2020 MLB Draft Speculation

[bigegypt0417]

Cornelius Randolph isn't a very good comp in that Soderstrom profiles to have a good amount of power and profiles to be a corner OF'er or infielder.

The two aren't in the same conversation...Randolph was a 1 tool draft pick...and a horrible one at that.

[Squire]

Some.....who would you pick if both were available and you had to choose one.

Austin Hendrick v. Tyler Soderstrom

Garrett Crochet v. Cade Cavalli

Garrett Mitchell. v. Heston Kjerstad

[bigegypt0417]

I love Hendrick if he's there.

Crochet and kjerstad.

Hendrick seems like a huge get if he makes it there.

[Squire]

Hendrick seems like a "swing for the fences" type pick. Having taken 3 pretty safe picks in a row in Haseley, Bohm and Stott, I'm not opposed to it, especially in this year where every pick seems riskier than normal.

[bigegypt0417]

He would definitely be more of a high ceiling/low floor pick.

[Lawman]

How would revamped minor league system alter the team's drafting strategy? Or, if teams feel that next year may be altered due to corona, would that change the drafting strategy?

[andyb]

Probably does not affect the draft strategy this year at all. In future years there will likely be fewer rounds if we have fewer clubs. That would affect strategy after like the 15th round. If there are minor league player limits then maybe you sign fewer international prospects and go for more higher dollar prospects.

This year I still think they go with the best player. I'd even consider tough to sign players because the top 3 rounds are protected. Next year's draft should be much better, so why not get the same pick in a better draft?

[fish]

Austin Hendrick v. Tyler Soderstrom

Garrett Crochet v. Cade Cavalli

Garrett Mitchell. v. Heston Kjerstad

Hendrick and Soderstrom have pretty similar swings, but Hendrick with more obvious power.

A lot of the college pitchers mentioned in the first round after Lacey and Hancock have such short track records of elevated performance, they seem more risky to me than some of the high school hitters with track record.

Kjerstad is safer, but Mitchell has the tools to be the kind of center fielder the Phils haven’t had....ever? I wouldn’t mind rolling the dice on that.

[Squire]

One of my favorite draft websites, www.draftsite.com did a 5 round MLB Mock yesterday

Phillies Picks -
1 (15) - Garrett Crochet, LHP, UTennessee
3 (87) - Mario Zabala, OF, HS, P.R - BA #118 Overall
4(115) - Cory Acton, 2B, UFlorida - BA #295 Overall
5(145) - Kalal Rosario, OF, HS, Hawaii - BA #90 Overall

[Squire]

I'm intrigued by RHP Nick Frasso of Loyola Marymount in the 3rd round if he gets there on the "we always draft a college pitcher from California in the first 5 rounds" line of thinking (seabold, Howard, Eastman, Miller)

[flyers19rw]

Crochet might be a quality pick IF his shoulder has recovered. Elbows get fixed via TJ surgery; shoulders are a different thing. Supposing that Crochet is fine, getting a rangy LHSP who could be front of the rotation would be a great pick. When healthy, he has juice in that arm. Sometimes the you have to roll the dice with a quality starter who is banged up but capable of being rehabbed. CIP- the LAD with Walker Buehler.

[Squire]

My quick Phillies mock:

1 (15) - Austin Hendrick, OF - I think the College guys go before we get a shot at them and a cold weather HS guys falls
3 (87) - Nick Frasso, RHP, Loyola Marymount - College Pitcher from California theory
4 (115) - Justin Fall, LHP, Arizona State (originally from New Jersey)
5 (145) - Shane Drohan, LHP, Florida State (2017 unsigned Phillies draft pick)

[zambonir]

How do you think the lost pick affects their strategy/spending?

I wonder if in the course of the negotiations for 2021 (which are surely going to follow the current ones) if they might get rid of the comp picks.

[Squire]

I can't figure out whether the shorter drsft will mean more college v. High school or whether it will mean more pitching v. Position players. Logically I think you will see less underslot picks and more chalk picks as there are fewer rounds to move the money into.

