2020 MLB Draft Speculation

[fish]

Keith Law's latest mock has the Phils taking Cade Cavalli, noting they are in on every type of player except highschool pitching, despite the Bitsko buzz last week. He has Bitsko going #14 and Mitchell going #16.

[Squire]

I think that just about seals the Phillies being out on HS Pitching because Collazo sorta intimated the same thing during his chat last week (about not taking a risk on HS pitching). Plus, I think Law is pretty well sourced. I do like that they are keeping their options open on the other three categories though.

[Squire]

BA posted Mock 6.0. but its more of a "maybe if" type of thing. They still think Austin Martin is the pick at 2 but there is talk of an Orioles underslot deal with Veen or Nick Gonzalez so the do a mock as if that occurs with Veen

1. Tigers - Spencer Torkelson, 1B, ASU
2. Orioles - Zac Veen, OF, HS
3. Marlins - Asa Lacy, LHP, Texas A&M
4. Royals - Austin Martin, 3B, Vanderbilt
5. Blue Jays - Emerson Hancock, RHP, UGeorgia
6. Mariners - Max Meyer, RHP, UMinnesota
7. Pirates - Nick Gonzalez, 2B, New Mexico State
8. Padres - Nick Bitsko, RHP, HS
9. Rockies - Reid Detmers, LHP, Louisville
10. Angels - Heston Kjerstad, OF, UArkansas
11. White Sox - Patrick Bailey, C NCState
12. Reds - Robert Hassel, OF, HS
13. Giants - Garret Crochet, LHP, UTennessee
14. Rangers - Garrett Mitchell, OF, UCLA
15. PHILLIES - TYLER SODERSTROM, OF (they incorrectly have him listed as a RHP)
    Note: We’re hearing the Phillies are one of the teams interested in Soderstrom, and with the Rangers perhaps not being on him, maybe he falls to No. 15. Soderstrom is another prep player who’s been tied to teams throughout the middle of the first round. We previously had RHP Nick Bitsko to the Phillies, but he’s both unavailable in this mock and potentially not one of the team’s priority options here as well.

[andyb]

I get the feeling we would take Bitsko if available. The flurry of interest a couple of weeks ago and the local angle are hard to ignore. Of course he has now built himself up with Driveline metrics and zero competition to disprove anything that I am wary he'll be severely overrated. My whole interest in him was that he was a HS kid that might take a below slot bonus because of all the risk out there.

[allentown]

My interest in Bitsko, or another H.S. pitcher of their choosing, is that I think the odds of landing a plus prospect are greater if we pick the guy we see as the best H.S. pitcher, versus trying to find a plus collegiate pitcher after 5 or 6 other college pitchers have been taken. I think for a 1.15 pick that the 6th college pitcher is riskier than the highest-rated H.S. pitcher. Will Bitsko actually go as high as 1.8? I still think Phillies long-term and intermediate-term draft history says that H.S. position players are their first round kryptonite, whether because of scouting or instruction (although the scouting can't be excused for picks like Randolph and Hewitt.) Yes, I know, personnel have changed. Our organizational behavior/philosophy has seemed tougher to change.

[Squire]

Soderstrom is given a 60 hit grade and every video I find of him is hitting foul balls or hitting soft pop outs to left.

[zambonir]

I feel like the local angle is probably less important to this regime, not that it should have ever been important. It doesn't even make sense in baseball, where it takes so long for a player to arrive. In basketball or football fans have an immediate connection, and the player can reap an immediate endorsement benefit (even if it's small fry stuff). Nobody cared about Mike Trout's hometown when he was in the draft. Obviously Bitsko would get a few more articles in the papers if they take him but that's about it.

I would think the short-term history is most relevant here. Three straight college picks preceded by two straight HS disappointments (I won't say "bust" about Moniak yet). And a spectacular college pick (which at the time was conservative/safe) before that.

FWIW, Yankees picks have been three college and three HS over last six years, and all the college guys were pitchers.

The wild card is obviously the virus, which has variables involving scouting, signability and development. If they take a college guy would he actually spend the rest of the year in Philly? Not sure you could do that unless he was truly available to play, as the 50-man taxi squad limit is as much a medical precaution as a roster rule. If you take a high school kid does he not even get to Lakewood until mid-2021 (starting next year at the complex if there's no Williamsport)? Or is anyone they take going to get packed off to Driveline or some other private situation for the rest of 2020, worked out by the team or agent?

