2020 MLB Draft Speculation

[zambonir]

True, but you'd be going for three years, and starting your education. If you're lucky you're on campus in a limited way, and then playing baseball in February. I guess it remains to seen what happens if you go pro. Clearwater? Australia? There's talk here of the wood bat college league having a season without fans, which just shows how low their overhead is to begin with (it would be a streaming play). But Cape Cod already cancelled right?

[BostonRoss]

Yes, the Cape League canceled. A lower level league in New England, the Futures League, has not canceled but has no announced start date. It’s hard to see how they can start up quickly, though. Non-local players are usually housed by host families, which might be undesirable for both players and the hosts. And players usually have to leave by early August (maybe not this year, though).

[zambonir]

I think our team (the Portland Pickles) is just planning to use local players and have intrasquad games, actually, League is already closer to legion ball than the minors I think.

[BostonRoss]

I just checked the web site of the team closest to me, and the roster does appear to me mainly locals. There are about five whose hometown and school are both too far away to commute from, but maybe they have relatives in the area they could stay with. This is a lower level league that the Cape League, and they probably usually have a predominance of New Englanders. (A few years ago, I watched a kid I coached in Little League pitch for that team.) So the logistics of bringing in players and coaches from around the country may not be that much of an issue compared to the Cape League.

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[Squire]

New Callis Mock gave us Garrett Mitchell but acknowledged the Bitsko talk. Says all the top prep pitchers are in play at our pick

[fish]

ew Callis Mock gave us Garrett Mitchell but acknowledged the Bitsko talk. Says all the top prep pitchers are in play at our pick

I think I could be pretty happy with an outcome of Mitchell, Bitsko or Abel. HS pitching is a kiss of death, but those two guys look pretty smooth to the point that I think there is at least a pretty good chance they advance as prospects in the minors to have pretty good trade value.

[Squire]

Callis latest (5/27) Mock

1. Tigers - Spencer Torkelson, 1B, ASU
2. Orioles - Austin Martin, 3B, Vanderbilt (but says this is not a lock)
3. Marlins - Asa Lacy, LHP (but prepared to take Martin if Orioles don't take him)
4. Royals - Nick Gonzales, 2B, NMState (if first 3 go as expected likely Gonzazles v. Veen here)
5. Blue Jays - Zac Veen, OF, HS (whoever the Royals don't take but maybe Meyer)
6. Mariners - Emerson Hancock, RHP, UGeorgia (Mariners are focused on collegians here)
7. Pirates - Heston Kjerstad, OF, UArkansas (Pirates are targeting college bats Kjerstad, Mitchell, Bailey)
8. Padres - Max Meyer, RHP, UMinnesota (conflicting buzz on Padres, they are also on Robert Hassel, OF)
9. Rockies - Reid Detmers, LHP, ULousivlle (likely to wind up with a college pitcher though prefer Kjerstad or Veen)
10. Angels - Robert Hassel, OF, HS (if the Padres take Hassel, they will take Detmers or Meyer)
11. White Sox - Patrick Bailey, C, NCState (but also notes that the White Sox are also looking at all the preps)
12. Reds - Austin Hendrick, OF, HS (also notes Hassell, Bailey, Mitchell, Cavalli, Crochet)
13. Giants - Cade Cavalli, RHP, UOklahoma (also mentions Abel and Soderstrom)
14. Rangers - Garret Crochet, LHP, UTennessee (but would prefer Veen or Hassel)
15. PHILLIES - GARRETT MITCHELL, OF UCLA
    Mitchell is another huge wild card because he has five-tool upside but also Type 1 diabetes and just six homers in 121 college games. There's a lot of recent chatter that the Phillies could take Bitsko, and all three of the best high school arms are in play here.

Also interesting to note that Callis had Beeter going 22 overall and said he has helium

[flyers19rw]

In the 2000 MLB Draft the Philadelphia Phillies with the 15th pick the Phillies took a player from UCLA. He had a wild card in his resume in that the some of the scouts didn't think he had the glove for the IF or bat for the OF. That worked out pretty well.

