2020 MLB Draft Speculation

[allentown]

Do you really believe the changes in the 2012 CBA "severely messed up" the Rule 4 draft, or is this more "I don't like it?

Well, I really don't like it, but I also think it introduces an artificial foolish element to the draft, like would be the case if the NFL had their 7-round draft with slots and you had to sign all of the guys from the first 5 rounds to get all of you slot $, so you would end up with the 6th and 7th round picks being better talents and getting bigger bonuses. I'm not really commenting on the overall utility of the 2012 changes, although I'll admit up front that I don't see the owners saving $ on the draft or the system at that time paying old vets a lot more than their worth. A dollar spent on the draft or international bonuses, today, as well as pre 2012, was just about the wisest spending a team could make (spending on scouting and development staff was and is likely the biggest bang for the $ and totally unregulated)..If you believe in efficient allocation of resources, or if you believe in fairly paying players for their contributions to wins and team income, then the young players are underpaid and the oldest players are overpaid and the long, guaranteed contracts to the older 'stars' are some of the least fair and efficient spending in MLB.

[andyb]

Baseball does need a different system (i.e. pools and not slots) as long as there is no formal declaration for the draft. Other than the top tier of HS players, the majority need to be enticed out of a college scholarship. If you did not have pools you would have fewer HS players get drafted because it would be too risky for HS players to declare for the draft and then end up a late round choice with no options.

Now I would give teams the whole pool amount instead of having it dependent on signing players in the top 10 rounds. That seems unnecessarily complicated. Virtually all slotted picks sign, so it is not like having an open pool would change overall spending. And if a team wants to go a million under slot in the early rounds and then offer that million to HS fliers that might accept in later rounds - why shouldn't they be able to do that? I thought the goal was to entice the best athletes out there to play baseball.

[andyb]

ESPN Mock 2.0 has us going for a different PA HS kid. A pitcher with the least track record of the top picks that is apparently rising on boards rapidly. Nick Bitsko. Maybe a little signability knowledge around the local kid?

Bitsko is the hottest name in the industry. He posted a video on Instagram with some Rapsodo data over footage of a bullpen session, but a lot of prep pitchers have done that. What made this notable was that Bitsko reclassified to the 2020 draft class in January and has thrown only one bullpen for scouts since then (his spring season never started). The three innings he threw over two events last summer provide the only track record most teams have with Bitsko. Showing that he's at full strength and has improved since the summer and giving more complete data such as this to clubs would serve to make him an option at most picks in the first round, rather than just an over-slot option after pick 30.

Kiley McDaniel's 2020 MLB mock draft 2.0

[fish]

ESPN Mock 2.0 has us going for a different PA HS kid. A pitcher with the least track record of the top picks that is apparently rising on boards rapidly. Nick Bitsko. Maybe a little signability knowledge around the local kid?

Beautiful delivery, easy power stuff- pretty similar to Mic Abel but seems to have a better curve. Great stuff high school righties- they’re like lottery tickets you play to hope to win but you know more than likely your just wasting money. Seems best suited for a club with extra picks that can push money down for him after their first pick.

Then again, maybe not pitching this year will be a magic pill to keep his arm healthy.

[Squire]

Who did McDaniel have going before the Phillies pick? Who else was available at 15?

[andyb]

ESPN Mock:

1 Torkelson
2 Martin
3 Lacy
4 Veen
5 Meyer
6 Gonzalez
7 Kjerstad
8 Hassell
9 Hancock
10 Detmers
11 Bailey
12 Hendrick
13 Soderstrom
14 Crochet
15 Bitsko
16 Mitchell

[Squire]

Thanks. Longenhagen just did a mock

2020 Mock Draft: Mach 1

Has us taking Clayton Beeter, RHP Texas Tech. He's #51 on the MLB.com rankings and #80 on the BA rankings. Fangraphs has Beeter at 19. Longenhagen says his sources say we are also interested in Soderstrom and Bitsko.

