2020 Philadelphia Phillies Season News/Notes/Discussion

[zambonir]

But they traded Rollins because they thought Freddy was ready. At that point they were trying to rebuild on the fly. The fantasy was that you would win with Franco, Utley, Howard, Galvis, Revere, Asche and Dom Brown, plus Nola and Pap. Herrera was a bonus. Making Aaron Harang your #1 starter probably wasn't gonna get that done though. It was only after Monty got sick that they really got serious, and even then for whatever reason it was slow-played for a season-and-a-half.

[andyb]

Bohm is the real thing at the plate. He is really bad defensively. Move to 1B or LF bad. He'll get a year or two to improve but that is it. The Blue Jays already moved Vlad Jr. This is the nutshell of any critical comments about Bohm. He is not a success because he can hit. If he can hit but is just a 1B defensively then he is probably not what one expects from the #3 overall pick. The Phillies believed in his defense and took him there. Let's hope they are right.

[zambonir]

Unfortunately those young players (Ruf, Brown, Revere, Hernandez, Ashe, Herrera, Galvis, etc) were not really a solid core, in fact most of them are either gone from the majors or just barely holding on.

A few of those players actually worked out, with Herrera's decline being unexpected (even before the final development). Where Klentak really botched things, in a way that wasn't entirely his fault, was casting his lot with so much of what he inherited (including the manager - like the Astros and Cubs weren't not going to win until our third manager, but we waited longer to get one). Hernandez, Franco, Altherr, Williams, Pivetta, Eflin: all still pieces in 2018 and still on the roster in 2019, all but one gone now. And no young players to replace them.

It certainly didn't help that Klentak's first draft and biggest rebuild trade (Giles) ultimately produced so little.

[xogfog]

If they adopt the DH in the NL, the Bohm issue is solved.

[bigegypt0417]

what would be "what we wouldn't expect" from the 3rd pick at first base?

Like what specifically would make it below expectations?

[andyb]

If Bohm is a DH he was probably not worth the number 3 pick in the draft. THAT is the point. We messed up the number one overall pick with Moniak. And if a number 3 overall pick is only a DH, we should have probably picked somebody else with 2-way value. Nick Madrigal was the likely alternative (I never heard us involved much with Jonathan India or Jarred Kelenic). Madrigal of course made the majors in the same time frame but got hurt.

If Madrigal is a 750 OPS above average 2B who can run, is that more valuable than a 850-900 OPS hitter who is a DH or a minus on defense wherever he plays?

Hard to answer that now, but it is the question to ask.

[bigegypt0417]

If Bohm is a DH he was probably not worth the number 3 pick in the draft.

So at first...what would not make him worth the #3 pick?

[andyb]

what would be "what we wouldn't expect" from the 3rd pick at first base?

Like what specifically would make it below expectations?

Generally players limited to 1B are not drafted that high that often. That is because they have less value than players with more tools that add value on defense or on the bases. From 2015 to 2018 there were no 1B selected in the top 6 picks and 2 of those years had no 1B selected in the top 40. Now 2019 (Andrew Vaughn, 3rd) and 2020 (Spencer Torkelson 1st but announced as a 3B) have examples of 1B selected high. It is just a high bar for success if there is no defensive value (and Torkelson is at least good at 1B if he fails at 3B).

The bar for success is high. Bohm (right-handed also) as a DH would be a disappointment.

[xogfog]

If he is a DH that mashes 35-40 HR and drives in 100-120 RBI for 5-7 years, how would that not be worth the #3 pick.

[zambonir]

If Bohm does that there's no issue. Fortunately, young Phillies players with good minor league numbers and hot major league starts never fail, so I guess we're set.

(Seriously, we've had the same conversation about Hoskins, where it was assumed he'd have a career .950 OPS or something, in which case he'd be racking up All-Star appearances. But if you're just an .800-.850 OPS RH 1B - with Rhys you should be so lucky at this point - you're merely a good player, which is also fine if you were a 5th-rounder or even the 8th or 14th pick.)

[bigegypt0417]

I would tend to say that would be acceptable as a 1B...it would be a disappointment for the #3 pick to be a DH.

[zambonir]

The Phillies did make it very clear that they believed in Bohm as a 3B, which played a role in them drafting him so high. Of course this is the same GM who believed in Rhys as a LF.

He would have gone lower if every team believed his future was 1B.

I seriously doubt he'd be so poor at 1B as to become a DH, but I also don't think there will be many full-time DHs, and certainly not full-time RH DHs, unless they really rake against RHP.

[andyb]

But if you're just an .800-.850 OPS RH 1B - with Rhys you should be so lucky at this point - you're merely a good player, which is also fine if you were a 5th-rounder or even the 8th or 14th pick.

It is always the same risk/reward equation. A high pick is supposed to give you both offense and defense. Replacement level is also higher at 1B. One should be able to find an 800-850 OPS Eric Thames-type off the street for modest dollars. The same 800-850 guy that also has some defensive value tends to be either really expensive or a younger guy that can play the position. The whole proposition with Bohm and such a high pick was that you could have both the high level of offense AND a guy who could be credible at 3B.

With Rhys, when people said the offensive bar for a RH 1B was high, they were talking about just the situation we are seeing now. The Rhys today is not someone we would consider signing to a long term deal because he is not good enough compared to the free agents that could be signed (or compared to moving a Bohm there).

[Austinfan]

Bohm is a little different.

Most 1B types aren't great athletes, so they rarely hit well into their 30s.

Bohm is a good athlete, he just may not have the reflexes for 3B, but looks like he'd be fine in LF with his arm and general athleticism. Obviously, RF is not an option.
He doesn't look awkward, he shows good feet and balance, just doesn't react well on hot shots.

[phillychuck]

I don't see Bohm as irreparably a bad defender. He should be in AAA this year learning the position defensively. He is reportedly a tireless worker. I think he needs substantial time at 3B in the majors to get comfortable and show whether or not he can stay there long term. And I agree with AF, a move to LF is more likely than a move to 1B, or at least it makes more sense given Bohm's athletic profile and the greater value of a bat in LF as compared to 1B.

[LoneStarPhan]

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Matt Breen
@matt_breen

Phillies reliever Jose Alvarez (testicular contusion) was told to not throw for two weeks. It would be fair to assume that he would need an additional two weeks to build back up before returning. The season ends in a little more than 4 1/2 weeks.

[zambonir]

The Phillies traded LHP Austin Davis to the Pittsburgh Pirates for a player to be named later and cash considerations.

— Matt Breen ( @matt_breen ) August 26, 2020

[Squire]

Something better than nothing

[zambonir]

Do you think there are pushy baseball Dads who try to turn their kids into lefties?

[andyb]

Probably get college draftee relievers for both Davis and Garcia. Guys like Brogdon and Russ but before that minor league year that elevated them to AAA and the brink of the majors. While we have blown through our AAA reliever depth, we probably need to build up the depth at Clearwater and Reading next year. PTBNL is likely because the players are not on the 60-man pool (though I suppose they could be 2020 draftees or college NDFAs we liked before the draft but could not sign).

Interesting also that this is the second deal in a row where we got additional "cash considerations". The Red Sox deal also included that in addition to the amount explicitly included. If I had to guess, Klentak is building up a small cushion of cash that can be used to get the club a few hundred thousand more of competitive balance threshold savings in case small additional deals (or veteran free agent additions) put us slightly over the threshold.