2020 Philadelphia Phillies Season News/Notes/Discussion

[fish]

Watch the Red Sox turn Pivetta into a real starter. I’m interested what more knowledgeable folks think, but it seems like a reasonable deal. Neither Pivetta nor Seabold are premium assets.

Yeah, I wouldn’t be surprised if they can turn Pivetta around, but at the same time the Phillies lost him while he was here. They’ve lost a few guys who continue to show up and wear a uniform, right now getting rid of those types can be as impactful as actually adding talent. It’s also just shuffling deck chairs until Klentak hits another ice berg.

[andyb]

Apparently there might be a little more from the Red Sox. 815k is the cash included to keep us under the tax threshold plus there is a ptbnl or a little more cash in the deal.

[zambonir]

This is the kind of trade I was talking about. Trade future for now. Resign Workman

Or trade him again in 10 days.

[zambonir]

Rosenthal:

Rosenthal: Red Sox-Phillies swap offers template for trades in abbreviated 2020

So there it was Friday night, a template for how some trades will be completed during the abbreviated 2020 season.

Ingredient No. 1: A desperate buyer. That would be the Phillies, who entered the evening with an 8.07 bullpen ERA, the worst in the majors by nearly two runs per nine innings.

Ingredient No. 2: An eager seller. That would be the Red Sox, whose season is a train wreck in part due to their lack of upper-level pitching depth.

Ingredient No. 3. Cold hard cash. As in $815,000, the amount the Sox included to cover the roughly $1.05 million combined remaining on the contracts of relievers Brandon Workman and Heath Hembree.

It’s telling that the Phillies did not simply absorb the $1.05 million on their own, particularly when it cost them a better package than they otherwise might have sent Boston — pitchers Nick Pivetta, a talented underachiever, and Connor Seabold, a potential depth starter for 2021 and beyond.

Among the obstacles teams will face in making deals before the Aug. 31 deadline, money will be one of the biggest. The Phillies were down on Pivetta, and probably could not wait to move him. But they should have been in a strong enough financial position to avoid effectively selling Seabold, whom MLB Pipeline ranks as their No. 23 prospect, for $815,000.

In some ways this is the thing that reflects the worst on both Klentak and MIddleton. Money is supposed the one thing we have. In the bigger picture we're supposed to be buying the prospects, not selling them. And if we were actually a better team with a chance to win something this year we'd surely want to add more salary.

[andyb]

Definitely have mixed feelings about this sequence of trades. In general the trades had to be made and the cost was not high given the Phillies' current situation. In that respect they were good moves by Klentak if one assumes we can't give up on the season (and really, this team may not be better than .500 so we may be kidding ourselves about whether any move sacrificing the future is worth it).

The other side is that these moves gave us marginally better bullpen pitchers for a short period of time and we gave up 3 arms with like 15 years of potential control for very little improvement because our GM neglected the bullpen in building this team and was forced to sell a prospect to stay under the luxury tax threshold.

A. Hale for Russ. Hale is a competent pitcher who is better than the last couple of guys in the bullpen. He is also not good enough to avoid being DFA'd a few times. The classic AAAA relief pitcher. Russ was probably rated behind Brogdon, but giving up an arm for 10-15 mediocre innings is a price to be paid.

B. Workman and Hembree. 2 decent relievers. Workman might even close. Hembree is a competent middle reliever who can go 2 innings and we might need that a lot. He also has 1 more year of control. These additions will help. Maybe make us a game better but also help save us from going too deep with our starters.

C. Pivetta and Seabold. We had to deal Pivetta. This is partly our fault for not taking the starter we saw in 2018 and making that pitcher the one we see today with refinements. He has value and will not be too expensive in arbitration next year for the Red Sox to give him plenty of chances. Seabold was never my favorite prospect because I think he has a pretty low ceiling like Eshelman did. There is a little more velocity there though and while I value a guy like Medina more because of stuff, he does have value. Teams need competent AAAA starters and he is one of those. That we lost him to stay under the luxury tax line hurts a bit.

