2019 MLB Draft Speculation

[julio]

during the 20 years of 1996-2016 the Phillies received the most return from the first round

To quote the best color man in the history of baseball: "Never let the facts get in the way of a good story, Harry!"

[Squire]

So just for fun....lets look at the Top 10 picks from the last 4 drafts. We don't know how many of these players will eventually pan out but I will use the Current BA Top 100 and Current MLB.com Top 100 lists (to the extent still available). These are the only two lists to which I have access. I'm sure that Law's list and fangraphs lists etc. and I encourage someone not named me to add them if they like

2015
1. Arizona - Dansby Swanson, SS - In the Majors
2. Houston - Alex Bregman, SS - In the Majors
3. Colorado - Brendan Rogers, SS - BA#14, MLB#10
4. Texas - Dillon Tate, RHP - Unranked
5. Houston - Kyle Tucker, OF - BA#12, MLB#8
6. Minnesota - Tyler Jay, LHP - Unranked
7. Boston - Andrew Benintendi, OF - In the Majors
8. Chicago (AL) - Carson Fulmer, RHP - In the Majors
9. Chicago (NL) - Ian Happ, OF - In the Majors
10. PHILADELPHIA - Cornelius Randolph, OF - Unranked

2016
1. PHILADELPHIA - Mickey Moniak, OF
2. Cincinnati - Nick Senzel, INF - BA#9, MLB#6
3. Atlanta - Ian Anderson, RHP - BA#23, MLB#31
4. Colorado - Riley Pint, RHP - Unranked
5. Milwaukee - Corey Ray, OF - MLB#99
6. Oakland - A.J. Puk, LHP - BA#18, MLB#40
7. Florida - Braxton Garrett, LHP - Unranked
8. San Diego - Cal Quantrill, RHP - Unranked
9. Detroit - Matt Manning, RHP - BA#48, MLB#50
10. Chicago (AL) - Zac Collins, C - Unranked

2017
1. Minnesota - Royce Lewis, SS - BA#8, MLB#5
2. Cincinnati - Hunter Greene, RHP - BA#68, MLB#35
3. San Diego - MacKenzie Gore, LHP - BA#24, MLB#15
4. Tampa - Brendan McKay, LHP -BA#46, MLB#29
5. Atlanta - Kyle Wright, RHP - In the majors (BA#37, MLB#30)
6. Oakland - Austin Beck, OF - Unranked
7. Arizona - Pavin Smith, 1B - Unranked
8. PHILADELPHIA - Adam Haseley, OF - Unranked
9. Milwaukee - Keston Hiura, INF - BA#17, MLB#20
10. Los Angeles (AL) - Jo Adell, OF - BA#6, MLB#14

2018
1. Detroit - Casey Mize, RHP - BA#16, MLB#17
2. San Francisco - Joey Bart, C - BA#26, MLB#22
3. PHILADELPHIA - Alec Bohm, 3B - BA#63, MLB#57
4. Chicago (AL) - Nick Madrigal, INF -BA#41, MLB#45
5. Cincinnati - Jonathan India, 3B - BA#49, MLB#51
6. New York (NL) - Jerrod Kelenic, OF - BA#65, MLB#54
7. San Diego - Ryan Weathers, RHP - MLB#90
8. Atlanta - Carter Stewart, RHP - UNSIGNED
9. Oakland - Kyler Murray, OF - UNSIGNED
10. Pittsburgh - Travis Swaggerty, OF - MLB#84

[Squire]

What relevance is anything before Almaraz/Klentak? Almaraz's picks must be good because Arbuckle/Wolever drafted Burrell, Myers, Utley, Floyd, Hamels, Nola?

[zambonir]

Plus the Gillick/RAJ/Wolever era was pretty awful, albeit as much for giving up picks than making them (and from the winning, of course). Though you do have to include all the talent they used to get players too.

To me there's not much to argue about, except what else are we gonna do? Time will tell whether the Phillies are smarter than other teams and conventional wisdom. I don't think they drafted poorly or ambitiously/unconventionally in any year though. There's always what might have beens. But it's also true that with four Top 10 picks in a row you'd like one of them to be someone everybody agrees on and is love with, not just someone where we can say, "it's too soon," or "the naysayers are wrong."

[julio]

What relevance is anything before Almaraz/Klentak? Almaraz's picks must be good because Arbuckle/Wolever drafted Burrell, Myers, Utley, Floyd, Hamels, Nola?

Well, I might just as well ask what relevance is there, really, to trying to evaluate the last four drafts before the returns are in? Exit polls as of 2 pm on election day can be thoroughly misleading.

Obviously, one can't evaluate Almaraz' performance based on those who went before. On the other hand, it might be interesting to mine the archives here, and see what posters here were saying about the Arbuckle/Wolever/Amaro draft record about four years ago. I don't know what you'd find, but it's my sense that there is a tendency among many of our regular posters to focus on whatever negatives may be available.

