2019 MLB Draft Speculation

[Squire]

As of 9/25 Morning, the PHILLIES have the 14th worst record in MLB which would mean the 15th overall pick since the Braves get an extra pick at #9 because they failed to sign RHP Carter Stewart last year. Just a little side note but in this guy's opinion...despite the Braves graduating Albies and Acuna and failing to sign their #8 overall pick, the gap between the Braves system and the Phillies system is actually wider this year than last year.

[kmc1019]

y's opinion...despite the Braves graduating Albies and Acuna and failing to sign their #8 overall pick, the gap between the Braves system and the Phillies system is actually wider this year than last year.

Totally agree there is a gulf between the Braves and Phillies farm systems. The Braves have a number of high-ceiling players at the upper levels, especially pitching, whereas the Phillies graduated a wave of hitters a year ago and are close to devoid of impact players not named Sixto who look to be major league regulars in next 2-3 years. The Phillies' best chance to compete in the short term will likely include over-paying for free agents rather than the rise of homegrown talent.

[Philsmania]

y's opinion...despite the Braves graduating Albies and Acuna and failing to sign their #8 overall pick, the gap between the Braves system and the Phillies system is actually wider this year than last year.

It's not a gap between the Phillies' and Braves' farm systems. It's a chasm.

Totally agree there is a gulf between the Braves and Phillies farm systems. The Braves have a number of high-ceiling players at the upper levels, especially pitching, whereas the Phillies graduated a wave of hitters a year ago and are close to devoid of impact players not named Sixto who look to be major league regulars in next 2-3 years. The Phillies' best chance to compete in the short term will likely include over-paying for free agents rather than the rise of homegrown talent.

This reminds me of the last time the Phillies embarked on a five year rebuild plan that utlimately failed, that being the one launched after 1988. By 1992, despite years of losing if not atrocious teams, the Phillies still had a bad farm system. In year five of the plan, Thomas pulled off one of the greatest patchwork jobs in baseball history. But, that proved to be a one-season wonder which obscured the need to start over again for another three years as Thomas spent '94-'96 trying to patch their way to more greatness without building up the pharm.. It wasn't until after 1996 that the team genuinely committed to another long-term rebuilding plan which, after some fits and starts, had the Phillies emerge as a contending team in 2001..

Would signing a bunch of free agents really make this team better over the longterm or just provide a one or two year spike before lousy baseball teams saddled with expensive players on long-term contracts returned?

Or, in other words, are we where we were in 1992 or 2002?

[bigegypt0417]

Would signing a bunch of free agents really make this team better over the longterm or just provide a one or two year spike before lousy baseball teams saddled with expensive players on long-term contracts returned?

Or, in other words, are we where we were in 1992 or 2002?

Sometimes it's hard to tell if some posts are meant to be funny...are you honestly looking around our system and thinking it's anywhere near the disasters those systems were?

This team is in year 2 of the klentak era and has one of the better systems in baseball. I get that the last month has led to some "the sky is falling" stuff but I'm having trouble unstanding your parallel. The Phillies have a solid system and tons of money to burn...we aren't even in the same universe.

[Philsmania]

Would signing a bunch of free agents really make this team better over the longterm or just provide a one or two year spike before lousy baseball teams saddled with expensive players on long-term contracts returned?

Or, in other words, are we where we were in 1992 or 2002?

Sometimes it's hard to tell if some posts are meant to be funny...are you honestly looking around our system and thinking it's anywhere near the disasters those systems were?

This team is in year 2 of the klentak era and has one of the better systems in baseball. I get that the last month has led to some "the sky is falling" stuff but I'm having trouble unstanding your parallel. The Phillies have a solid system and tons of money to burn...we aren't even in the same universe.

Our supposedly vaunted farm system dropped to #18 in the most recent rankings. That's lower half. We have no real impact prospect on the way, aside from maybe Sanchez or Haseley. So yes, if our system is better than where we were in the '90's, it's only marginally better and nowhere near being able to help us compete with the Braves.

[Squire]

And not to be overly precise but Klentak was hired in October 2015. He's had 3 full off-seasons and 3 full seasons. We are not "in Year 2" of the Klentak era. Almaraz has had 4 full drafts.

[bigegypt0417]

And not to be overly precise but Klentak was hired in October 2015. He's had 3 full off-seasons and 3 full seasons. We are not "in Year 2" of the Klentak era. Almaraz has had 4 full drafts.

so year 3? Great...we're not in year 5.

[bigegypt0417]

Would signing a bunch of free agents really make this team better over the longterm or just provide a one or two year spike before lousy baseball teams saddled with expensive players on long-term contracts returned?

Or, in other words, are we where we were in 1992 or 2002?

Sometimes it's hard to tell if some posts are meant to be funny...are you honestly looking around our system and thinking it's anywhere near the disasters those systems were?

This team is in year 2 of the klentak era and has one of the better systems in baseball. I get that the last month has led to some "the sky is falling" stuff but I'm having trouble unstanding your parallel. The Phillies have a solid system and tons of money to burn...we aren't even in the same universe.