[andyb]

Keith Law new mock has us with Pete Crow-Armstrong:

1. Detroit Tigers: Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Arizona State
2. Baltimore Orioles: Austin Martin, 3B/OF, Vanderbilt
3. Miami Marlins: Asa Lacy, LHP, Texas A&M
4. Kansas City Royals: Zac Veen, OF, Spruce Creek (Fla.) HS
5. Toronto Blue Jays: Emerson Hancock, RHP, Georgia
6. Seattle Mariners: Reid Detmers, LHP, Louisville
7. Pittsburgh Pirates: Nick Gonzales, 2B/SS, New Mexico State
8. San Diego Padres: Max Meyer, RHP, Minnesota
9. Colorado Rockies: Heston Kjerstad, OF, Arkansas
10. Los Angeles Angels: Robert Hassell III, OF, Independence (Tenn.) HS
11. Chicago White Sox: Patrick Bailey, C, NC State
12. Cincinnati Reds: Cade Cavalli, RHP, Oklahoma
13. San Francisco Giants: Tyler Soderstrom, C, Turlock (Calif.) HS
14. Texas Rangers: Nick Loftin, SS, Baylor
15. Philadelphia Phillies: Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Harvard-Westlake (Calif.) School

Crow-Armstrong bulked up this winter and is one of the best defenders in the draft class, bringing a nice floor of a clear big leaguer (because of the glove) who hits for some average, and some more upside if the power he flashed this spring is a sign of power to come.

Keith Law’s 2020 MLB mock draft: First-round projection...

[bkeich]

In the 2000 MLB Draft the Philadelphia Phillies with the 15th pick the Phillies took a player from UCLA. He had a wild card in his resume in that the some of the scouts didn't think he had the glove for the IF or bat for the OF. That worked out pretty well.

You forgot short and too skinny to hold up.

The sad fact is more than most sports the ML draft is a complete crap shoot. Especially when you are looking at HS players (which this one was not of course).

If they really wanted to "fix" the draft it is simple. The league runs the equivalent of rookie ball, low A and high A, players can either play in those or play at college. Salaries are based on age and years in the league and which league the player is in. College Tuition is included for any players, and can be used within 10 years from signing. Stipends for apartments and meals while traveling is included. An oversight from the union is provided and the minor league players ARE part of the union, they dont pay dues but they are members with a vote, ML players get votes based on years of service, from 2-5 on union matters.

4 years after HS graduation each player has a 1 time draft eligibility, 10 rounds. Teams draft the presumably 21/22 year olds or not, the ones that are not can sign as FA or continue to play in the league run leagues if they can get jobs. 4 year contracts, no free agency unless released.

The draft has slot bonuses. No negotiation, take it or leave it. A drafted player can return chose not to sign and go back to the league based leagues if they can get signed.

Each team has a AA and AAA team of drafted and FA signings that are both prospects and various veteran backups. 30 players per team.

All players are FAs after 4 years in the majors or their age 28 season, whichever happens first (unless they sign another contract).

[andyb]

Hard to imagine a sport used to paying 16 and 18-year-olds big dollars going to a system that makes everyone wait till they are 22. Even the NBA has had to backtrack on the 19-year-old thing.

I am in the camp that there is little wrong with the draft. Yes it is risky. But who cares. Smart teams tend to do better in the long run. Even the biggest MLB penny pinchers do not want to get out of the player development business. They just want to drop the bottom 20%-30% of organizational prospects (which is like 1% of eventual major leaguers). There are ways to help lesser revenue teams like allowing them to trade draft picks. Or providing extra pool money.

For fans, the lack of certainty in player development is half the fun of watching the minors.

[fish]

I am in the camp that there is little wrong with the draft.

I agree. Ever since the last round of changes the best players are usually picked where they should be. I'd probably want them to allocate more money to the 5-10th round slots to try to curtail all the senior signs just to bump a few hundred thousand to spend later. But that's it.

[andyb]

Yeah. I kind of think they should all get a pool based on their top 10 draft slots, and that pool is there whether they sign the top 10 picks or not. Make it simpler. If a top pick turns down a 2-million bonus then the team can spend that 2 million on a late pick if they chose to. That would eliminate the need for unsigned comp picks too.