D. Competitive Balance Threshold. These moves keep us under. And I think there is another $500K or so the Red Sox have promised (or a low level PTBNL) if we need cash to cover another small move. That we are up against the threshold is partly Klentak's fault (the Segura trade causing us to play more expensive players instead of Crawford, etc.). It is also a sign that our young arms have not developed which is the organization's fault. It is also interesting as to why we felt it was really important to stay under the cap. Practically the big cost would be in higher free agent compensation if we choose to sign a top free agent next time. I sure hope the extra dollars (a few million) are not the barrier. I guess it also makes us aware that staying over next season would give us a repeat offender rate and they want to reset that. They do have a reasonable path to stay under next year with Arrieta and Robertson and Gregorius likely gone, so not sure the reset is that important.

In summary, moves that had to be made. Good trades for both teams. But the reasons we had to make these deals show the mistakes that got us to this place by the organization.

[nycphils]

I’m definitely more of a pessimist generally, so fine if you want to accuse me of just being negative, but it really feels like this is an organization on the brink of another, even more painful, rebuild.

We are completely out of premium prospects coming up through the system for the next 2-3 years at least - at best Stott makes it up and is still top 100 by then, but other than that there is nothing. What does that mean over the next 3-4 years?

Fixtures: RF (Harper), 3B (Bohm, assuming he lives up to the hype and can handle 3B), Nola, Wheeler, Neris (assuming doesn’t break down)

Maybes: Realmuto (re: resigning), Kingery, Hoskins, Eflin, Howard,

Unlikely/minor contributors: VV, Quinn, Haseley

Will be gone or cooked w/in 2 years: McCutcheon, Didi, Arrieta, Segura

What does that mean? If this team doesn’t hit big on at least 2 or 3 of the maybes (Realmuto resigning, Howard being at least a #3 starter, Kingery or Hoskins regaining form) they will be absolutely terrible, with only 2 or 3 really good bats and/or 2 starting pitchers.

Even if that happens, they have to find a CF, SS, LF, 2B or 1B (if only one of Kingery/Hoskins) and 2 or 3 solid starting pitchers AND an entire bullpen, with virtually nothing reliable coming up through the system.

Since I think this is what we are looking at no matter what, I’d like to try to make the playoffs this year as I think we are in for another long drought barring hitting big on cheap free agents like Werth and Victorino. The run of bad drafts and LA signings is about to catch up with us.

[flyers19rw]

The key is re-signing Realmuto. Once that is done, a reconstruction of the lineup can take shape around Harper and him. Lose him and the Phillies are a mess. I could see Harper demanding a trade if JT goes.
With Harper and JT on board, things will be fine. The system has players that can fill out the OF. Probably Didi signs for two years to hold SS until Stott is ready to take over that spot. Bohm at 3B and Hoskins or someone at 1B.
The key to it all is JT. He has to be signed. The FO backed itself into this place. Now it has to pay for it. Give the man his deal.

[zambonir]

If the market isn't weak this off-season it probably takes 3 years + 1 to get Didi, which would just be repeating the Cutch mistake, while also still having Segura and Kingery. If you can trade Segura - or if you decide to flip Kingery for some real value - maybe you do it. But right now, seems just as likely you should trade Didi, though given they are unlikely to be completely in fire sale mode, and also given his immunocompromised status, might not happen. And if you do think there's a FA market for him you can QO him, which he may even take.

I think the ship has sailed on JT. Not that he's leaving, but he intends to hit the open market. And always did, really. Not sure that's the Phillies fault. But it is another demerit as far as the luxury tax - they probably could have signed him had they been willing to just include this year (and get it over with before what became a mildly contentious arbitration process). Once they decided not to sign him during spring training it probably wasn't going to happen, though the virus also disrupted the opportunity to get it done in late March.

Not only has the rebuild failed, but the two to three-year window with JT and Cutch and Segura has likely failed. Right now either Klentak is wheeling and dealing for his job, or because Middleton still expects a playoff team this year based on his own off-season logic (even as he also says it's not a team that's one piece short of a championship). Both things are true, really.

Even with JT back, it's not clear we have short to medium-term solutions at 1B, 2B, LF, SS, and CF. The offense is doing well now with Didi, Gosselin and Bruce helping out, and with Hoskins and Segura at least not getting themselves out. But Cutch may be on his way to a career-worst season with no reason to expect better next year (you might settle for his 2016 level, but in LF with declining defense that's nothing special). Segura's decline continues. Kingery and Hoskins have turned into unknowns (as are Bohm and Haseley but they haven't had their chances yet).

