2020 Philadelphia Phillies Season News/Notes/Discussion

[zambonir]

Well, he still hit 29 HRs with a .818 OPS last year. He was the 12th or 13th best 1B in MLB statistically, so yeah, solid, but, also still upgradeable or replaceable if you want a lefty, or better defense, or just to save money in two years.

Now we'd be happy to just get him back to that place.

[philsphan67]

Rhys is a great guy (seems to be), professional, but he is a Boras client and first basemen are easy to replace at a high price. Interested to see where they go with Rhys. Their payroll is going to be a mess assuming they sign JT and if they do not get some (cheap) help from the minors (I don't see much help coming).

[Philsmania]

Looking ahead five years five years ago, I doubt would we looking at the prospect of possibly having the #6 pick in next year's draft.

Tankathon | 2021 MLB Draft Order

[zambonir]

We should be so lucky as to see Rhys get to the point where Boras is licking his chops at free agency. Right now he'd probably take a Nola-like extension, but that's not gonna happen either. His arbitration awards won't be too expensive for several seasons, right now he still makes less than Andrew Knapp or David Hale. And who knows if we're even gonna have baseball in 2022.

You start to shake up the team, he's still got trade value but not as much as you'd like for a guy who's supposed to be one of the faces of the franchise.

[Philsmania]

I don't fault Middleton for impatience as much as I fault MacPhail/Klentak for sloth and ineptitude.

It might take time to build a turnaround, but apart from the FAs Middleton demanded, we have zero signs of progress. The farm stinks. That's not on Middleton. That's on MacPhail/Klentak and their organization of baseball professionals and stat guys. Across the board: draft scouting, international scouting, player development, professional scouting, medical, use of analytics -- we seem to be below average. At present, this is a really bad organization and that is on Middleton/Klentak.

With Howard and Bohm now in the majors and Seabold traded, we may have the worst minor league talent in all of baseball.

I think the trades Klentak has made since the season started are fine, but way too little, way too late to be enough.

One must wonder whether, during the Covid shutdown, the MLB Phillies paid less attention to staying baseball ready than the players on the average MLB team.

I have no idea why the Phillies would trade anyone to win now, even as minor a prospect as Seabold, and then continue to trot Kingery out almost every day. He isn't playing himself into baseball shape. He belongs in Allentown, and he is killing the team's offense. Continuing to play him is a white flag. And, I think it risks ruining Kingery, who I believe still has a future, but not in 2020.

That is an interesting point about whether the Phillies kept on top of things during the shutdown. Remember, back in Clearwater, the Phillies had baseball's best ST record and the team really seemed to be developing good karma and confidence, even in the bullpen.

But yes, the current sad state of the organization is on McPhail/Klentak. Middleton hired them. But, like his good friend Jeffrey Laurie, he has to bite the bullet and cut bait on his bad hires once it becomes obvious that they were bad hires.

Like it or not, another long, painful tank season filled rebuild is coming sooner rather than later. Our choice at this point, is whether to go all-in for the next couple of years in the hope of pulling off a 1993--blow the tax and trade away our 2023-25 future since we are not likely to win with those guys anyway--or throwing in the towel and rebuilding now.

[Philsmania]

I could see Harper demanding a trade if JT goes.

The Harper-Phillies marriage has been very happy and Harper has bonded with the Phillies phanbase in a way I have not seen any other free do so, not even Thome. He's a white guy who's talented, plays hard and wears his heart on his sleeve. Perfect for this town. But, if Realmuto walks, I could see this marriage turning ugly very, very fast, especially if Boras starts stirring the pot for Harper, calling Middleton a liar.

[Philsmania]

Hoskins is looking more and more lost. I can't help but wonder if he will need to head to the Far East to salvage his career.

[zambonir]

All Middleton promised was to have one of the top payrolls in the league. If they do let Realmuto walk I certainly think they'll still spend on other pieces. Odds are they will win any bidding war for JT and if he walks they'll have no choice to but to get George Springer or some other big free agent (though it's a smaller class) or trade target.

