably the season that does not fit in his career. He is good but not great. I guess we could add another reliever, but 10 more good innings is not worth a top 10 prospect IMO for the ability to make the expanded playoffs and have to win 2 out of 3 against a better team on the road.

[gmwannabe]

That is who I'm hoping for.

[zambonir]

Ordinarily I would agree we just don't have the tradeable depth to do anything that's not just marginal improvement. But in a year where every trade might be marginal, there could be opportunities. And getting/having the 6th spot might be a bigger deal than being 8th. 5th is also in reach. And the road thing probably doesn't matter quite as much now. No fans, and the team won't really be affected by travel in quite the same way.

That would be another reason to want a higher seed, since as an 8 or 6 you probably go West.

Pretty tough to make any major decisions just in the next 72 hours, and yes, the line-up is pretty good. The pitching too, but I could see them at least kicking the tires on a starter with one more year of a control. 1 or 2 wins amidst all those doubleheaders could really matter, and neither Howard nor VV inspire full confidence in win-now mode.

Reliever upgrade really depends on Suarez, who could at least ease the loss of Alvarez. But seems crazy to expect much from him, Arano and Robertson, and there might not be time to fix Hector either (or perhaps it's physical).

[LoneStarPhan]

The Phillies will need both Velasquez and Howard for start in September. They are about to start a 13 game in 12 days run and after a day off, they go 18 games in 14 days.

[zambonir]

Indeed, which is why I would consider acquiring a starter. You could include Velasquez in the deal (which saves you $) or view such a move as something that also upgrades your bullpen by leaving VV in there permanently.

And that also gives you the flexibility to use Howard there when he's not the spot starter, especially since that would be his role in the playoffs anyway.

I don't think the Phillies should feel any obligation to prioritize Howard's usage and development, the season is already completely weird and how he spends what is now a mere four weeks remaining - consistent 5th starter, flex guy, even going back to Allentown for regular work - isn't going to significantly change his track for 2021.

5th starters are generally not that great but if you're really embracing being a contender in this weird season, and 1 game makes the difference between 8/9 or 5/6, Howard and VV's results are no more acceptable than Hector's.

The bigger issue is you still don't want to pay a normal prospect price for a clear rotation upgrade. But who knows what normal's going to turn out to be.

[Austinfan]

If the Phillies are going to make a trade, who are they going to trade? They've already stripped the farm system, Stott has to be an untouchable, Kingery would be a sell low move, etc.
So VV, Moniak, who else would have any value?

[zambonir]

VV, Moniak (he'd have to be added to the 60). Haseley and a few other Top 30 guys if you got someone big/controllable. I would not give up on Kingery obviously, and Haseley may also be needed in LF more (this year and next). You could trade Grullon if you wanted (still other catchers in Allentown for emergencies but you may also need to trade one of our catchers for a starter next year). Gamboa's still around. Ortiz. Garlick could be a throw-in.

Just depends if they can really do anything ambitious, and who knows what the market will actually bear. If it's just an extra bullpen or bench piece it won't cost them much. Workman and Hembree didn't. Ordinarily you might try to upgrade the bench and on paper that's not a bad idea (Bruce hurt, Walker and Kingery not doing great, Gosselin tailing off) but it doesn't mean someone new would actually be better.

The market is the same for everyone, is the good news. The Yankees and Dodgers don't have much more motivation to go all-in than any other team, because even being at home in the first round is a crapshoot.

Is there a postseason roster deadline? There could also still be free agent sixth starter types kicking around the waiver wire and free agency, Teams will also start releasing guys from the alternate site as they fall out of contention and bring in prospects.