2019 MLB Draft Speculation

[bigegypt0417]

So we're just looking at the first round at this point?

If so then I think my idea should get more thought...forfeit our picks. Cornelius Randolph is the only one of the picks where you can start to make a definitive decision on...that was a bad pick. The other picks aren't exactly setting the world on fire but the next one in the order, Mickey Moniak isn't exactly embarrassing himself over the last few months of baseball he's played. Haseley has had a slow start but was hitting well to end last season.

also...who here has said anything about Almarez can do no wrong? It just might be most people here don't post emotionally and always think the sky is falling.

[teabag259]

I’m trying Not to be a glass is half empty kind of guy that has any team in recent memory failed on as many first round picks as the Phillies have over the past 5-6 years? The word failed might be a little harsh because hope still exists for Moniak, Haseley, and Bohm but all would agree that they haven’t met expectations yet.

[baseballoldie]

I don’t understand why forfeiting any draft picks would be a good strategy. What’s the benefit to the organization in doing this?

[fish]

has any team in recent memory failed on as many first round picks as the Phillies have over the past 5-6 years?

White Sox. I’m no fan of the Braves first round picks either, but Wright and Anderson would seem to have more value than what the Phils have right now.

[bigegypt0417]

I should have used the sarcasm lines...

[baseballoldie]

got it - you had it in two back to back posts which is what threw me

[DougLindsay]

Jack Leiter is looking really good. Love the delivery, arm action, strong build and pitchability. His curve is big and nasty (to the point it might be too big- hitter might be able to see the hump), and velo 91-93 this spring. Just good enough without being too good to have to worry about over-stress. Hope to get another 2 mph out of him as he matures and then he’d be a stud. I would think he’d be there at 14.

He's reportedly the toughest sign in the draft.

[zambonir]

All the more reason for the Phillies to get him!

[Austinfan]

I don't quite get the angst:

2018: Bohm, a little early to get excited, wouldn't you say, Vierling (5th) could be the find
2017: Haseley, hasn't emerged, hasn't flopped, call me in July, Howard at #45 could be a steal
2016: Moniak, 1.037 OPS, that's not good enough? 21 in May in AA, he's filled out, let's see how it plays out, Romero will need a few months to build arm strength and regain mechanics,
2015: Randolph, whiff, Kingery has to show he can hit ML pitching, definitely a below par draft
2014: Nola, Hoskins, that's as good as it gets, folks.

If you get ONE solid starter and a couple backups/RPs, that's a successful draft
If you get TWO solid starters, that's a good draft
If you get Nola and Hoskins, that's a great draft.

I'm actually more concerned that all the mid-level LA bonuses babies like Brito, Guzman, etc seem to suck, you're supposed to hit on some of them.

[Squire]

I disagree with 75 percent of your post but will limit myself to pointing out the obvious: The 2014 draft (Nola, Hoskins)was conducted by Marti Wolever and Ruben Amaro Jr.

[andyb]

One can point out that our top pick in 2018 is in Lakewood and that alone is disappointing since he was drafted for his bat and not his glove. Note also that Eastman is in Lakewood too. He was supposed to be a very polished college arm. The type of arm that goes to Clearwater in their first full season.

Vierling is doing what a college bat is supposed to do. Very small sample of course, but he has performed well in some areas that were supposed to be flaws before the draft. One has to be happy with Pipkin also by him just making Lakewood even if the results were uneven.

This draft is more than half about Bohm though. Would be nice to see a home run every month or two.

[Squire]

Bohm is approaching 200 minor league plate appearances and has zero home runs and 10 XBHs. Its early, but for the #3 pick out of college....that's simply awful.

[allentown]

I think you have to focus on where the money is spent. You can buy a lot of mid-level LA-bonus guys for the $5 million we dropped on Encarnacion and Ortiz. That's where you need to make good.

[schillingfan]

With all those top ten picks, I would have expected at least one of them to be tearing up the minors. IIRC those drafts none of them other than Randolph were reaches. They were pretty much considered reasonable picks. It does make me wonder about our minor league instruction. You’d think one would have been a hit.

[nycphils]

As I’ve said many times, to have drafted 4 top 10 picks in a row, including a 1.1, and for NONE of them to look likely to be even an above average regular is...abysmal. There is no other word.

[Philsmania]

At this point, there's no use crying over losing first round picks to free agents. We're going to blow the pick anyway.

It's probably Almaraz's turn on the hot seat.

[bigegypt0417]

As I’ve said many times, to have drafted 4 top 10 picks in a row, including a 1.1, and for NONE of them to look likely to be even an above average regular is...abysmal. There is no other word.

I mean...other than you have no idea if what you typed is correct?

You are basing this on ZERO actual facts.

[nycphils]

I’m basing it on everything I’ve ever read about them from an evaluation standpoint. YMMV.

[zambonir]

As I’ve said many times, to have drafted 4 top 10 picks in a row, including a 1.1, and for NONE of them to look likely to be even an above average regular is...abysmal. There is no other word.

I don't think there is anything counter-factual in the above statement. It doesn't say they are all busts. It doesn't say that their ceilings won't rise if they have successful 2019s. You can debate how one defines "above average regular" (as opposed to average regular, or All-Star) but nobody's on a fast-track to anything.

I'm not especially bothered by it myself because I do think patience remains appropriate with the last three picks and anything before that is from the old TPTB (and even scouting and development has only been in flux for the past two years). But it would have been nice if one of them was such hot stuff that they'd hesitated to sign McCutchen, or could confidently include one of them in a deadline trade.

[Taudawg]

Baseball Reference has this nice little tool that allows the user to sort draft picks (I write this a little in jest as I expect most people know about it). Based on my filters, I would conclude the Phillies are an average drafting team....but there is not much difference between the best and worst drafters. While I know the focus is on the Klentak era drafts, during the 20 years of 1996-2016 the Phillies received the most return from the first round - https://www.mlb.com/news/5-mlb-teams-with-most-1st-round-draft-success-c235346730