If they tank, the team will be the ones begging Harper to leave, but they also won't have to. Because if they tank it's not just Harper. It's Nola and Wheeler too.

I don't think Middleton has the stomach for it. He's already chosen the path. Remember, it was surely Middleton, Mr. Wants His You Know What Trophy Back, who still wanted to win in 2013, when they re-upped everyone and added Papelbon but still refused to pay the tax (which meant trading Pence and Vic in 2012 and replacing them on the cheap). Then in 2014 instead of starting the rebuild when Roy went down they went out and got Burnett and kept Lee until he broke. Only after that did Middleton see the light, though even then Monty had to get sick to start the very slow change.

[el-pietro]

So the bullpen has been horrific so far this year. This image from reddit is comparing the Phillies bullpen ERA season to date to every full season bullpen ERA going back to 1960. Its not a like for like comparison as we're only talking about 75 innings but it does show how stark the results have been.

However, has the pen been unlucky? According to Fangraphs Phillies relivers have allowed a BABIP of .420. The next worst is .336. Surely there has to be some regression to come. Even if they are bad they can't be .420 babip bad, and its not like we have a terrible defense. Its not always amazing but it should be at least average.
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2020&month=0&season1=2020&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2020-01-01&enddate=2020-12-31&sort=11,d

[Austinfan]

This team has a solid core to build around, 4 starting pitchers in Nola, Wheeler, Eflin and Howard, Harper, Bohm.
You could rebuild in three years if you committed to a full rebuild, college draft picks don't take more than 3-4 years to arrive, you can pick up some prospects in trades who are 1-2 years away.

If you continue to patch with high priced FAs, you'll tread water indefinitely.

[andyb]

The team does not really have a solid core. That is the problem. The farm system without Bohm and Howard is among the worst in baseball. They have a core but really how many above average players do they have? Nola, Wheeler, and Harper are it for now. Howard and Bohm might be. Realmuto could be (though a 5+ year deal for any catcher likely ends up as a bad deal). Nobody in the bullpen qualifies. Eflin and Velasquez are below average starters now.

It is a thin core and there is nothing behind that. We need to make smarter trades and build a farm system. And a team with the ability to spend $200 million on payroll should think carefully about that. We don't really have lots of dead money to shed like the Red Sox.

We likely do NOT rebuild. The fan base will want to win and the key players (Harper, Nola) would not want to be here through even a 3-year deal.

We need to be smarter. A full rebuild is not the only answer. Smarter drafting and organization building paired with spending money can lead to a good team. Probably need a new GM to execute that strategy though.

[bkeich]

This team has a solid core to build around, 4 starting pitchers in Nola, Wheeler, Eflin and Howard, Harper, Bohm.

Honestly, do you really think that is a solid core? 6 players, 2 of which have played fewer than 20 games in the majors and were not exactly top 20 prospects to begin with. One pitcher (Eflin) who we just hope is league average. One pitcher (Wheeler) who entered this season with an ERA+ of 100.

This is not a solid core to build around, in fact, with the exception of Harper and Nola, these are the guys you add to your very good players to fill out the roster.

This rebuild was a failure, I think we can say that after 8 years. It produced zero playoff appearances and even the most optimistic of us must assume that what we have is at its peak now and probably starting a decline (Nola, Harper, Wheeler). We have other short term pieces which we may or may not retain (Realmuto, Segura, Didi, McCutcheon) and one reliever that is worth anything (Neris) and some others (new acquisitions, Alvarez, Morgan) who are at least major leaguers, but their future is pretty deep in the bullpen probably.

A few seasons ago I put up a poll of when this team will compete, and 2020 was the most popular answer. Unfortunately, it didnt happen, and next season really doesnt look likely either with the salary problem. Is 2028 the next time we seriously think this team can compete?

