2019 MLB Draft Speculation

[Squire]

With the signing of Bryce Harper the Phillies forfeited their 2nd round pick (and the Nationals received a comp pick AFTER the 4th round (ouch)) Phillies remaining draft picks are as follows:

1(14)
3(91)
4(121)
5(152)
6(182)
7(212)
8(242)
9(272)
10(302)

Without that big bonus pool at the top of the first round like last year, we won't be shaving much. Will probably be a pretty close to slot draft I would think

[el-pietro]

I know the general idea is that you should draft the best player available, but all things being equal what do we think should be the focus in this draft for the first pick?

I think I'd like them to look at a college arm, its unlikely we're getting an Aaron Nola at 14 but starting pitching is probably the biggest weakness the Phillies have currently versus their divisional rivalries. We have loads of depth but light in terms of top of the rotation, esepcially close to Philadelphia.
I don't know what the best strategy for finding those sort of pitchers are, probably through the international market but those guys take a really long time to make it to the majors by the nature of the age they are signed at.

[Squire]

I'm really up in the air this year. I have no idea. I tend to avoid HS pitching in the first round because I think that is the highest bust rate. Maybe one of the 3 college lefties (Stinson, Thompson or Lodolo) depending on how their seasons go. I also like Kameron Misner and Logan Davidson as college bats.

[el-pietro]

Speaking of bust rates you may enjoy this piece by Ben Lingbergh at the Ringer. They got access to 12 years of Reds Scouting reports. Fascinating stuff.

What We Learned From Our Unprecedented Access to MLB Scouting Reports

[allentown]

That is very interesting. The Phillies may have been among the teams failing to recognize how good Votto would become, but they did just fine, choosing Cole Hamels in the first round that draft.

[gmwannabe]

Jack flaherty is a big reason why you seriously consider a big right-handed High School pitcher in the first round (if there are any).
gm

[Mod's note: gm - I edited your correction into this post. Just a reminder to all - you can edit your posts with corrections like this - no need to post "oops, should have been..." in a subsequent post. We're not Twitter! ]

[zambonir]

Could be worse, they could have won the East and been picking 21st

[gmwannabe]

Thanks, julio. My prowess with the computer is still very marginal.

[Austinfan]

I'd think the opposite, the farm system is light in position players, especially above A ball.
Plenty of pitchers with stuff as good as what you'll find at #14, De Los Santos, Romero, Llovera, Medina, Howard, Gowdy (if healthy),

[fish]

Jack flaherty is a big reason why you seriously consider a big right-handed High School pitcher in the first round (if there are any).
gm

Everybody is big these days- athletic and projectable without peak present stuff seems to be the big thing, and that guys doesn’t always go in the first round.

Hitters is the strength of the 2019 class- they’ve had drafts in the past where they’ve focused counter to the strength of the draft like they knew something everyone else didn’t, and then all they’d end with is a subpar bunch of guys at the top that flame out.

I like Spencer Jones right now- he’s a tall lefty hitter and a bit thin, but he seems to be pretty athletic with good aptitude and a body that looks like he’s got room for 30 lbs of muscle (and he’s got a decent lefty fastball to boot).

[Squire]

I had forgotten about Drew Mendoza too. Seems like an above average group of college hitters this year.

[flyers19rw]

Nick Lodolo, a 6'6"LHP at TCU. Drafted at #41 by the Pirates out of H.S. but passed on signing. He's now the top starter at TCU. Started off with a seven inning, thirteen strikeout, one earned run game against Houston. Mid 90's FB with good breaking ball. With the Phillies ability to improve the mechanics of young pitchers, he could be a good pick in the first round.

[andyb]

2019 Pool Allocations (assuming Keuchel and Kimbrel don't change things):

2019 MLB Draft Signing Bonus Pool and Pick Values

[Squire]

Interesting stuff. Arizone with 5 of the first 53 picks. Phillies with the second smallest pool in the division (Thanks Nationals). Miami and Atlanta with very large pools (Atlanta because they punted on last years #8 overall pick).

[fish]

Jack Leiter is looking really good. Love the delivery, arm action, strong build and pitchability. His curve is big and nasty (to the point it might be too big- hitter might be able to see the hump), and velo 91-93 this spring. Just good enough without being too good to have to worry about over-stress. Hope to get another 2 mph out of him as he matures and then he’d be a stud. I would think he’d be there at 14.

[Squire]

New BA Mock Draft just posted. Had us taking our old friend Logan Davidson SS from Clemson. Other guys who were available were Langeliers, Leiter, Hinds, Espino, Stewart

[nycphils]

Squire, based on track record, does it even matter who we select? It would seem we’d be better off firing all the scouts and draft personnel and using BA’s list, at least for the first 5 rounds.

[fish]

Squire, based on track record, does it even matter who we select? It would seem we’d be better off firing all the scouts and draft personnel and using BA’s list, at least for the first 5 rounds.

Quite a few new scouts and restructuring done before last year- have to give them a chance to see what they have. Vierling is encouraging. Bohm has the body and tools most would have wanted in the the prior first round picks.

I like Logan Davidson- he’s kind of a switch hitting Dansby Swanson. Good build, strength and athleticism. The swing looks good, fast bat with some power. I guess the question for everybody “why isn’t he able to hit better?” as he’s lingered around being a .300 hitter in college and .200 hitter in the cape. His K-rate would be fine if he were a pro, but it should be better against college competition.

That said, when you pick at 14 a guy is bound to have warts.

[bigegypt0417]

We should just forfeit the picks...that might be the more logical move since it seems like the phillies are just focused on drafting the absolute worst guy every season.

[Squire]

I think I have advocated the Baseball America list strategy for the last 15 years. I can't imagine we would have done worse. In any event, I am closer to nycphils point of view than the point of view who believe that Johnny Almaraz can do no wrong. This will be his 5th draft. At some point we are allowed to evaluate his performance. His first round picks only seem to be able to stay on a Top 100 list until they start playing.