[Lawman]

Or, if you assume there won't be a 2020 season, does it even matter?

[zambonir]

It matters even more, I'd think, as far as development, though you could still make the argument either way (take the guy who is further along since he won't play this year or take the guy who is farther away and just accept you're adding a year to that).

Either way it's also an argument for gambling on someone who's a tough sign, since banking the pick for next year might just be a good strategy anyway.

I wonder what would happen if there's no season at all. Would the Phililes open Clearwater back up? Or does everyone just go home? Who knows if there will even be an Arizona League, or any kind of winter ball that you'd want your players participating in.

[fish]

Soderstrom is given a 60 hit grade and every video I find of him is hitting foul balls or hitting soft pop outs to left.

I haven't seen any impressive game video of him either. After watching video of him at catcher and third, he's not either of those. His BP session looks good- notice he's using Citizens Bank as the background on his Hittrax. A hint?

Soderstrom, others connected to Giants at No. 13 in draft

[andyb]

The local angle is all about whether a player that might be an expensive, overslot signing in a normal world would take less to sign with the local team. The Phillies care about signability and the dollars required to get that signing done.

[fish]

The local angle is all about whether a player that might be an expensive, overslot signing in a normal world would take less to sign with the local team. The Phillies care about signability and the dollars required to get that signing done.

Ordinarily I'd believe off the bat that they have no interest in a high school arm, but he does enough things extraordinarily well with the stat and bio metrics i'm sure it has plenty of teams intrigued who wouldn't usually be. When a guy does something at an elite ability, sometimes you have to roll the dice on that right?

[andyb]

While Bitsko is a late riser in the rankings, it is not as if he came out of nowhere. He was one of the top HS arms in the 2021 class already and he just moved into this draft. Which was a rational move on his part if he is not even sure he'll play high school baseball next season who also would have been unlikely to play much summer ball this season (though I kind of wonder if there will be some summer amateur leagues later in the summer - outdoor sports are relatively safe).

The goal for the Phillies should be to get the best player they can for their slot money (or a little less than slot) in the first round. And if they can't sign someone they will have a protected pick in a better draft next year when their cash flow is better and there is hopefully actual minor league baseball being played.

[zambonir]

The local angle is all about whether a player that might be an expensive, overslot signing in a normal world would take less to sign with the local team. The Phillies care about signability and the dollars required to get that signing done.

I get this as a common sense statement but has this really been known to happen? Any more than when we say it about a major league free agent? Given his move into the draft and his scholarship and his rising stock seems like he's as likely to want over slot than to give a hometown discount if he drops back into the middle of the draft. But I agree you take him.

[andyb]

Moving into this year's draft was a strange move. But remember bonus slots were frozen this year with most of the money deferred.

I think this is as much about getting a few million dollars in a time of significant economic uncertainty. Maybe also to take advantage of the good Driveline data when everybody is looking for that too. More players are actually moving out of the draft. I suspect they think they will get lower offers, especially after the first round. In rounds 2 and 3 there is just no reason for a team to make an aggressive offer on talent that is not game-changing like first round talents are. Teams might pick aggressively (i.e. high ceiling), but their offers are not going to be aggressive.

[fish]

Moving into this year's draft was a strange move. But remember bonus slots were frozen this year with most of the money deferred.

He reclassified before the Covid stuff. I’m sure if he doesn’t get the money he wants he won’t be upset to go to UVA.

[Squire]

New Mayo mock also gives us Soderstrom with Hendrick, Mitchell and Bitsko still on the board.

[Squire]

Um.......who does Murkowski think the Phillies are taking at #15?

[flyers19rw]

oops wrong thread. I thought hat I had it in the political one.

[Squire]

Random Phillies Draft Thoughts:

1. If we don't take a HS guy in the first round, I don't think I'd take one at all. Legit not sure we could sign one in Rounds 3-5.

2. Of the 4 players, I am expecting one (1) position player and three (3) pitchers.

3. I have no idea what the UDFA market is going to look like this year. I guess if you are a college senior its better than selling insurance or working in sales. I think maybe we sign 10-20 UDFAs max of guys we would normally draft in Rounds 15-40.

4, Really not sure what team's recent prior draft tendencies are more relevant in guessing Phillies type picks (Yankees, Phillies, Marlins) .