[zambonir]

Matt Breen in March:

One last Phillies roster prediction | Extra Innings

The Phillies this spring have used their last five first-round picks: Aaron Nola, Cornelius Randolph, Mickey Moniak, Adam Haseley, and Bohm. The four first-round picks before Nola in 2014 are no longer with the Phillies, and three of the four are out of baseball.

I actually think that is incorrect (regardless of whether you count true first-rounders or comp first-rounders). But If you really want to make a case for reflexive negativity about Arbuckle/Wolever/RAJ I think you definitely have to go back more than 10 years. Anyone who was overly negative between 2008 and 2013 was right.

[bigegypt0417]

I’m basing it on everything I’ve ever read about them from an evaluation standpoint. YMMV.

As I’ve said many times, to have drafted 4 top 10 picks in a row, including a 1.1, and for NONE of them to look likely to be even an above average regular is...abysmal.

Which reports have you read from an evaluation standpoint that said NONE of them have the upside to be even an above average regular?

[Philsmania]

2016 jumps out as being collectively bad with only four players ranked and only three of them--one of them just barely--in the top 50. Almost reminds me of 1989, the Year of the Bust--the Phillies took Jeff Jackson at #4 and he turned out to be one of three guys in the top ten who didn't make it to The Show while two others had only brief, undistinguished careers. Meanwhile, six teams passed on eventual HOFer Frank Thomas.

[Squire]

Kiley McDaniel did his first mock draft today through 10 picks...this seems like an informed mock based on some sources/connections:

1. Orioles - Adley Rutschman, C, Oregon State
2. Royals - Bobby Witt, Jr., SS, HS
3. White Sox - Andrew Vaughan, 1B, Cal
4. Marlins - C.J. Abrams, SS, HS
5. Tigers - Riley Greene, OF, HS
6. Padres - Nick Lodolo, LHP, TCU
7. Reds- J.J. Bleday, OF, Vanderbilt
8. Rangers - Alex Manoah, RHP, WVU
9. Braves - Hunter Bishop, OF, Arizona State
10. Giants - Bryson Stott, SS, UNLV

Others rising - LHP Zack Thompson, Kentucky, Corbin Carroll, OF, HS, Michael Busch, 1B, UNC, Josh Jung, 3B, Texas Tech

[schooldoc]

Squire--assuming McDaniel's mock holds, who would be, say, your top 3 choices for the Phils at 14?

[allentown]

That's a very position player heavy top 10, and top 14 if those other 4 guys slot next.

[Squire]

Well my track record is probably as bad as the current administration (though I cost them less). I'd go pitcher since we have picked 4 straight position players. I like Zack Thompson from UKentucky. I'd be ok with one of the HS arms like Malone or Allen or Leiter (if signable)

[allentown]

I like your strategy, if the draft unfolds as this guy predicts. It's hard to believe things are so unbalanced that 11 of the top 14 prospects are hitters. Also becoming hard to imagine that we'll make a good pick if we decide to go with a position player.

[Squire]

BA recent mock gave us RHP Jackson Rutledge from San Jacinto JC and MLB.com mock gave us 3B Josh Jung from Texas Tech.

To be candid I think kiley McDaniel is the guy with the better sources than these guys

[schooldoc]

Keith Law mock draft coming Monday.

[fish]

BA recent mock gave us RHP Jackson Rutledge from San Jacinto JC and MLB.com mock gave us 3B Josh Jung from Texas Tech.

I’m not keen on either of those guys. Rutledge’s stuff looks great, but he went from having a delivery with too many moving parts to on that looks like a short-arm. Looks like the second coming of Jeff Jude’s.

Jung just doesn’t look like more than a AAA type to me.

Based on mlb’s list of guys in the area of the pick, I’d go high school RHP Matt Allen. Please no Corbin Caroll. Seems like the kind of guy they like, or used to like before last year - hit tool and no size.

[Squire]

I'm not sure I trust my own instincts anymore. I'm hoping that Zach Thompson gets to us at 14. I'm starting to doubt our ability to develop any hitters at all. Though i am buoyed that Bohm seems to be on an upswing.

[SerAdonisKingery]

Law just mocked Thompson to us at #14. Said he also heard we were interested in HS, SS, Gunnar Henderson.

[Squire]

BA currently has Henderson at 39 overall and MLB.com has him at 33 overall. Both indicate his stock is rising rather than falling.

[kmc1019]

B.com has him at

Would love to land Thompson at 14. I think Moniak and Haseley were both players who rose quickly in the months leading up to the draft, so I am afraid of a similar situation with Henderson. Sustained superior performance or long-known dominant tools portend a better chance for making the bigs.