Alternately, Middleton may be looking at a 2021 that still won't have people in the stands at normal levels and a 2022 labor stoppage. Will he even spend to the tax next year if the team is going to lose another $50 million (half of the figure he says they are losing this year). Is it really worth giving JT 5-6 years if you can't win anything in the first two years of the deal?

[Lucky_Beagle]

per mlbtraderumors

The Phillies have made a series of roster moves today (per The Athletic’s Matt Gelb), activating newly acquired pitchers Heath Hembree, Brandon Workman, and David Hale, along with outfielder Adam Haseley, who returns from the injured list. In turn, pitchers Cole Irvin and Connor Brogdon have been optioned and Jay Bruce was placed on the 10-day injured list. Relief pitcher Deolis Guerra was designated for assignment.

[zambonir]

Will be nice to see Haseley again (presumably in both LF and CF, if not also DH) but Bruce will actually be missed.

[andyb]

Bruce has been a little mediocre the last couple of weeks. The Guerra DFA had to happen because we added a net of 2 40-man pitchers (3 in, Pivetta out). So we needed one more DFA after Austin Davis.

Hard to know where we are now. Haseley of course belongs in every lineup against RHP. I think the Bruce move suggests that we probably want Quinn in there and Gosselin at DH is not that different than Bruce. I am fine if we are betting on Haseley and Quinn for this season. That is a reasonable response compared to other alternatives. We have done our bullpen moves (and we really had to do that if we are competing in any way). Let's see if our young players like Haseley and Quinn are really any good. If the answer is no - then at least we gave them a fair shot.

[zambonir]

Guerra will probably clear. It could have just as easily been McLain or Parker (but Parker has been decent so far). We should be so lucky as to worry down the line about clearing space for Suarez, Robertson or Arano.

Given Bruce's history maybe he was already banged up before the actual injury, or maybe he's not even that hurt but this keeps them from waiving Walker before the deadline. And Walker is better left-handed (but Quinn is not). But Gosselin's right-handed, Haseley and Walker are not power bats and Cutch is struggling enough to sit against the occasional RHP (which he presumably still will). I am not pining for Nick Williams (as you might be) but w/o Bruce it's a righty heavy line-up with limited options against relievers.

Of course if we lose another six or 7 games this month you also want to trade Bruce.

[Austinfan]

Klentak is making desperation moves to save his job, but probably too late.

Phillies, Sixers have impatient owners who pushed for short-term moves that are badly backfiring.

Flyers got lucky in that Fletcher was hired to speed up the rebuild,but he refrained from moves that cost serious assets ($7M for Hayes, 2nd/3rd for Braun, and re-couped the 2nd in the draft by trading down), and added a lot of players on 1-2 year deals that won't block young prospects.

Phillies suck, have no cap room and a poor farm system - recipe for long-term disaster.
Sixers traded almost all the assets accumulated by Hinkie and are left with two bad contracts for Harris and Horford, and a team that lacks athleticism and depth.

[andyb]

Clearly Workman is not the same pitcher as last year and that might have been a bit of a fluke. He only gave up 29 hits in 71.2 IP last year after more pedestrian ratios the 2 previous seasons (71 hits in 81 innings total).

In the "sometimes I have no idea how FIP is calculated" column for last night's outing BR somehow gives Workman a FIP of 2.41. That being said, getting Workman back to 80% of last year just might make him the best reliever in the bullpen. Outside of JoJo Romero of course.

[allentown]

I don't fault Middleton for impatience as much as I fault MacPhail/Klentak for sloth and ineptitude.

It might take time to build a turnaround, but apart from the FAs Middleton demanded, we have zero signs of progress. The farm stinks. That's not on Middleton. That's on MacPhail/Klentak and their organization of baseball professionals and stat guys. Across the board: draft scouting, international scouting, player development, professional scouting, medical, use of analytics -- we seem to be below average. At present, this is a really bad organization and that is on Middleton/Klentak.

With Howard and Bohm now in the majors and Seabold traded, we may have the worst minor league talent in all of baseball.