Sometimes they overthink the rules. I had that reaction to the NFL's new roster limit with 2 extra players from the practice squad. But you are not able to use any player more than twice. Just have a roster limit. It costs zero money if the salary cap is the same. Baseball would spend almost zero extra money letting teams spend their full pool, and might even entice a football player or two to take late round money if a top pick does not want to sign.

[Squire]

Steve from Wilmington got his question answered today at the BA Draft Chat....

Steve (Wilmington): Who are you hearing connected to the Phillies at #15? It seems like any of the categories (College position, College Pitcher, HS Position, HS Pitcher) are in play there. Does new scouting director Brian Barber have any tendencies from his Yankees days as a crosschecker?

Carlos Collazo: I had previously heard them linked with Bitsko, but now I’m coming off of that a bit as I talk with more people. I would now lean towards a more traditionally safe demographic, though whether that’s a HS hitter, college hitter, college pitcher… still not super clear.

[allentown]

For the Phillies, H.S. hitter has been far and away the most dangerous demographic for a first round pick. We struck gold with Hamels, got trade value for Drabek, Going back a bit farther, Brett Myers and Gavin Floyd added MLB value. I'd be more than happy to land one of the top 2-3 H.S. arms, who look to be available in this risk-averse draft.

[gmwannabe]

i agree. if the top 2 or 3 HS are available, i'd take.
Gm

[allentown]

;No reason to assume they are exactly correct, but if the last two mocks are right, we would have our pick among all of the top H.S. pitchers, That seems to me to be a market inefficiency and better pickings than we'll get in the other demographics.

[andyb]

I am always wary about pre-draft rising prospects, especially when they rise on lists without playing, but Bitsko is certainly intriguing.

Meet the 2020 MLB draft's man of mystery: A 17-year-old pitcher with enormous...

[Squire]

I'm tweaking my board a bit:

1. Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Arizona State
2. Asa Lacy, LHP, Texas A&M
3. Austin Martin, 3B, Vanderbilt
4. Emerson Hancock, RHP, Georgia
5. Zac Veen, OF, HS
6. Reid Detmers, LHP, Louisville
7. Nick Gonzalez, 2B, New Mexico State
8. Garrett Mitchell, OF, UCLA
9. Heston Kjerstad, OF, Arkansas
10. Max Meyer, RHP, Minnesota
11. Garrett Crochet, LHP, UTennessee
12. Austin Hendrick, OF, HS
13. Nick Bitsko, RHP, HS
14. Robert Hassell, OF, HS
15. Cade Cavalli, RHP, UOklahoma
16. Tyler Soderstrom, C/3B/OF, HS
17. Pete Crow- Armstrong, OF, HS
18. Patrick Bailey, C, NCState
19. Mick Abel, RHP, HS
20. Ed Howard, SS, HS

[fish]

I'm tweaking my board a bit:

Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Arizona State
Asa Lacy, LHP, Texas A&M
Austin Martin, 3B, Vanderbilt
Emerson Hancock, RHP, Georgia
Zac Veen, OF, HS
Reid Detmers, LHP, Louisville
Nick Gonzalez, 2B, New Mexico State
Garrett Mitchell, OF, UCLA
Heston Kjerstad, OF, Arkansas
Max Meyer, RHP, Minnesota
Garrett Crochet, LHP, UTennessee
Austin Hendrick, OF, HS
Nick Bitsko, RHP, HS
Robert Hassell, OF, HS
Cade Cavalli, RHP, UOklahoma
Tyler Soderstrom, C/3B/OF, HS
Pete Crow- Armstrong, OF, HS
Patrick Bailey, C, NCState
Mick Abel, RHP, HS
Ed Howard, SS, HS

I think talent-wise, you nailed, it- except that I think Gonzalez is really going to hit. I like he and Zeen better than Hancock.

Pete Crow-Armstrong is interesting. I think he's so polished that he's a no-doubt big leaguer. But his tools strike me as being very Mickey Moniak-ish. they said he added more strength and started showing more power this spring, but then again they said that about Mickey too.