[Squire]

New BA Mock Draft Today (5.0):

1. Tigers - Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Arizona State
2. Orioles - Austin Martin, 3B, Vanderbilt
3. Marlins - Asa Lacy, LHP, Texas A&M
4. Royals - Zac Veen, OF, HS
5. Blue Jays - Nick Gonzalez, 2B, NMST
6. Mariners - Max Meyer, RHP, UMinnesota
7. Pirates - Emerson Hancock, RHP, UGeorgia
8. Padres - Robert Hassell, OF, HS
9. Rockies - Heston Kjerstad, OF, UArkansas
10. Angels - Reid Detmers, LHP, ULouisville
11. White Sox - Patrick Bailey, C, NCState
12. Reds - Austin Hendrick, OF, HS
13. Giants - Tyler Soderstrom, OF/C, HS
14. Rangers - Garrett Mitchell, OF, UCLA
15. PHILLIES - NICK BITSKO, RHP, HS
    BA Comment: Our last mock draft didn’t have Bitsko in the first round. Now he’s 15. Quite the swing, right? Like Mitchell, Bitsko continues to be difficult to peg thanks to the lack of a spring season, his reclassification from the 2021 class and questions about his signability. He could be a player who slides and still gets paid at a lower pick, but we’ve heard the Phillies specifically tied to him recently and there’s little chance he’s either available or signable at their next pick at 87 in the third round. It would also be slightly surprising to see Bitsko off the board before Abel or Kelley, but that’s how the chips fall in this mock.

[fish]

Has us taking Clayton Beeter, RHP Texas Tech. He's #51 on the MLB.com rankings and #80 on the BA rankings. Fangraphs has Beeter at 19. Longenhagen says his sources say we are also interested in Soderstrom and Bitsko.

MLB says "has as many elbow surgeries as quality starts...two". Ha! How about we pencil him in as a "maybe" in the third round.

[Squire]

This is not scientific but of the MLB.com Top 100 prospects 16 of them were HS pitcher draft picks which wasn't as awful as I thought it would be considering I broke them up in to 6 categories.

[Lawman]

I really don't want to see them draft a HS Pitcher.

[Squire]

Me neither....but candidly I would be more bothered by taking a guy ranked 50-80 with the 15th pick

[andyb]

There is a bit of a logic in going for a HS pitcher that will sign for less because of the uncertainty. And its a protected pick which would turn into the 16th pick in what could be a historically good draft next year.

[Squire]

Slot for the #15 pick is 3,885,000. Also he has a UVA commitment. I'm not counting on saving a bunch.

[andyb]

This is where the local angle might help. Offer the Bucks County kid $2.5-$3.0 million to play for his home town team. Alternative is 1 (JC) to 3 (college) years of uncertainty where missing next season might also be possible. I know it is a UVA commit, but I wonder if some of the HS prospects will drop down to a junior college if they do not sign.

Remember I am perfectly comfortable signing nobody. If there is huge uncertainty on the scouting end this year I would just take the pick next year. We are not drafting anybody that would help this season anyway (among safer college picks).

[zambonir]

I would think "I'm going to college" is not going to carry quite the same weight this year: just no telling what the 2021 NCAA season will look like, including the roster/scholarship issues.

On the other hand I guess you could say the same for A ball, where are drafted players even going to go this summer? I guess they would open Clearwater up after the theoretical MLB season starts.

Don't know if it applies to the very best prospects, but enrolling in college as a life choice and hoping that also gets you on a field come January could be a good decision for some.

[andyb]

The uncertainty about playing next year will be there for both HS and college prospects, whether the playing is in college or the minors. Getting a few million dollars though is life changing. A HS prospect could even use that college scholarship money to go to school next year if there is no baseball but there are college courses being offered.

This kid has a UVA scholarship which is both a good school and a good baseball program. He probably cares about the academics. But caring can be a lot different with a $500K offer compared to a $3M offer.

[zambonir]

I suppose I wouldn't walk away from that right now given the uncertainty. On the other hand, he'd only be getting $100K of that this year, and won't see 50% of the rest until 2022, so if college sounds like fun and you bet on your health and upside, the money will still be there in 2023. Maybe even more of it.

[allentown]

I'd be ok with a H.S. pitcher. A number of college pitchers fell by the injury wayside this year and by pick #15, I think the ceilings of the college guys won't be high enough to make the college player the clear preference. The projections have changed a lot and the teams have their own board, so outside the top half dozen guys, it's unclear who will fall to 15, particularly in this unique draft year.

[BostonRoss]

I suppose I wouldn't walk away from that right now given the uncertainty. On the other hand, he'd only be getting $100K of that this year, and won't see 50% of the rest until 2022, so if college sounds like fun and you bet on your health and upside, the money will still be there in 2023. Maybe even more of it.

College may not be all that fun next year.