I think the trades Klentak has made since the season started are fine, but way too little, way too late to be enough.

One must wonder whether, during the Covid shutdown, the MLB Phillies paid less attention to staying baseball ready than the players on the average MLB team.

I have no idea why the Phillies would trade anyone to win now, even as minor a prospect as Seabold, and then continue to trot Kingery out almost every day. He isn't playing himself into baseball shape. He belongs in Allentown, and he is killing the team's offense. Continuing to play him is a white flag. And, I think it risks ruining Kingery, who I believe still has a future, but not in 2020.

[zambonir]

One must wonder whether, during the Covid shutdown, the MLB Phillies paid less attention to staying baseball ready than the players on the average MLB team.

I don't think there's any evidence of that. In fact, we seem to be one of the healthiest teams in MLB, and our best players (both position players and SPs) are having all-star and even MVP type seasons. The ones that aren't good were either hurt or struggling last year (i.e. Cutch and Segura) or not established in the first place (including Kingery really, with the COVID as an x-factor). Not sure what they were supposed to do while locked out of team facilities and so forth. Most of them probably did find a way to work out. Heck, that's how Kingery got the virus!

I can't imagine Kingery will play that regularly now that Haseley is up, even with the Bruce injury opening up LF for Haseley a few times a week. At this point there's no way to really send Kingery down. He still makes the team better off the bench than Garlick would (if not with the bat necessarily) and any other option would have to be added to the 40. In a normal season maybe you send him to AAA for his development, and make a move to improve your bench but it's not like we even need an extra 2B, there's already one too many (albeit with the DH spot). Play Gosselin, play Walker, play Segura, find a couple of starts a week for Scott just like any other bench guy.

In the end these moves were neither job-saving nor an aggressive move towards contention, just an attempt to keep the season from turning into a complete disaster while also not having to pay real (i.e. taxable) $ for anyone.

[phillychuck]

If they hadn't blown the six late leads (and 4 of them big leads) they would be 15-8. All of that is on the bullpen, and I don't know who to blame for that. Primarily the relief pitchers themselves, I guess...

I'm very sad that Rhys looks like he's cooked. One of my favorite Phils on the field when he came up. He just doesn't seem to be able to adjust.

[flyers19rw]

Across the board: draft scouting, international scouting, player development, professional scouting, medical, use of analytics -- we seem to be below average. At present, this is a really bad organization and that is on Middleton/Klentak.

Excellent points. This is exactly where a successful rebuild happens. The Phillies have failed in these places which shouldn't be the case with the draft picks that they have had and the money on hand to hire the right people to do these jobs. If after five years, all that a FO has to show is what the Phillies have here now, its time to bring in another regime. There isn't one player on the Phillies roster right now that one can point to and say that this player is going to be an above average major leaguer at his position. That's really sad.

[zambonir]

Well the pitchers are responsible for their own ability. And Klentak is responsible for not getting better pitchers, whatever the reason (poor scouting, lack of $). The virus is also a factor: in a regular season it wouldn't even be May 1 yet, and they would have an entire month, even two, to continue tweaking the bullpen and giving some extra chances to guys.

If they thought having a different pitching coach would make a difference, they were so far mistaken. The starters are about the same as ever, we just have one significantly better new one elevating the group (along with a kid who wouldn't have pitched this soon in a normal year).

I would say that at this point that you don't fire Klentak because of this weird season, and you don't even fire him for (presumably) missing the playoffs, but when you go up and down the roster he's just missed so many times, whether with free agents, trade targets, prospects or inherited players. If you had Wheeler, Realmuto and Harper on the 2015 or 2015 team I suspect it would be no better or worse than this year's or last year's.

Rhys is for sure baffling/disappointing. I didn't think he was ever going to to be a special player (that hot start aside, which was obviously unsustainable), he was going to be upgradeable or moved to DH (which is at least now an option here) long before he hit free agency, but I wasn't expecting a mere second-tier major league regular, and right now it feels even worse than that.

[phillychuck]

I thought Rhys would be a consistent 850-900 OPS 1B who was always a tough out and would work the pitcher and hit 30 or so HRs each year. Not an all-star but a solid guy in any lineup. Sigh.