Discussion

zambonir 2020-08-30 02:25:57 UTC #481

It's rare that I say this: I agree with Brookover

His case, in a nutshell: we have one of the three best offenses in the NL (behind LA and SD) and our rotation is currently out-performing the Braves and Nats. The division is there for the taking, and those five doubleheaders will determine the team's fate. And if you can't get someone with one year of control you've already replaced Arrieta for next year.

andyb 2020-08-30 19:10:49 UTC #482

Kingery in for Bohm in the lineup tonight against a LHP (Milone). Milone was acquired by the Braves from the Orioles this morning and is starting tonight.

Most likely a rest day for Bohm while also putting the best defensive infield in the lineup with Arrieta on the mound. The trade means the Braves are taking this one pretty seriously.

zambonir 2020-08-30 19:17:39 UTC #483

Bohm's geting traded, obviously.

I do hope they're up to something, a lot going on today.

gmwannabe 2020-08-30 20:14:55 UTC #484

Zamby is on to something...

julio 2020-08-30 20:18:20 UTC #485

Well, all I can say is, if they trade Alec Bohm, they'd better get a heck of a return - and not a rental or short-term (e.g., a year or two) fix. No organization can maintain a roster trying to replace everybody every two years.

zambonir 2020-08-30 20:26:29 UTC #486

IT'S A JOKE (and GM's tongue practically lives in cheek)

I do think a serious trade for a controllable highish-end piece would require a serious headline asset though: Haseley, maybe, or a pretty good prospect.

julio 2020-08-30 22:08:39 UTC #487

Yeah. If we want quality and years of control, we pretty much have to offer similar value. Unfortunately, I’m not convinced we have enough of value to pull off a “compression” trade where we combine a couple of assets where we have a surplus, for value where we have a need. I mean, where do we have a surplus?

el-pietro 2020-09-02 14:10:16 UTC #488

After last nights results Fangraphs puts the Phillies odds to make the expanded playoffs at 80%.
https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

I recall that we had very good odds mid season to make the playofs in 2018 so I'm not going to get overly excited right now. We only have a 3.5 game advantage over the Mets and 5 over the Nationals, not to mention the Marlins who we're tied with right now.

Dodgers and Padres look secure in the West, Cubs look secure in the central.

Philsmania 2020-09-02 14:36:04 UTC #489

Yes, will the trap door beneath us spring yet again? That is the question. I am enjoying this current run of good baseball, however. And, Klentak probably deserves credit for a credible effort to rebuild the bullpen on the fly and Wheeler looks like a really good signing.

Austinfan 2020-09-02 14:42:08 UTC #490

Now that they have a credible bullpen (not good, but no longer a disaster area), as long as Arrieta doesn't fall off a cliff or Howard get the rookie jitters, they should play above .500 the rest of the way.

With Hoskins rediscovering his mojo and Bohm living up to his hype, they have one of the better offensive teams around, if Kingery could rediscover his swing they could be very deep down the stretch.

The one guy who's a pleasant surprise so far has been Knapp, I always thought he'd hit given his college performance, but catchers are almost as weird as LH starting pitchers. If he can keep this up, he provides a lot of flexibility as a switch hitting catcher who can allow JT to rest at DH against LH pitchers (platoon with Bruce).

andyb 2020-09-02 15:48:47 UTC #491

The Ringer on JT:

zambonir 2020-09-02 16:52:50 UTC #492

The whole narrative about this team is funny to me. They are clearly improved, especially with Wheeler, Didi and a healthy Cutch. But they're still just 16-15, tied for second place.

After 31 games last year they were 18-13 and up 2.5 games. After 60 games they were 33-27 and a half game up.

In 2018 they were 17-14, 2 games out, and then 32-28, 3.5 up. Both of those teams were actually still in contention in September too, though it doesn't feel like it in retrospect.

So there's probably not a trap door, and we're not actually going to find out if this team is "built for September" differently than the other two teams. Just that they may succeed under the abbreviated schedule and weird timing of this season.

If everyone stays healthy, that is. I believe Cutch was actually injured in Game 60 last year. We also didn't lose Seranthony until June.

andyb 2020-09-02 17:11:24 UTC #493

Every other team in the division seems to have COVID or Injury issues bigger than ours also and few did much at the trade deadline. I don't want to get overconfident, but this is wide open.

phillychuck 2020-09-02 17:13:09 UTC #494

Without the awful, awful blown leads earlier the team's record right now would be better than 18-13. With a just below average bullpen.

It was a bad month for Neris to struggle on top of all the other bullpen issues, of course..

zambonir 2020-09-02 17:45:20 UTC #495

But those things happen in any season. The bullpen didn't actually lose any more games in and of itself than the offense or a bad starting pitcher outing did. I'm sure you could find 5 games of any of the first 60 last year and say they could have gone the other way.

And it's not yet clear if the bullpen is significantly improved - still no idea about Neris, Workman and Hembree haven't been good, Morgan and Alvarez are both on the IL, who knows what Suarez has. Phelps is obviously big.

The injury luck might be the single biggest factor in our favor, if it holds. Along with squeezing as much as they can out of the bottom-end starting pitchers.

Conversely, we have a fairly difficult schedule. 19 of the 29 games are on the road,including 4 of the 5 doubleheaders (though one game against Toronto we'll bat last). We're 4-6 on the road (one of those games was at CBP).

I could see them going 14-15 the rest of the way, but still making the playoffs. They could also go 20-9, who knows. That's the beauty of small samples. Last year's team was 17-11 in May and 13-14 in August. It was 34-38 (.472) in the second half. They may yet finish 29-31 (.483) this season. Right now the Giants (18-19, .486) are the last playoff team.

If they are really better, and stay healthy, the division might still be there for the taking, and the 5th seed definitely is. We can also eliminate the Marlins by ourselves (but the opposite is also true).

Lucky_Beagle 2020-09-03 22:01:46 UTC #496

The Red Sox have claimed catcher Deivy Grullon from the Phillies, per an announcement from Philadelphia. The Phillies also outrighted hurler Reggie McClain to Triple-A Lehigh Valley.

bkeich 2020-09-04 02:32:03 UTC #497

I wonder if the upcoming Marlins series is the first 7 game series in ML History.

Might have happened before because of a hurricane or something that canceled an entire series, but not really sure.

zambonir 2020-09-04 02:47:08 UTC #498

I think that is probably safe to say. I could see six, maybe.

I think this probably worked out about as well as it could have for the Phillies, they are obviously playing better than they were in early August - with better players too - and between the off-day and the duration of the series that is two games they won't be playing on the day after travel. The doubleheader against Boston exists in order to give them that off-day, so it will be interesting to see how that goes.

kikutaro 2020-09-04 04:20:55 UTC #499

It seems to me that there are 7 game series every post-season

zambonir 2020-09-04 05:34:16 UTC #500

Not seriously suggesting correlation but Phils were 5-8 before calling up Bohm and are 12-7 since (12-5 in games he's played).