Our supposedly vaunted farm system dropped to #18 in the most recent rankings. That's lower half. We have no real impact prospect on the way, aside from maybe Sanchez or Haseley. So yes, if our system is better than where we were in the '90's, it's only marginally better and nowhere near being able to help us compete with the Braves.

I'm not sure I saw anyone publications have us at 18...who has us that low? I'm asking because I don't think I've seen anyone say that...

EDIT-Sorry...I see it...BA dropped us that far.

The Phillies are also the second youngest team in baseball this year. I guess that should be considered to some level...

[EDmuch]

I am just looking forward to seeing how we screw up our first round pick next year. It is difficult to pick in the top ten for several years and never get a true impact player. Let's see what we do next June. Should be interesting.

But I think it is almost unarguable that for improvement of the MLB team over the next couple of years, we now have to rely upon trades and UFA's. I don't think that is horrible. We do still have some younger players on the MLB roster who could develop into solid MLB players.l am looking at you Mr. Alfaro and Mr. Quinn (and maybe you Mr. Kingery). But our MLB roster is, other than Nola and Hoskins, lacking in likely stars and that is where going UFA is feasible. I do not share AF's pessimism about Machado, but I am also starting to get a very positive vibe about getting Harper. And just Harper alone would add another 30+ HR bat to the roster that currently features only one of those creatures.

I think this year is the year where teh spotlight shines squarely on Klentak and what he can do with the info his magical computers will give him.

[EDmuch]

An outfield of Williams/Altherr in left, Quinn in center (during absences from the DL) and Harper in right is a solid start to a decent lineup.

[Philsmania]

And not to be overly precise but Klentak was hired in October 2015. He's had 3 full off-seasons and 3 full seasons. We are not "in Year 2" of the Klentak era. Almaraz has had 4 full drafts.

We started the rebuild after the 2014 season. And, the GM who starts the rebuild doesn't always finish it. Thomas started our post-1996 rebuild but Wade finished it (and Gillick ultimately put it over the top). Wade started the Astros' recent rebuild but Luhnow finished it. Amaro started this rebuild but Klentak should be getting us to contention by next year.

[Philsmania]

I am just looking forward to seeing how we screw up our first round pick next year. It is difficult to pick in the top ten for several years and never get a true impact player.

Look at it that way, we basically frittered away those long hard seasons that we had to endure which earned us those high picks. Those dismal seasons...all for what? The last time that happened in this organization was in the late '80's and early '90's but even back then, we at least got Lieberthal from one of those high picks.

[allentown]

be

Don't we lose our first round pick if we sign Harper?

[zambonir]

So, who's in the 2019 draft?

[Austinfan]

Well, I warned about the "donut" a year ago.
That is, after all those trades we had a lot of talent at Reading and Lehigh, which either graduated or fell short (Pullin, Cozens, etc).

It's taken two years to fill out the bottom of the farm system, but the emphasis has been on pitching, and a lot of young pitchers, unless they have high velocity at 18, simply don't get recognized until they mature.

I think by next fall this farm system will be top 10 again, maybe top 5, as the tremendous pitching depth becomes obvious to outside observers, and hopefully some position players take steps forward.

[andyb]

Really early Fangraphs 2019 draft board:
https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-mlb-draft

[andyb]

If the system is ranked in the middle now and we are drafting in the middle next year, is it reasonable to expect the system to be top 10 next year? Not sure it is. Maybe if a Moniak jumps back up to the top 100 but not even sure that would do it.

Reality is we graduated our top 10 system and if the young players like Crawford and Kingery are not good enough to win with, then we need to supplement through trades and free agency. We have lots of depth in our system, especially on the pitching side. It is just not high quality depth at this point. Unless we make trades or suddenly start drafting better, we are probably stuck with a midlevel system until we get more high draft picks (which is something we do NOT want to happen in the future).

[bigegypt0417]

If the system is ranked in the middle now and we are drafting in the middle next year, is it reasonable to expect the system to be top 10 next year? Not sure it is. Maybe if a Moniak jumps back up to the top 100 but not even sure that would do it.

The easiest way to get back in the top 10 is for bohm and haseley to develop, sixto and medina to pitch and the guys in the lower levels taking the steps we hope they do. Between, Garcia, Morales and others the opportunity is there...

[EDmuch]

If we lose our first round pick to sign Harper, at least we are assured of getting a star player. As opposed to actually exercising the pick and selecting another Fudd.

[andyb]

Obviously we would need multiple players to develop to be a top 10 system. Probably 4 or 5 top 100 players. Right now we are midlevel with 3 top 100 (Sanchez, Medina, Bohm). Haseley will probably have graduated by the end of next year. Maybe Sanchez will too (hopefully anyway). It would be great if Garcia is seen as a top prospect after a year in full season ball. But even if Garcia and Moniak both developed I am not sure we'd be seen as a top 10 system.

This is the unfortunate reality of having 4 top 10 draft picks and not having 3 or 4 of them rank as top 100 prospects.