[allentown]

The rebuild should be to get better scouts at all levels and improve instruction and medical. Also, we need to stop losing draft picks and international $ to FA signings. Better to re-sign Realmuto and avoid comped FAs,, if there even is still such a thing this winter. Also, don't trade minor league and young players away. We badly need cheap, team-controlled plus contributors to keep the budget controllable. An over cap season seems inevitable next year.

I would list our major deficiencies in this order, starting from most serious:
1. International scouting -- when we land a big $ prospect they are lacking talent or not the age stated. We are almost unique among teams who make a $ effort internationally, in the lack of plus MLB players. It is many years of failure and the finger must be pointed at Sal.

1. Instruction -- the players we sign don't seem to progress satisfactorily in the minors

2. The analytics department. It still doesn't seem to be a plus.

3. Pro scouting. We trade for and sign too many duds, including injured duds

4. draft scouting -- First round has improved greatly of late, because we have gone largely college. When we don't dare go H.S. position player, because we seem unable to pick the good ones. Perhaps it is the same failing which hinders us with even younger international position players.. We seem to have made a concerted effort in drafts and in signing undrafted this year in adding college pitchers who can be MLB relievers. We have come up fairly empty in that effort, whether scouting, development, or giving up to early.

5. Refusal or inability to be a factor in the international post-amateur player market

Logic says that if we have good baseball people in place, spending the amount of $ we are willing to spend should yield a far more positive result. I know little about the specific baseball people down the line, but our failure to produce young contributors suggests we have major weaknesses there.

The Phillies still seem too much a member of the Commissioner's Cub Scout troop, acting 'for the good of baseball', not pushing the boundaries by using the loopholes deliberately inserted into rules, and just having a flat-out determination to doing what is necessary (within the stretched limits of the rules). The scofflaws seem to do far better than us . Like Giles, MacPhail seems to have gotten his job for this reason.

I don't know if we rebuild or not, but suggest that if there is a high likelihood that we don't re-sign Realmuto and if there likely won't be fans in the seats to start next season (I think a real possibility), then next season would be an excellent time to rebuild. Otherwise, fans will revolt and the stadium will be a booers paradise. I am pessimistic that we re-sign Realmuto. I think more often than not "I won't negotiate until the season is over' is a tactic not to get on the bad side of fans and media, by a player who has already decided to skip town. I just don't think the quality of the MLB Phillies is such that Realmuto wants to cast his lot with us, especially since the next couple years don't look any more promising. The Phillies needed for their young position players to break out, and they haven't. If they can't turn around Kingery and Hoskins, the team is cooked for this cycle.

It would also be nice if they could build an actual bullpen.

[bkeich]

1. International scouting -- when we land a big $ prospect they are lacking talent or not the age stated. We are almost unique among teams who make a $ effort internationally, in the lack of plus MLB players. It is many years of failure and the finger must be pointed at Sal.

Instruction -- the players we sign don't seem to progress satisfactorily in the minors
The analytics department. It still doesn't seem to be a plus.
Pro scouting. We trade for and sign too many duds, including injured duds
draft scouting -- First round has improved greatly of late, because we have gone largely college. When we don't dare go H.S. position player, because we seem unable to pick the good ones. Perhaps it is the same failing which hinders us with even younger international position players.. We seem to have made a concerted effort in drafts and in signing undrafted this year in adding college pitchers who can be MLB relievers. We have come up fairly empty in that effort, whether scouting, development, or giving up to early.
Refusal or inability to be a factor in the international post-amateur player market

I think you could have stopped the post here :). That is pretty much saying EVERYTHING IS WRONG. Other than the vendors in the stadium this says that every employee for the team is not doing their job. Sadly, that might be correct.

[andyb]

Fangraphs on the Boston trade:

Woeful Red Sox Help Phillies Patch League-Worst Bullpen

[bkeich]

It was probably predictable that Harper would have a very good season this year. His career stats are striking how much he starts hot and cools during the year.