[allentown]

The whole draft was severely messed up by the rule that you had to sign all of your top 10 picks to get each discrete chunk of your bonus money. That is what led to stupid, easy-to-sign, virtually-wasted top 10 picks and pick 11 becoming more interesting than any round after 3. Then only the first 3 round money could be rolled over. The absolute simplest rule, which would lead to the most logical draft, is to just give each team its appropriate pot of money for the entire draft and they can spend it however they like. In fact, just give teams one big pot of money for domestic and international amateurs and let them spend it however they like. You could do this with just a domestic draft, a combined international and domestic, or separate drafts. The drafts could be any number of round, preferably with the domestic draft no more than a dozen rounds and the international no more than 4. The pots of money would be large enough to cover signing a reasonable number of undrafted prospects. Really, all international players should be covered by this pot of money/ international draft, if there is one. No super-$, over-25 signings that aren't counted against the pot.

[zambonir]

I wonder if the international draft is inevitable now (maybe it already was). It seems like something the MLBPA wouldn't care about that much now, compared to the other battles they are going to have to fight.

Obviously this didn't happen. I don't believe any subsequent proposals have leaked out.

MLB Targeting International Draft As Soon As 2020

[andyb]

I would expect an international draft. Maybe 10 rounds instead of the 20 outlined above. With pools and similar limits like the regular draft which will also see a cut in rounds (maybe to 20 when all is done).

So MLB drafts 30 players total a year. Probably signs another 10-20 UDFA from the U.S. and still another 30+ low dollar players internationally. Guessing the dollar figure not counted as part of the pool will decrease too, though if it stayed at $125K at least there would be enough to get the marginal college prospect. International players will probably sign for less as they currently often do, though of course this whole thing would be MLB saving money because they prefer smaller minor league systems in general.

[Purduke]

The whole draft was severely messed up by the rule that you had to sign all of your top 10 picks to get each discrete chunk of your bonus money. That is what led to stupid, easy-to-sign, virtually-wasted top 10 picks and pick 11 becoming more interesting than any round after 3. Then only the first 3 round money could be rolled over. The absolute simplest rule, which would lead to the most logical draft, is to just give each team its appropriate pot of money for the entire draft and they can spend it however they like. In fact, just give teams one big pot of money for domestic and international amateurs and let them spend it however they like.

Do you really believe the changes in the 2012 CBA "severely messed up" the Rule 4 draft, or is this more "I don't like it?" To me, it was actually a pretty smart compromise. The owners got a guaranteed limit on new entry costs (at an actual lower cost from Day 1) and the players got more money at the MLB level by screwing their non-voting "brethren." Remember the stink Boros made after Appel wouldn't agree to sign for $6.5M in the 2012 draft and went unsigned to the Pirates. The Pirates walked away from their best offer and took the replacement pick in 2013 and Boros swore he would bring the new structure down in the courts because it was unconstitutional, unpatriotic and unAmerican. But here we are.

In 2011 six players received bonuses > $5.0M (top of $8.0M); in 2012 you had 1 >$4.8M (top $6.0M). In the three years leading up to 2012 you had an average of 6 players go unsigned in Rounds 1 to 3: starting 2012 the average was 3.3 in the subsequent three years, and is about one now. The replacement pick completely changed negotiation dynamics. In fact, in 2011 one of the $5.0M bonuses went to Josh Bell in Round 3 -- guarantee you no player will receive a $5.0M bonus in round 3 of the draft again.

I'm not sure how the owners would accomplish this same outcome with just a big pot of money -- think Boros would care about the team's need to make "fair offers" to the rest of the team's draft picks (unless he represented them) if he was negotiating for Pick 1-1? I think the slotting, replacement picks and "sign or lose the slot money" approach has been a boon for the owners, and to an extent the MLB players. This is not unique to MLB. In fact the NFL owners and union basically drew a map for MLB with their NFL CBA the prior year. The impact was as expected (from PFF):

The average yearly salary for a(n NFL) player selected in the first round of the 2013 draft was $2,776,787.70. In 2010, the last year of the old collective bargaining agreement, the average yearly salary for a player selected in the first round was $4,848,126.25.
On the surface, a savings of $2,071,338.55 may not seem like a huge chunk of change, but it is. One has to take into account that the salary cap in the last year of the old collective bargaining agreement was $112.1 million. In 2013, the salary cap was $123 million.
This, in turn, means a first-round pick under the old collective bargaining agreement made up 4.3 percent of a team’s overall cap number. Under the current collective bargaining agreement, a first-round pick makes up 1.6 percent of a team’s overall cap number.

I'm sure the same is true for MLB teams (to a large extent), I'm just not sure where to get the data. But I don't think it severely messed up the draft.

[zambonir]

Are we talking about George Boros? (Boras)

[Purduke]

I'll plead the Dan Quayle defense .. What a waste it is to lose one's mind.... yada yada.