Career OPS
March / April 1.025
May .902
June .838
July .831
August .912
Sept / Oct .900

All of these numbers are at least 170 games in each month, so they are not a SSS. Wonder if they can figure out if he wears down, doesnt do well in heat, just looses intensity or if it is minor injuries that get him. Honestly, this something someone should be looking into, because if you could keep him going like he normally does at the start of the season even his huge contract would be a value.

[zambonir]

This rebuild was a failure, I think we can say that after 8 years.

It hasn't been eight years. Even on Opening Day 2015 they were still trying to win. Which was foolish of them, and the fact that their manager quit in late June tells you how terrible both that manager and the organization was, but the rebuild clock didn't really start until 2016 - arguably 2017 even if their decision to tread water in 2016 remains mysterious and inexcusable. Regardless, whether it was a three, four or five-year plan, it's fair to say it failed, and also that there's been no progression since 2018. With that lack of progress further compounded by aggressive free agent signings and trades, costing us draft picks and young talent. Though those moves were also made necessary by the complete failure of every Amaro-era player or prospect except Nola (you'd even have to say the jury is still out on Hoskins and Kingery. Quinn's a keeper if he's healthy of course).

I don't think Realmuto has ever said he wouldn't negotiate during the season. The Phillies chose not to reopen negotiations with him, which they also hadn't seriously started in March either.

[andyb]

We traded Rollins in the offseason before 2015 so there are clearly at least 6 years in this rebuild. The year before was also filled with lots of hope that the old guys could put one more run together, but no new talent acquisition.

The most revealing part of the rebuild is the lack of organizational development. The minor league system just became mediocre on their watch and, while not helped by losing a few second round picks in recent years, the larger story is not having a top system even with high draft picks (not just Moniak). International development has also been pretty slow since Sixto.

[Austinfan]

The Phillies need to hit on a few long shots, whether it's Rojas or Simmons or Baylor, like LA signings, they're all longshots, but some teams seem to be able to find a couple that break out.

They also need to get solid development out of guys, you don't need to develop 8 five WAR guys, but you do need a steady supply of RPs, role players, decent starters (2-3 WAR). If you have a solid starting rotation and 3 or 4 "anchor" guys, you just need to fill out the roster with above replacement players.

Bohm is the real thing, just watch him hit, whereas Hoskins for some reason became a dead pull hitter, Bohm seems to have pure fundamentals, taking balls to RF, making consistent contact, not overswinging, very impressive for a rookie. And that HR showed that he doesn't need to add a lot of strength to be a 30 HR type, and some strength will come the next few years as he fills out. Where he'll play is the question, 3B, 1B, or LF.

[bkeich]

This rebuild was a failure, I think we can say that after 8 years.

It hasn't been eight years. Even on Opening Day 2015 they were still trying to win. Which was foolish of them, and the fact that their manager quit in late June tells you how terrible both that manager and the organization was, but the rebuild clock didn't really start until 2016 - arguably 2017 even if their decision to tread water in 2016 remains mysterious and inexcusable.

I was going from the date of last success, but yes, they really didnt commit to a rebuild by the definition of getting rid of the bulk of the old core until 2015ish. That said, it has been 8 years since the team had success, those intervening years were a slow (but not fast enough) decline of players that should have (and in some ways did) contain some growth of young players. Unfortunately those young players (Ruf, Brown, Revere, Hernandez, Ashe, Herrera, Galvis, etc) were not really a solid core, in fact most of them are either gone from the majors or just barely holding on.

The point is that we have been "building" young players for a considerable period now, and, what we have looks like what we had in 2012. A team that is not built for the future in any way. The major difference is that this group of players never really had success, they have floundered at .500 for a few years and now one could argue we are likely to do downhill given our salary cap restrains and the complete lack of near-ML young talent in the minors. Most likely 2021 will be filled with 2nd and 3rd rate FA signings to fill out our roster, which is exactly what 2013 looked like.